Quote:
Originally Posted by kaaronc
If you are betting more than 10 games a week, then there is a reason you are not hitting your target rate of 60%. I am not trying to bash you, I am just saying that there is no way any one person has the time to handicap more than that per week. I do a lot of research on the games I play, and I average about 6 plays per week over the course of football, mlb playoffs, nba, and the occasional nhl playoff game. I do not play regular season mlb. I am very selective and I think that has something to do with the success that I have had over the years. That is just me and there is never a 100% winner, so yes I understand my way is not perfect, it just works for me. If you would like I can let you see who/what/when I am playing this week and you can give your analysis too .......maybe both of us can benefit from it.
Let me give you an example...
Lets say you have two bettors, one who picked 5 games and one who picked 14 games.
The first one wins 3 out of 5, for a 60% rate. The second one wins 8 out of 14 for a 57% rate.
After vig, the 5 bet person has .8 units of profit. After vig, the 14 bet person has about 1.3 units.
If the goal is to make money, it isn't hard to decide which one is making more.
A small advantage over a large period of time is powerful. Any math major will tell that a profit is more assured with a 200 bets with a 55% expectation than from a 50 bet 60% expectation. The reason is because the greater number of samplings produces a greater probabilty that the expectation can be met.
The more bets, the more predictable the outcome. If you are betting to win, you must be concerned more with profits than you are winning percentage.
It's the way the craps table operates. The pass line gives the house less than a 51% expectation. But, if you ask a Casino executive what the "drop percentage" is at a craps table, it is about 20%. A small advantage applied enough times insures a profit. This is why you see billboards all over LV touting craps, but not the wheel of fortune (which gives the house about 8 times the win percentage over craps).
If a sports bettor is has a success rate of 60%+ then he is leaving money on the table, he isn't applying all his advantages and thus not making as he could or should.
If you have 200 opinions during an NFL season (pointspreads and totals) you are more assured of your expectation than if you have 100 opinions a year.
I look at it as an investment. If I have a 10,000 bank roll and risk 2.2% on each opinion and had 2000 opinions over 12 months with a win rate of 53%, I'd have 1060 wins and 940 losers. I'd have $212,000 in wins and $206,800 in losses. A total profit of $5,200. I've never made 52% a year in the stock market.
Now, we used a relatively small win rate, 53%. Flipping a coin I can expect 50/50, so just by guessing (with no analysis) I'd expect 1000 wins in 2000. Paying relatively small attention to the news, a small amount of research, etc. I would expect I can increase that percentage whereas I can win 530 out of 1000 bets.