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post #1 of 4 (permalink) Old 04-12-2010, 05:02 PM Thread Starter
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NBA, last week of the regular season

And in the Western Conference it's anything goes for seeds 2-8. Hope the Mavs can hold onto number 2. Interesting article for your reading pleasure.

Quote:
Chaos theory reigns over NBA playoff scenarios
Mon Apr 12,2010 2:17 AM ET By Kurt Helin

The last one of the seemingly eternal NBA regular season. It tips off at 10:30 p.m. (Eastern) on Wednesday night, Utah Jazz at the Phoenix Suns.

Until that game ends well after midnight, we are not going to know all the first round playoff matchups. It has just been that kind of season. With just three days remaining of games we still almost need Stephen Hawking to figure out and explain all the potential playoff scenarios out there.

The Eastern conference is complex. For the Western Conference, maybe Hawking isn't the guy, we need Edward Lorenz, the father of Chaos Theory. (Well, except he's been dead for a couple years.)

Out in the West, we know the teams and that the Lakers are the top seed. That's about it. It could be just about anybody playing just about anybody -- four games still separate seeds two and eight. It's so chaotic that one team with at least 51 wins this season (likely 52) will not have home court advantage.

In practice the West is really two tiers (behind the Lakers): The Mavericks, Suns, Jazz and Nuggets fighting for seeds two through six; then the Spurs, Trail Blazers and Thunder fighting for six through eight.

Dallas is the current holder of the second seed out West, with a 53-27 record. Phoenix, Utah and Denver all are a game back at 52-28. With two games left, anyone of them can finish either as the two seed or the six.

Two big games will decide a lot of this and the Suns are in both -- they play Denver Tuesday then Utah on Wednesday. Win both and they could be the two seed. However, that will most likely be Dallas because of their current one-game lead -- and they have a gimme against the Clippers on Monday night. But then comes a game on Wednesday night against San Antonio where both teams could want to win for playoff positioning reasons.

Utah should get a win Tuesday against Golden State. Then comes the big Wednesday night showdown with the Suns. The scenarios for what that game could mean is where we need Hawking.

As for the lower tier of the West, Oklahoma City is likely facing the Lakers in the first round -- unless they can beat Portland Monday night. The race in this second tier is actually tighter than the top -- Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Portland all have 49 wins.

Which makes the Thunder/Trail Blazers game huge. At the same time as that game, San Antonio will almost certainly be beating the dead horse of Minnesota to get win 50. The bottom like is the loser of the Oklahoma City/Portland game almost certainly gets the Lakers.

Just to make it more complex, San Antonio owns the tiebreaker over Oklahoma City but Portland owns it over the Spurs. That Monday night game between the Thunder and Blazers decide who has that tiebreaker.

Thank Buddha the East is a little more straightforward. A little. We know a couple things for sure: The Cavaliers are the top seed, but we're not sure who they will play yet. We are also sure that Orlando is the two seed and will likely play first-time playoff participants Charlotte.

Chicago's blowout win over the Raptors in Toronto Sunday gives them a one game lead and the advantage, for that eighth and final spot and the "reward" of playing Cleveland. But the Raptors own the tiebreaker with the Bulls. Chicago has two games left -- Boston on Tuesday, then Charlotte on the second night. Two playoff teams. Toronto's two games left are against teams bound for the lottery, Detroit and New York.

That said, the Raptors have yet to win since Bosh was injured, can they really overtake the Bulls now? Not likely. The Bulls should hold on to the eighth spot. But with unpredictable teams like this "should" means little.

Also out East, Boston and Atlanta will finish as the three and four seeds, in some order, and will face Miami or Milwaukee, in some order. The Bucks may have the most say in how this finishes up -- they face the Hawks and the Celtics.

Atlanta has a one game lead on Boston for the three-seed, and plays the Bucks then the Cavaliers (who likely will rest a lot of players). Boston faces the very desperate Bulls followed by the Bucks. The smart money would say Atlanta remains the three seed. But again the Bucks get a big say.

And those Bucks need their wins, Miami's two remaining games are against the Sixers and Nets, two games the hot Heat should win. Milwaukee will have a tough time getting two wins. Again, look for the Heat to be the five seed (against Boston) and the Hawks to get the Bucks.

But when Chaos Theory is operating, anything can happen.



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post #2 of 4 (permalink) Old 04-12-2010, 05:13 PM
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It says that Dallas could finish as low as the 6th seed, but that's not true the lowest they can finish is the 4th seed! We already clinched the division, and have home court atleast through the first round. If we finish with the 2nd seed, and we should! then we have home court until Western Conference Finals with the Lakers... GO MAVS!!!!!

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post #3 of 4 (permalink) Old 04-12-2010, 05:16 PM
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1. The Mavs have clinched home-court in the first round. No ifs, ands or buts there.


2. The Mavs can clinch at least the third seed if they win tonight.


3. The Mavs are the No. 2 seed if they win out and …



4. Can be the No. 2 seed with one loss AND either two Denver wins OR one Utah loss.


5. As it stands right now the Mavs first-round opponent could be any one of San Antonio, Portland, OKC, or Phoenix.


6. But, if the Mavs win tonight, they cannot play Phoenix in the first round.


7. If the Mavs win tonight and the Spurs and Blazers both win, then the Mavs will play either the Spurs or Blazers. (OKC would be locked in at No. 8 in that case.)


8. Regardless of the results of the last few games: Portland will have tiebreaker over both SA and OKC.
San Antonio will have tiebreaker over OKC. OKC will lose all tiebreakers. So it looks like OKC's one feasible route out of eighth is to win out. … all of which lessens the likelihood of a Dallas-OKC meeting in Round 1.



9. If the Mavs win tonight and the Spurs lose (home Minny) or OKC wins at Portland (or both), then San Antonio, OKC, and Portland are all still possibilities in Round 1.


10. Any number of possibilities exist if the Mavs don’t win tonight … but there is no reason to even think about that “if’’… right?
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post #4 of 4 (permalink) Old 04-12-2010, 08:27 PM
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As a Spurs fan, I really don't want the Mavs in the 1st round. Mavs just aren't a good matchup and are too athletic. I'd rather have Denver, who is too unstable to count on in the post-season, or LA who is struggling and really doesn't have too many weapons beyond Kobe and Gasol. I don't care how good the Lakers record is, I don't think they're as good as it shows.

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