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post #1 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 02:47 PM Thread Starter
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Early winners and losers of the free agency period.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/column...ohn&id=2789661

Patriots, 49ers among early winners


Maybe it's too early to pick winners and losers in the first week of free agency, but we might as well try.

The pace, as expected, has been crazy. The market should start slowing down, and the patient teams -- those waiting for lower-priced players -- should start making their moves.

It's impossible to project how the moves of the past few days will change a team's fortune in 2007, but it is possible to pick some winners and losers.

Winners

San Francisco1. San Francisco 49ers: They are on the right path. After signing cornerback Nate Clements, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, linebacker Tully Banta-Cain and safety Michael Lewis, the 49ers are looking more like a 3-4 defense. Franklin will help at nose tackle. Clements matches up against the top receivers on an opposing team. Lewis is a physical safety, and Banta-Cain should improve the team's speed at linebacker. Ashley Lelie will help because he's different from the other San Francisco receivers. He has speed and should be able to help in the red zone. The 49ers aren't done. They still have plenty of money and plenty of draft choices to improve their team.

New England2. New England Patriots: Too bad they didn't do this last year. Had they been this aggressive in free agency then, they might have added that one receiver or one defensive back who could have led them back to the Super Bowl. Linebacker Adalius Thomas is one of the best signings of the offseason. Although he probably won't have as many sacks or tackles as he had in Baltimore, Thomas will be a great weapon for brilliant Bill Belichick. Halfback Sammy Morris and tight end Kyle Brady are good role players for the offense. The most interesting move was trading two draft picks (their second- and seventh-round picks) to Miami for 5-foot-8 Wes Welker. The Patriots like smaller receivers who are quick out of breaks. Although they might have overpaid in draft choice compensation, they acquired a receiver they liked as opposed to just taking guys off the street the way they did last year.

Miami3. Miami Dolphins: Talk about attitude. The Dolphins have a 3-4 defense with Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Joey Porter. This looks like an AFC Pro Bowl team. Porter was a great signing. Taylor can get the sacks and force fumbles. Porter and Thomas can be the leaders. The other great part of Miami's offseason is that it has acquired three additional draft choices -- in the second, sixth and seventh rounds -- in trades. This franchise traded away too many draft choices over the years and needs to start getting younger. With nine draft choices in hand and good positioning in the draft, the Dolphins are off to a good start.

Tampa Bay4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: So much for getting younger. They've added Jeff Garcia at quarterback and Kevin Carter at defensive end, along with signing some role players. The Garcia move could be a great one. The Bucs needed a feisty leader. Although there is no guarantee he will start, Garcia gives Jon Gruden a type of quarterback he hasn't had since Brian Griese was with the Bucs. Gruden runs a complicated system. Garcia should pick it up with no problem. Tampa Bay also added veteran left tackle Luke Petitgout and will look to sign another veteran for the line.

Denver5. Denver Broncos: You have to love the Travis Henry move. He's a 1,200-yard back who should flourish in Mike Shanahan's zone blocking scheme. Plus, it didn't cost the team a draft choice. The Broncos also added the top tight end on the free-agent market, Daniel Graham. Although cornerback Dre' Bly isn't happy about his trade to Denver, the Broncos still picked up a commodity who can either help their defense as a starter or net them draft picks in a trade. Denver might have to let some defenders go to free some cap room, and those losses have to be monitored.

Losers

Baltimore1. Baltimore Ravens: They were losers at the beginning of free agency last year but ended up winners, and they could still do the same this year. Ozzie Newsome is one of the best general managers in the game, so he will be active in the weeks ahead. But the Ravens are starting in a hole. They've lost Thomas, Franklin, fullback Ovie Mughelli and right tackle Tony Pashos. They also cut halfback Jamal Lewis, but they probably will get him re-signed.

Green Bay2. Green Bay Packers: The Packers fell in a hole early by creating a void at halfback with the departure of Ahman Green. Even though they wanted to re-sign him, they didn't want to go over $5 million a year to keep him. They also lost tight end David Martin. Although the Martin loss to Miami might not be a big one, Green Bay is becoming thin at tight end. Bubba Franks didn't have a great year. The Packers need a good offseason to fix their defense, but holes are starting to open in the offense that have to be addressed as well.

New York3. New York Giants: They have a gaping hole at left tackle after they released Petitgout and Bob Whitfield retired. Left tackle is a tough position to replace, and New York is getting a feel for that. Leonard Davis could have received $24 million in guarantees had he signed on as a left tackle for the Giants, but he opted to sign with the Cowboys. The team also has holes at linebacker after releasing Carlos Emmons and LaVar Arrington. The Giants could be losing kicker Jay Feeley as well.

Oakland4. Oakland Raiders: The Raiders don't have a starting quarterback. Although some might say that has been the case since Rich Gannon retired, Oakland has to figure out what to do at its most critical position. As the draft gets closer, Al Davis will be torn. He's going to fall in love with Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Who wouldn't? He's 239 pounds, runs a 4.35 in the 40 and jumps more than 45 inches vertically. JaMarcus Russell is the logical choice at quarterback, but we'll see whether the Raiders are logical. They also have a hole at right tackle after losing Langston Walker to Buffalo for $5 million a year. It wasn't as though Oakland had the league's best offensive line, so it can afford to lose players.

Houston5. Houston Texans: They suffered a blow when Jake Plummer was traded to Tampa Bay, then retired. They want an upgrade at quarterback so they can move David Carr in a trade. For now, they have to hold on to him and say he is the starter. The offensive line still has problems, and who knows how long it's going to take to fix that area? Green was an interesting signing, but the team needs a receiver on the other side of Andre Johnson after releasing Eric Moulds. So far, the Texans haven't made enough offensive moves to move forward in the increasingly tough AFC South.
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post #2 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 03:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollywood
Garcia gives Jon Gruden a type of quarterback he hasn't had since Brian Griese was with the Bucs.
Great comparison LOL Griese sucked
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post #3 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Hollywood
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Houston5. Houston Texans: They suffered a blow when Jake Plummer was traded to Tampa Bay, then retired. They want an upgrade at quarterback so they can move David Carr in a trade. For now, they have to hold on to him and say he is the starter. The offensive line still has problems, and who knows how long it's going to take to fix that area? Green was an interesting signing, but the team needs a receiver on the other side of Andre Johnson after releasing Eric Moulds. So far, the Texans haven't made enough offensive moves to move forward in the increasingly tough AFC South.
Contrary to belief this is their biggest problem. NOBODY CAN PROTECT CARR. Their offensive line sucks ass. Carr is a decent QB! He isnt as agile as a VY or Vick and that hurts it even more, but without the protection, which they lack like a mofo, he takes the brunt of it. Does no one realize that??

Ive hated Houston football ever since they sold out the Oilers. Their management is fucking horrible. They have made the most STUUUUUPID calls lately. No Bush, No VY, and now this.

CANADIANS = DOUCHERS

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post #4 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 04:21 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by 1BAD06
Contrary to belief this is their biggest problem. NOBODY CAN PROTECT CARR. Their offensive line sucks ass. Carr is a decent QB! He isnt as agile as a VY or Vick and that hurts it even more, but without the protection, which they lack like a mofo, he takes the brunt of it. Does no one realize that??

Ive hated Houston football ever since they sold out the Oilers. Their management is fucking horrible. They have made the most STUUUUUPID calls lately. No Bush, No VY, and now this.
I agree. The Texans are ruining that guy. He gets drafted by anyone else, he's doing ok.
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post #5 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 04:29 PM
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I agree. The Texans are ruining that guy. He gets drafted by anyone else, he's doing ok.
Totally agree. I was hoping they would trade him off to a team that could use him. He would thrive on any other team, I know it.

CANADIANS = DOUCHERS

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post #6 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 04:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollywood
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/column...ohn&id=2789661

Miami3. Miami Dolphins: Talk about attitude. The Dolphins have a 3-4 defense with Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Joey Porter. This looks like an AFC Pro Bowl team. Porter was a great signing. Taylor can get the sacks and force fumbles. Porter and Thomas can be the leaders. The other great part of Miami's offseason is that it has acquired three additional draft choices -- in the second, sixth and seventh rounds -- in trades. This franchise traded away too many draft choices over the years and needs to start getting younger. With nine draft choices in hand and good positioning in the draft, the Dolphins are off to a good start.
Thank goodness the Dolphins are finally making some good decisions. They had the #4 Defense in the league last year, and they haven't lost anyone significant and gained Joey Porter... should be a great defense if everyone stays healthy.

Really hope something good comes along for the offense, Culpepper has the potential to be great again, but that bum knee is worrying... also they have nothing in the way of WR's. Hoepfully some of this can be addressed in FA and in the Draft.

Either way, Ricky Williams return will definately spark things up again... even with all his off the field problems, the guy can still run like few others in the league.

.
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post #7 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 05:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Kenny_Stang

Really hope something good comes along for the offense, Culpepper has the potential to be great again, but that bum knee is worrying... also they have nothing in the way of WR's. Hoepfully some of this can be addressed in FA and in the Draft.
The problem with Culpepper isn't his knee, it is that he is one of the most overrated QBs in the league.
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post #8 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 06:26 PM
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Clements I'd think would improve just about any defense in the league, so good for them. But, maybe they should get rid of this guy...
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post #9 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 06:41 PM
 
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the packers have not made a big splash quite yest in free agency, but i also dont think they have lost much either. ahman green is definitely on his downside and not worth anything close to 5 million/yr. david martin was a 3rd stringer starting the season. the packers will most likely draft a runningback in peterson or lynch, which will fill that need. i wonder what people will say if they sign moss, who they are rumored to be the front runners to do so.
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post #10 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-07-2007, 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted by LannyN9NE
The problem with Culpepper isn't his knee, it is that he is one of the most overrated QBs in the league.
I know what you mean, but if you think so, check out this quote a member from a Dolphins board posted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fineas
Culpepper has been the most productive QB in NFL history. When you account for his rushing numbers, his production has been absolutely phenomenal. Over his career, Culpepper has 164 total TDs in 81 games, an average of more than 2 TDs per game. Compare that to the greatest QBs (production-wise) in NFL history:

Marino (429 in 242 games, an average of 1.77)
Favre (408 in 225 games, an average of 1.81)
PManning (253 in 128 games, an average of 1.97)
KWarner (121 in 73 games, an average of 1.65)

In short, Culpepper is the most prolific TD scoring QB on a per game basis in NFL history.

Next, look at total yards (rushing and passing). Culpepper has 22,639 total yards in 81 games, an average of 279.5 yards per game. Compare that to the greatest QBs (production-wise) in NFL history:

Marino (61448 in 242 games, an average of 254 yards per game)
Favre (55360 in 225 games, an average of 246 yards per game)
PManning (33854 in 128 games, an average of 264.5 yards per game)
KWarner (19474 in 73 games, an average of 266.7 yards per game)

So Culpepper is also the most productive QB in terms of yards from scrimmage in NFL history on a per game basis.

Then compare his INTs to the aforementioned guys. Culpepper has 86 in 81 games, an average of 1.06 per game.

Marino (1.04 per game)
Favre (1.13 per game)
PManning (1.015 per game)
KWarner (1.07 per game)

So Daunte is the most productive QB (on a per game basis) in NFL history in terms of both yards and TDs. His interception rate is comparable to or better than any of the guys that are even close (and they're not that close).
His completion percentage of 64.4 is the second-best in NFL history. And that is not in a dink-and-dunk West Coast offense. Itís not terribly surprising, as he holds the single season NCAA record for completion percentage at 73.4%. That is with a vertical passing game. In 2004 he completed an incredible 17 of 34 passes thrown more than 31 yards from scrimmage in the air. And no, it was not because of jump balls to Moss -- Moss caught only 3 of them.
Physically, he has a lot more size and speed than any QB should be allowed to have. He's the size of a DE and runs like a fullback. His rushing numbers are second only to Michael Vick among QBs.
This is only a small piece of the "Culpepper Manifesto", if you want to read the whole thing, check out the original thread: http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/sh...d.php?t=130336

As I said, Culpepper has proved in the past that he has the ability to be one of the best QB's in the league if he returns to form.

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post #11 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 07:41 AM
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How did Culpepper do after he lost Randy Moss? I dont feel like looking up stats but I think he sucked.
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post #12 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 10:23 AM
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How did Culpepper do after he lost Randy Moss? I dont feel like looking up stats but I think he sucked.
Culpepper's great numbers are not because of Randy Moss -- any more than Montana/Young were products of Rice. Or any more than Manning is a product of Harrison. Almost every great QB has had some great WRs. In 2004, Moss missed 3 games and was just a decoy in 2 others. In those 5 games, Culpepper completed 113 of 166 passes (68%) for 1179 yards, 9 TDs and 3 INTs, which comes out to a QB rating of 99. In other games, he was hurt and simply didnít do much. For that season, if you exclude passes thrown to Moss, he completed 330 of 463 passes (71.3%), for 3950 yards and 26 TDs. Even if you assume that none of his INTs were on passes thrown to Moss, which is doubtful, his QB rating excluding Moss was 105.9. Moreover, Moss clearly didn't make Kerry Collins into a Pro Bowler, even though he was opposite other quality WRs.

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post #13 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 10:43 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Kenny_Stang
Culpepper's great numbers are not because of Randy Moss -- any more than Montana/Young were products of Rice. Or any more than Manning is a product of Harrison. Almost every great QB has had some great WRs. In 2004, Moss missed 3 games and was just a decoy in 2 others. In those 5 games, Culpepper completed 113 of 166 passes (68%) for 1179 yards, 9 TDs and 3 INTs, which comes out to a QB rating of 99. In other games, he was hurt and simply didnít do much. For that season, if you exclude passes thrown to Moss, he completed 330 of 463 passes (71.3%), for 3950 yards and 26 TDs. Even if you assume that none of his INTs were on passes thrown to Moss, which is doubtful, his QB rating excluding Moss was 105.9. Moreover, Moss clearly didn't make Kerry Collins into a Pro Bowler, even though he was opposite other quality WRs.
Yea, I get a bit aggrivated with the Montana wasn't that great without Rice argument thrown out by the haters. They tend to forget he won 2 superbowls prior to Rice's arrival.
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post #14 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 11:20 AM
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Losers

Baltimore1. Baltimore Ravens: They were losers at the beginning of free agency last year but ended up winners, and they could still do the same this year. Ozzie Newsome is one of the best general managers in the game, so he will be active in the weeks ahead. But the Ravens are starting in a hole. They've lost Thomas, Franklin, fullback Ovie Mughelli and right tackle Tony Pashos. They also cut halfback Jamal Lewis, but they probably will get him re-signed..
Lewis is now a Cleveland brown

Quote:
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Houston5. Houston Texans: They suffered a blow when Jake Plummer was traded to Tampa Bay, then retired. They want an upgrade at quarterback so they can move David Carr in a trade. For now, they have to hold on to him and say he is the starter. The offensive line still has problems, and who knows how long it's going to take to fix that area? Green was an interesting signing, but the team needs a receiver on the other side of Andre Johnson after releasing Eric Moulds. So far, the Texans haven't made enough offensive moves to move forward in the increasingly tough AFC South.
I agree Carr would be a very good qb on a different team, I hope they trade him to someone that can use him

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post #15 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Kenny_Stang
Culpepper's great numbers are not because of Randy Moss -- any more than Montana/Young were products of Rice. Or any more than Manning is a product of Harrison. Almost every great QB has had some great WRs. In 2004, Moss missed 3 games and was just a decoy in 2 others. In those 5 games, Culpepper completed 113 of 166 passes (68%) for 1179 yards, 9 TDs and 3 INTs, which comes out to a QB rating of 99. In other games, he was hurt and simply didnít do much. For that season, if you exclude passes thrown to Moss, he completed 330 of 463 passes (71.3%), for 3950 yards and 26 TDs. Even if you assume that none of his INTs were on passes thrown to Moss, which is doubtful, his QB rating excluding Moss was 105.9. Moreover, Moss clearly didn't make Kerry Collins into a Pro Bowler, even though he was opposite other quality WRs.
You are comparing Culpepper to proven winners. He hasnt won shit and will not be considered a top 10 all time QB. Were his numbers a product of the system? I just dont see him as an elite QB. Moss helped him more then you give him credit for, he opened up the field for him to fire at the other recievers in single coverage.
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post #16 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by YoBro
You are comparing Culpepper to proven winners. He hasnt won shit and will not be considered a top 10 all time QB. Were his numbers a product of the system? I just dont see him as an elite QB. Moss helped him more then you give him credit for, he opened up the field for him to fire at the other recievers in single coverage.
I think they both benifited from each other, neither has been great without the other. I'm not saying he is a top ten of all time QB, but he definately can be a top 10 in the league today.

I think that a healthy Culpepper can be a very good QB. He may not have won it all, but he's won plenty of games, and been a Pro-Bowler three times.

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post #17 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Kenny_Stang
I think they both benifited from each other, neither has been great without the other. I'm not saying he is a top ten of all time QB, but he definately can be a top 10 in the league today.

I think that a healthy Culpepper can be a very good QB. He may not have won it all, but he's won plenty of games, and been a Pro-Bowler three times.
I agree they both benefited from each other but I think his time as even a top 10 is done. Only time will tell.
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post #18 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by YoBro
You are comparing Culpepper to proven winners. He hasnt won shit and will not be considered a top 10 all time QB. Were his numbers a product of the system? I just dont see him as an elite QB. Moss helped him more then you give him credit for, he opened up the field for him to fire at the other recievers in single coverage.
x2, I dont think he is even close to a current top 10 imo. And dont forget Carter out there on the other side of Moss for a while, hes wasnt too shabby himself. Thats two very good wideouts and the three of em seemed to work well together. Culpepper needs those two back or he will continue to get worse.

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post #19 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-08-2007, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by SouthernSVT
x2, I dont think he is even close to a current top 10 imo. And dont forget Carter out there on the other side of Moss for a while, hes wasnt too shabby himself. Thats two very good wideouts and the three of em seemed to work well together. Culpepper needs those two back or he will continue to get worse.
Carter wasn't there in 2004 when Culpepper had his best year... also that same year Moss was injured 3 games and was basically a decoy in 2 others... and that didn't slow Culpepper down.

As was stated, good players make others arround them look good too, sure Culpepper benifitted from Moss and maybe Carter (who was only around for 1 year before he left), but you can also point out that Culpepper made them look very good as well.

I don't think he is Top 10 right now, but he can be, and he has been in the past. I think people are quick to dismiss him, but he has shown in the past that he can be a very good QB, all that remains is to see if he can return to past form.

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post #20 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-11-2007, 09:57 PM
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IMHO, Denver and New England top the list of who have had the best F/A period so far.

Denver:

Travis Henry
Dre Bly
Daniel Graham
Dan Wilkinson

New England:

Adalius Thomas
Wes Welker
Kyle Brady
Sammy Morris
Donte Stallworth

I'm surprised the Cowboys didn't do more than they did with the way their defense suffered down the stretch, especially at the safety position. They should have made a run at Deon Grant, who signed w/Seattle, and should try to make a run at Mike Doss. I guess they feel that they can fill the need through the draft. Mike Griffin would look pretty good in a Cowboys uniform.
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post #21 of 21 (permalink) Old 03-12-2007, 02:28 AM
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Originally Posted by YoBro
Were his numbers a product of the system? I just dont see him as an elite QB.
but you could make that arguement about troy, joe, and manning.

though I think manning is a great qb
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