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post #1 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-01-2004, 01:21 PM Thread Starter
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Free NFL picks.. week 4

i have hit the first 3 weeks in a row...... here's a chance for you to make some $$


4team13point teaser
GB +6
INDY +9.5
NJJ +7
CAR +9.5
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post #2 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-05-2004, 01:12 PM
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Hmmm 1-4, hope your first 3 weeks were better

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post #3 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-05-2004, 05:24 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stroked87
Hmmm 1-4, hope your first 3 weeks were better

it's only 1 bet... so, 0-1, and actually that was a 2-2 record..... but i am 3-1 overall on my posts on here .... +$1852 through 4 weeks.. thanks
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post #4 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-05-2004, 05:26 PM
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Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaaronc
it's only 1 bet... so, 0-1, but 3-1 overall on my posts on here .... +$1852 through 4 weeks.. thanks

SWEET!!!

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post #5 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-05-2004, 06:31 PM
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Hell, if I can hit 60% (straight up) on my picks, I wouldn't be working for a living.

My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)
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post #6 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-05-2004, 08:16 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Hell, if I can hit 60% (straight up) on my picks, I wouldn't be working for a living.

i don't really.... i am a mortgage banker.... i do a lot of sitting around and a lot of cordinating..... and i don't think 60% is enough, unless you're bet 1k or more per game... say you bet 1k per game, and play 10 games, then you only make $1600 if you win 6 outta 10.... i bet a lot and i don't bet 10 games a week.. i usually play 5 or 6 games max per week

i have a pretty good system that stays within my limitations...
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post #7 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 07:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaaronc
i don't really.... i am a mortgage banker.... i do a lot of sitting around and a lot of cordinating..... and i don't think 60% is enough, unless you're bet 1k or more per game... say you bet 1k per game, and play 10 games, then you only make $1600 if you win 6 outta 10.... i bet a lot and i don't bet 10 games a week.. i usually play 5 or 6 games max per week

i have a pretty good system that stays within my limitations...
Most successful full time sports gamblers would kill for a 60% hit rate.

You don't bet alot if you are betting 5 or 6 games a week.

My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)
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post #8 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 10:46 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Most successful full time sports gamblers would kill for a 60% hit rate.

You don't bet alot if you are betting 5 or 6 games a week.

If you are betting more than 10 games a week, then there is a reason you are not hitting your target rate of 60%. I am not trying to bash you, I am just saying that there is no way anyone one person has time to handicap more than that per week. I do a lot of research on the games I play, and I average about 6 plays per week over the course of football, mlb playoffs, nba, and the occasional nhl playoff game. I do not play regular season mlb. I am very selective and I think that has something to do with the success that I have had over the years. That is just me and there is never a 100% winner, so yes I understand my way is not perfect, it just works for me. If you would like I can let you see who/what/when I am playing this week and you can give your analysis too .......maybe both of us can benefit from it.
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post #9 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-06-2004, 10:47 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Most successful full time sports gamblers would kill for a 60% hit rate.

You don't bet alot if you are betting 5 or 6 games a week.

If you are betting more than 10 games a week, then there is a reason you are not hitting your target rate of 60%. I am not trying to bash you, I am just saying that there is no way any one person has the time to handicap more than that per week. I do a lot of research on the games I play, and I average about 6 plays per week over the course of football, mlb playoffs, nba, and the occasional nhl playoff game. I do not play regular season mlb. I am very selective and I think that has something to do with the success that I have had over the years. That is just me and there is never a 100% winner, so yes I understand my way is not perfect, it just works for me. If you would like I can let you see who/what/when I am playing this week and you can give your analysis too .......maybe both of us can benefit from it.
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post #10 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-07-2004, 09:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaaronc
If you are betting more than 10 games a week, then there is a reason you are not hitting your target rate of 60%. I am not trying to bash you, I am just saying that there is no way any one person has the time to handicap more than that per week. I do a lot of research on the games I play, and I average about 6 plays per week over the course of football, mlb playoffs, nba, and the occasional nhl playoff game. I do not play regular season mlb. I am very selective and I think that has something to do with the success that I have had over the years. That is just me and there is never a 100% winner, so yes I understand my way is not perfect, it just works for me. If you would like I can let you see who/what/when I am playing this week and you can give your analysis too .......maybe both of us can benefit from it.
I do a weekly pick 'em where I choose every game against the line, the first week killed me and I only went 4-12 but since then I have gone 33-11 which combined gives me a .617 average. Post up your picks for this week and lets do some comparison.

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post #11 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-07-2004, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaaronc
If you are betting more than 10 games a week, then there is a reason you are not hitting your target rate of 60%. I am not trying to bash you, I am just saying that there is no way any one person has the time to handicap more than that per week. I do a lot of research on the games I play, and I average about 6 plays per week over the course of football, mlb playoffs, nba, and the occasional nhl playoff game. I do not play regular season mlb. I am very selective and I think that has something to do with the success that I have had over the years. That is just me and there is never a 100% winner, so yes I understand my way is not perfect, it just works for me. If you would like I can let you see who/what/when I am playing this week and you can give your analysis too .......maybe both of us can benefit from it.
Let me give you an example...

Lets say you have two bettors, one who picked 5 games and one who picked 14 games.

The first one wins 3 out of 5, for a 60% rate. The second one wins 8 out of 14 for a 57% rate.

After vig, the 5 bet person has .8 units of profit. After vig, the 14 bet person has about 1.3 units.

If the goal is to make money, it isn't hard to decide which one is making more.

A small advantage over a large period of time is powerful. Any math major will tell that a profit is more assured with a 200 bets with a 55% expectation than from a 50 bet 60% expectation. The reason is because the greater number of samplings produces a greater probabilty that the expectation can be met.

The more bets, the more predictable the outcome. If you are betting to win, you must be concerned more with profits than you are winning percentage.

It's the way the craps table operates. The pass line gives the house less than a 51% expectation. But, if you ask a Casino executive what the "drop percentage" is at a craps table, it is about 20%. A small advantage applied enough times insures a profit. This is why you see billboards all over LV touting craps, but not the wheel of fortune (which gives the house about 8 times the win percentage over craps).

If a sports bettor is has a success rate of 60%+ then he is leaving money on the table, he isn't applying all his advantages and thus not making as he could or should.

If you have 200 opinions during an NFL season (pointspreads and totals) you are more assured of your expectation than if you have 100 opinions a year.

I look at it as an investment. If I have a 10,000 bank roll and risk 2.2% on each opinion and had 2000 opinions over 12 months with a win rate of 53%, I'd have 1060 wins and 940 losers. I'd have $212,000 in wins and $206,800 in losses. A total profit of $5,200. I've never made 52% a year in the stock market.

Now, we used a relatively small win rate, 53%. Flipping a coin I can expect 50/50, so just by guessing (with no analysis) I'd expect 1000 wins in 2000. Paying relatively small attention to the news, a small amount of research, etc. I would expect I can increase that percentage whereas I can win 530 out of 1000 bets.

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post #12 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-07-2004, 06:33 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Let me give you an example...

Lets say you have two bettors, one who picked 5 games and one who picked 14 games.

The first one wins 3 out of 5, for a 60% rate. The second one wins 8 out of 14 for a 57% rate.

After vig, the 5 bet person has .8 units of profit. After vig, the 14 bet person has about 1.3 units.

If the goal is to make money, it isn't hard to decide which one is making more.

A small advantage over a large period of time is powerful. Any math major will tell that a profit is more assured with a 200 bets with a 55% expectation than from a 50 bet 60% expectation. The reason is because the greater number of samplings produces a greater probabilty that the expectation can be met.

The more bets, the more predictable the outcome. If you are betting to win, you must be concerned more with profits than you are winning percentage.

It's the way the craps table operates. The pass line gives the house less than a 51% expectation. But, if you ask a Casino executive what the "drop percentage" is at a craps table, it is about 20%. A small advantage applied enough times insures a profit. This is why you see billboards all over LV touting craps, but not the wheel of fortune (which gives the house about 8 times the win percentage over craps).

If a sports bettor is has a success rate of 60%+ then he is leaving money on the table, he isn't applying all his advantages and thus not making as he could or should.

If you have 200 opinions during an NFL season (pointspreads and totals) you are more assured of your expectation than if you have 100 opinions a year.

I look at it as an investment. If I have a 10,000 bank roll and risk 2.2% on each opinion and had 2000 opinions over 12 months with a win rate of 53%, I'd have 1060 wins and 940 losers. I'd have $212,000 in wins and $206,800 in losses. A total profit of $5,200. I've never made 52% a year in the stock market.

Now, we used a relatively small win rate, 53%. Flipping a coin I can expect 50/50, so just by guessing (with no analysis) I'd expect 1000 wins in 2000. Paying relatively small attention to the news, a small amount of research, etc. I would expect I can increase that percentage whereas I can win 530 out of 1000 bets.

You know, my book subscribes to the same theory that you use, and that is the only reason my guy does it. He tells me all of the time how he hates it, but he loves gambling and what you just described is his theory (and prolly the theory/expertise that a lot of them go by). I agree with your math and with the numbers, but as I said earlier, the plan doesn't work for me. I like to focus on a smaller amount of games, but have a better idea (in theory) of what is going to happen. For example, tonight I am on the over Clemson/Virgina ..... so we'll see.
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post #13 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-07-2004, 09:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaaronc
You know, my book subscribes to the same theory that you use, and that is the only reason my guy does it. He tells me all of the time how he hates it, but he loves gambling and what you just described is his theory (and prolly the theory/expertise that a lot of them go by). I agree with your math and with the numbers, but as I said earlier, the plan doesn't work for me. I like to focus on a smaller amount of games, but have a better idea (in theory) of what is going to happen. For example, tonight I am on the over Clemson/Virgina ..... so we'll see.
Hey, if it works for ya' and your lifestyle that is all that matters, huh? Good luck to you.

Looks like we both lost the Clemson/Virginia over.

Looks like my Cardinals bomb of ML, 5st five innings and RL will work out though! Had 50/50 with the Astros (Stro's and end).

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post #14 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 10:26 AM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra

Now, we used a relatively small win rate, 53%. Flipping a coin I can expect 50/50, so just by guessing (with no analysis) I'd expect 1000 wins in 2000. Paying relatively small attention to the news, a small amount of research, etc. I would expect I can increase that percentage whereas I can win 530 out of 1000 bets.

Also, on this point, I wanted to point out that flipping a coin gives you a 50/50 chance, however if you flip a coin 100 times then you're actual chances of it being 50/50 heads/tails are slim. But you could end up on the high side too.... so who knows.

Damn the clems/virg over!
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post #15 of 15 (permalink) Old 10-08-2004, 02:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaaronc
Also, on this point, I wanted to point out that flipping a coin gives you a 50/50 chance, however if you flip a coin 100 times then you're actual chances of it being 50/50 heads/tails are slim. But you could end up on the high side too.... so who knows.

Damn the clems/virg over!
On the coin flip a hundred times, you are exactly right. But the more observations you have the more you are going to be at 50/50.

You have a greater chance of 1000/1000 on 2000 coin flips than you do 50/50 on 100 coin flips.

The bigger the universe the more predictable the outcome.

I go skunked both, went under on the Houston game as well. All over Boston today with the over.

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