Great stats, and I appreciate the effort. The "skewed" parts are the concerns for me. Look at what a Tech team can do to your "pass defense" stats. Whether you beat them or not, they will throw for a lot of yards.
These two teams really are different in their philosophies. If UT (big "if") can stop the run, "Bama will be in trouble. If McCoy can't throw, UT has no "run" option.
McCoy is the key to the entire game. UT goes as he goes.
you want to know how big of a fucking nerd I am? Check out this spread sheet I did a few weeks back. I compiled all of the data, did some simple math and came up with a prediction for points, rushing yards and passing yards for both Alabama and Texas.
It is all based on ratios of how each Texas and Alabama did against their conference opponents since that is the majority of their schedule. I then compared the conference averages to try and normalize the numbers for the pass happy Big 12 and the run happy SEC. Then compared each team to the the opposing conference average. Did it for both offense and defense for each team. Took the average and came up the predicted scores and yards.
It is purely academic and I was more or less curious how it would compare to what actually a happens. I was going to scrub it some more to try and factor in special teams, turnovers and defensive scoring a bit more, but I never got the chance.
So, I say 21-17 Alabama, but Texas has a little bit more offense than Alabama. I think what it really shows is that these teams are pretty equal, maybe more than we thought, but then again, it is just straight math and you can't account for the human element that will surely be present.