Record-low mortgage rates will be gone in 2011 - DFWstangs Forums
 
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post #1 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 02:46 PM Thread Starter
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Record-low mortgage rates will be gone in 2011

Average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgage expected to jump above 5%
MarketWatch
ATLANTA (MarketWatch) — Mortgage rates may be as low as they’ll get — rates are on course to rise, slowly moving toward 5% by the end of next year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s economic forecast, released Tuesday at the group’s annual convention here.
The group predicts rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010, increasing to a 4.7% average in the first quarter of 2011, and climbing to 5.1% by the end of next year. That’s barring any “blockbuster” announcement from the Federal Reserve next month, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the MBA.

A forest oasis in Carmel, Calif.

Mark Feldberg and Emilyn Page spent about $6 million on their 6,000-square-foot home in Carmel, Calif., which also includes a sculpture garden and avant-garde treehouses. Architect Paul Byrne designed the steel and glass structure to maximize views of the surrounding forest.
The Fed has said it could take more policy actions to stimulate growth, and Brinkmann said that’s likely to come in the form of an additional purchase of Treasury securities. But the market has already anticipated that, and the move has already been priced into current rates, he added.
Brinkmann said he expects a pickup in purchase originations next year, but 2011 volume for mortgages to buy a home will still only be roughly at its 2009 level. Refinance business, however, is expected to drop next year, as mortgage rates begin their rise from record lows.
At the conference, many mortgage bankers commented that business right now is doing well, due mainly to high refinance volume in the low-mortgage-rate environment. A large concern for them, however, has been what happens when all the refinance business dries up.
“If [interest rates] do bump up a bit, it’s a big concern on the refinance side,” said E. Todd Chamberlain, executive vice president for Regions Financial Corp., speaking on a panel at the convention. Those who have recently refinanced may be in the same homes — with the same loans — for a long time, unwilling to give up their very low rates by moving or refinancing, he said.
Total mortgage volume is expected to be nearly $1 trillion in 2011, down from an anticipated $1.4 trillion this year and nearly $2 trillion in 2009.
The industry is expected to originate an annual $480 billion in purchase mortgages by the end of this year and $626 billion next year; it’s expected to originate $921 billion in refinance mortgages by the end of this year, which will shrink to $370 billion next year.

Home sales
The MBA forecast predicts home sales will rise slightly next year, after dropping in 2010 from 2009 levels.
Sales of existing homes will finish 2010 about 8% lower than last year, but sales should rise 2% next year and 16% in 2012. And sales of new homes will finish 2010 13% lower than 2009, but sales should rise from that low base by 20% next year and 40% in 2012.
“We also see some upward indication on prices” in many markets, Brinkmann said. Nationally, prices are expected to decline 1% next year, but that decline is heavily weighed down by severely troubled housing markets, including those in Florida and parts of California, he said.
See the latest home-price data from Case-Shiller.
Brinkmann said that there has been a large decline in household formation throughout the country, with many adults who would rather live on their own sharing a roof with parents or roommates due to financial reasons. Others might be marking time in crowded apartments, though their families are increasing in size and they’d rather move to a larger space, he said.
Those people might relocate as soon as the economy improves and more jobs are created: “There is tremendous pent-up demand that is going to respond quickly to job growth,” he said.
Offsetting that, however, are mobility trends. Homeowner mobility is down, partly because of diminished equity in homes and now also because of low interest rates — it’s now going to be more difficult for people to move when it means they will be giving up a 4.5% interest rate on their mortgage, he said.
In its forecast, the MBA anticipates the unemployment rate will increase to 9.9% in the first quarter of 2011. The rate should decrease to 9.5% at the end of next year and to 8.7% by the end of 2012.
The forecast predicts real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2010, 2.1% in 2011 and 3% in 2012.
From: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rec...011-2010-10-26

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post #2 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 03:40 PM
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Jeez, now I'm posting on a third thread. I need to get out of here... LOL So much for shutting up.

I hope none of you fall for this hogwash. This is just another ploy to get people to spend. "Hurry up and buy that house/property now before rates rise!"

Look, as fragile as the dollar is now, raising rates will crush the dollar's index. As it sits right now, there is no raising and will be no raising of interest rates. The dollar WILL be crashing soon, raising rates will just speed it up. We will be following in Japan's footsteps and go to zero rates, but don't get excited; that is zero from the Fed to the banks. You'll still be giving and small rates for your loans. This is ultimately what the machine was looking to get us to. It's a perfect scenario for the country's elite.

Get out of fiat currencies and hold physical metals and tangible commodoties AND DON'T BORROW ANY MONEY!
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post #3 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 03:43 PM
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Jeez, now I'm posting on a third thread. I need to get out of here... LOL So much for shutting up.

I hope none of you fall for this hogwash. This is just another ploy to get people to spend. "Hurry up and buy that house/property now before rates rise!"

Look, as fragile as the dollar is now, raising rates will crush the dollar's index. As it sits right now, there is no raising and will be no raising of interest rates. The dollar WILL be crashing soon, raising rates will just speed it up. We will be following in Japan's footsteps and go to zero rates, but don't get excited; that is zero from the Fed to the banks. You'll still be giving and small rates for your loans. This is ultimately what the machine was looking to get us to. It's a perfect scenario for the country's elite.

Get out of fiat currencies and hold physical metals and tangible commodoties AND DON'T BORROW ANY MONEY!



Hi Dennis!
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post #4 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 03:45 PM
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Hi Dennis!
Hey, sugar
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post #5 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 03:47 PM
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Hey, sugar


LOL, hope you've been well man. Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming..
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post #6 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 03:51 PM
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Sweet tits, go make me a sammich.

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I sound shit out man, lol. Firefox didnt have a suggestion. I figure A) I'm waay too far off, or B) It's spanish, and Firefox is an English Fox.

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post #7 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 03:52 PM
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Jeez, now I'm posting on a third thread. I need to get out of here... LOL So much for shutting up.

I hope none of you fall for this hogwash. This is just another ploy to get people to spend. "Hurry up and buy that house/property now before rates rise!"

Look, as fragile as the dollar is now, raising rates will crush the dollar's index. As it sits right now, there is no raising and will be no raising of interest rates. The dollar WILL be crashing soon, raising rates will just speed it up. We will be following in Japan's footsteps and go to zero rates, but don't get excited; that is zero from the Fed to the banks. You'll still be giving and small rates for your loans. This is ultimately what the machine was looking to get us to. It's a perfect scenario for the country's elite.

Get out of fiat currencies and hold physical metals and tangible commodoties AND DON'T BORROW ANY MONEY!
Your post contradicts itself multiple times.

I'm at work on an iPhone and have no time to write it all out. I'll let slow, al, or 01wc explain.... At least until I get home.

I don't disagree with your premise (This is a 'buy now scheme' which it always is in sales, or that the dollar is fucked (which we all know it is); just that your logic is flawed in bolstering your argument.
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post #8 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 03:53 PM
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Sweet tits, go make me a sammich.
Crust?
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post #9 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 03:55 PM
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Your post contradicts itself multiple times.

I'm at work on an iPhone and have no time to write it all out. I'll let slow, al, or 01wc explain.... At least until I get home.
LOL... ya, I figured I'd hear that. Go ahead. I'll wait.
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post #10 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 03:56 PM
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LOL... ya, I figured I'd hear that. Go ahead. I'll wait.
Check the edit, and check back at around 7:15 our time
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LOL... ya, I figured I'd hear that. Go ahead. I'll wait.


We've got you now, there's is no turning back! dfwstangs claims another victim!!
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We've got you now, there's is no turning back! dfwstangs claims another victim!!
Nuh uh! I'll be here to clear up WMDs (silly wikilinks), silver manipulation, our fucked dollar and then I'm back out!

Seriously, something wicked this way comes in our economy.
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Nuh uh! I'll be here to clear up WMDs (silly wikilinks), silver manipulation, our fucked dollar and then I'm back out!

Seriously, something wicked this way comes in our economy.


Yeah yeah, then you're going to go read the fish fucker thread(s) in the Back Porch, and you'll be back in for good!
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Yeah yeah, then you're going to go read the fish fucker thread(s) in the Back Porch, and you'll be back in for good!
not... gonna... do... it...
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not... gonna... do... it...
You might regret it, but you won't stop laughing for hours!




1. https://www.dfwstangs.net/forums/show...eferrerid=3606


2. https://www.dfwstangs.net/forums/show...eferrerid=3606
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post #16 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 04:23 PM Thread Starter
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I hope none of you fall for this hogwash. This is just another ploy to get people to spend. "Hurry up and buy that house/property now before rates rise!"
For what it's worth I posted this to get people off the fence about refinancing, not purchasing - although it's not a bad time to buy either if you're in the market. We've quoted people at 4.250% on a 30 year and they're waiting for it to go 0.125% lower, but rates are much more likely to go up than down - therefore now is the optimal time to refinance if you're going to do so.


Go read the fish thread, then look at Leah's Halloween pictures (edit: 1 then 2 from above)
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post #17 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 04:51 PM
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not... gonna... do... it...


You know you've already done it.



Denny's back for good!
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post #18 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 05:17 PM
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post #19 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 06:19 PM
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Jeez, now I'm posting on a third thread. I need to get out of here... LOL So much for shutting up.

I hope none of you fall for this hogwash. This is just another ploy to get people to spend. "Hurry up and buy that house/property now before rates rise!"

Look, as fragile as the dollar is now, raising rates will crush the dollar's index. As it sits right now, there is no raising and will be no raising of interest rates. The dollar WILL be crashing soon, raising rates will just speed it up. We will be following in Japan's footsteps and go to zero rates, but don't get excited; that is zero from the Fed to the banks. You'll still be giving and small rates for your loans. This is ultimately what the machine was looking to get us to. It's a perfect scenario for the country's elite.Get out of fiat currencies and hold physical metals and tangible commodoties AND DON'T BORROW ANY MONEY!
This
And in an inflationary enviroment, debt is okay because the dollars you borrowed are worth more than the inflated dollars you are paying the debt back with.

I'd rather go into 'debt' at 2.5% on a car loan, with inflation being 3 or so, and making 6-7% investing conservatively.

Of course that is crazy talk according to Dave Ramsey and his ilk.
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post #20 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Denny View Post
Jeez, now I'm posting on a third thread. I need to get out of here... LOL So much for shutting up.

I hope none of you fall for this hogwash. This is just another ploy to get people to spend. "Hurry up and buy that house/property now before rates rise!"

Look, as fragile as the dollar is now, raising rates will crush the dollar's index. As it sits right now, there is no raising and will be no raising of interest rates. The dollar WILL be crashing soon, raising rates will just speed it up. We will be following in Japan's footsteps and go to zero rates, but don't get excited; that is zero from the Fed to the banks. You'll still be giving and small rates for your loans. This is ultimately what the machine was looking to get us to. It's a perfect scenario for the country's elite.

Get out of fiat currencies and hold physical metals and tangible commodoties AND DON'T BORROW ANY MONEY!
just to be clear, you mean get the actual metal itself in your hands? don't let them tell you that you own it, but its somewhere else?
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post #21 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 06:40 PM
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This is the reason that I still use this funny money for purchasing but I'm dug in LONG with physical silver. By long, I'm not talking about a specific price or time, but rather top purchasing power. Actually, PPP might by measured with gold and silver by then.

I know there are many seriously smart people duped into believing that the dollar will not and cannot fail, but tell that shit to Cesar. That article is measuring the dollar vs. other world currencies, which is understandable given that those currencies will maintain also. The US Dollar is the world's reserve. I get that. My concern is that that can also be taken out of the equation as well. I know China and Japan are putting their currencies on lock-down to keep their exports reasonable and to protect their interests that are USD based. Do you honestly think that is enough to keep this scam going?

Why do you think China is buying the fuck out of the physical metals? Do you know what happened in the early 1900s when we gobbled up all of China's silver? If you want to revert to history rather than "a visceral memory," or a knee-jerk reaction to a couple of contributing factors.

Everyone with a bit of sense can see what the Fed is doing for its banking buddies. What better time to fuck the US over and ultimately most of the world!

Do you think that China would rather be paid back in 30 or so years with a dollar worth less (interest included, lol) or be the world's global economic leader (by far)? Why reinvent the wheel when it has been done and can be done so easily?

There is no "getting out of this" or beating the devaluation when a collapse is ahead. Make some quick money by playing the shorts and opportunities. Eventually, we'll all be going for the same thing. You can't print more gold and silver. The world will always want something with purchasing power vs. nothing but trading.
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post #22 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 06:40 PM
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just to be clear, you mean get the actual metal itself in your hands? don't let them tell you that you own it, but its somewhere else?
If I'm going to buy it I'll damned sure have it in my hands.

A certificate ain't gonna do shit for me when we're living in Zombieland!
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post #23 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 06:44 PM
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This


And in an inflationary enviroment, debt is okay because the dollars you borrowed are worth more than the inflated dollars you are paying the debt back with.

I'd rather go into 'debt' at 2.5% on a car loan, with inflation being 3 or so, and making 6-7% investing conservatively.

Of course that is crazy talk according to Dave Ramsey and his ilk.
Why not just buy a bunch of "stuff" on credit and default on it?

I'm with you on the debt in an inflationary environment. If I owe 80K on a house, I'll jump into precious metals, let inflation run its course, then pay off that same 80K by cashing in less metals to do it.

BUT, creating more debt now is just feeding the banks and their crooked scheme that they're running on us.
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post #24 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 06:46 PM
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If I'm going to buy it I'll damned sure have it in my hands.

A certificate ain't gonna do shit for me when we're living in Zombieland!
LOL... and even if you're not tin-foiled, that leveraged 100:1 certificate will be crap if enough of the other zombie killers try to take possession of it at once.
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post #25 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 06:48 PM
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just to be clear, you mean get the actual metal itself in your hands? don't let them tell you that you own it, but its somewhere else?
Awww... come on, man. Who actually has a shitton of physical precious metals in their possession. That's just nuts!
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post #26 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 06:49 PM
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Why not just buy a bunch of "stuff" on credit and default on it?

I'm with you on the debt in an inflationary environment. If I owe 80K on a house, I'll jump into precious metals, let inflation run its course, then pay off that same 80K by cashing in less metals to do it.

BUT, creating more debt now is just feeding the banks and their crooked scheme that they're running on us.
I only go into debt when it's an advantage. I don't buy on credit unless I can make more off my money than the cost of the credit itself. To do otherwise isn't smart.
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post #27 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 06:58 PM
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I only go into debt when it's an advantage. I don't buy on credit unless I can make more off my money than the cost of the credit itself. To do otherwise isn't smart.
OK, but you aren't 99.9995% of this country either. I'm trying to get to the people that live paycheck to paycheck, looking to an opportunity to maximize their next purchase to sink them deeper into a hole that they'll never get out of, but think there is light at the end of the tunnel by getting a 30 year mortgage to just barely be able to meet monthly payments because they're too busy paying their minnimum credit card payents. You're already speaking WAY above their heads and not even close to reaching the same end product.

I've bought a lot of physical metals on credit, just to pay the bill off 30 days later when I could cash it in and more than make up for the broker's fees and still have enough to buy me a happy meal
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post #28 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 07:04 PM
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This is the reason that I still use this funny money for purchasing but I'm dug in LONG with physical silver. By long, I'm not talking about a specific price or time, but rather top purchasing power. Actually, PPP might by measured with gold and silver by then.

I know there are many seriously smart people duped into believing that the dollar will not and cannot fail, but tell that shit to Cesar. That article is measuring the dollar vs. other world currencies, which is understandable given that those currencies will maintain also. The US Dollar is the world's reserve. I get that. My concern is that that can also be taken out of the equation as well. I know China and Japan are putting their currencies on lock-down to keep their exports reasonable and to protect their interests that are USD based. Do you honestly think that is enough to keep this scam going?

Why do you think China is buying the fuck out of the physical metals? Do you know what happened in the early 1900s when we gobbled up all of China's silver? If you want to revert to history rather than "a visceral memory," or a knee-jerk reaction to a couple of contributing factors.

Everyone with a bit of sense can see what the Fed is doing for its banking buddies. What better time to fuck the US over and ultimately most of the world!

Do you think that China would rather be paid back in 30 or so years with a dollar worth less (interest included, lol) or be the world's global economic leader (by far)? Why reinvent the wheel when it has been done and can be done so easily?

There is no "getting out of this" or beating the devaluation when a collapse is ahead. Make some quick money by playing the shorts and opportunities. Eventually, we'll all be going for the same thing. You can't print more gold and silver. The world will always want something with purchasing power vs. nothing but trading.
What you are saying doesn't make any sense because a weaker dollar is combating what China has been doing for a long time. The communist bastards have been keeping it low.

If you are truly worried about China then you should be encouraging the Fed to print money as fast as they can. That would devalue the ~trillion dollars of our debt that they hold and it would also make everything they send here more expensive. With their 10-12% annual growth in wages on top of our currency warfare, it wouldn't be long before "Made in China" would make things very expensive.

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post #29 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 07:12 PM
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What you are saying doesn't make any sense because a weaker dollar is combating what China has been doing for a long time. The communist bastards have been keeping it low.

If you are truly worried about China then you should be encouraging the Fed to print money as fast as they can. That would devalue the ~trillion dollars of our debt that they hold and it would also make everything they send here more expensive. With their 10-12% annual growth in wages on top of our currency warfare, it wouldn't be long before "Made in China" would make things very expensive.
Right, but China is keeping theirs down as well to even it out. There is a difference between a devalued dollar and a worthless dollar, though. You're also taking into account that we can be self-sufficient. We'd bust if we didn't import the hell out of shit. We are no longer a producer nation, rather a service-type nation and a debtor. We are the sexiest crackhead on the block and China has the candy. We'll pay either way... for now.
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post #30 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 07:19 PM
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Did anyone listen to the G20? World currencies are collectively being devalued and soon to be brought under the control of a world currecny. We'll still even possibly have dollars, Yen, Yuan, Euro, etc., but these currencies and interest rates will be governed by the IMF. Gold and silver will be the currency of the elitists. Untouchable value by the IMF and G20 (or whatever number that is) because of a limited quanity and a soon-to-be demand by an ever-growing population.

This isn't speculation anymore. The G20 was blatantly proposing this crap with overwhelming support.
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post #31 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 07:45 PM
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Well, I'm not going to spend too much time on this. Denny, good to see you around. I hope all is well, my friend.

In periods of rising inflation, you want to be a FIXED-RATE borrower, bottom line. You make out like a bandit. I often hear people say they are convinced that mass inflation is coming and follow it up with the fact that they're prepaying fixed rate debt...just doesn't jive. I also think inflation is coming longer term, but not b/c of reasons most people think. Quantity Theory of Money (developed in the late 19th Century) has shown huge flaws theoretically and practically...Okun's Law, the output gap, etc provide better explanations of inflation/deflation.

Last edited by slow99; 10-29-2010 at 07:57 PM.
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post #32 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 07:50 PM
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I hope all the talk spurs a buying spree. I really need my place to sell.

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post #33 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 08:01 PM
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Well, I'm not going to spend too much time on this. Denny, good to see you around. I hope all is well, my friend.

In periods of rising inflation, you want to hold FIXED-RATE debt, bottom line. You make out like a bandit. I often hear people say they are convinced that mass inflation is coming and follow it up with the fact that they're prepaying fixed rate debt...just doesn't jive. I also think inflation is coming longer term, but not b/c of reasons most people think. Quantity Theory of Money (developed in the late 19th Century) has shown huge flaws theoretically and practically...Okun's Law, the output gap, etc provide better explanations of inflation/deflation.
The problem is that most don't use debt to their advantage, rather an excuse to live outside their means. Purchase more. Their mindset is not building from their opportunities to receive "now money" on the cheap.
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post #34 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-29-2010, 08:16 PM
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Did a refinance a few weeks ago for a 15 year fixed at 3.875%. I was on a 30 year 7.25% and didn't pay any closing costs (nothing extra "rolled" into the loan either). It is - or was - a promotion that Wells Fargo did for their existing customers in an effort to prevent them from wandering away. It worked for me.

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post #35 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-30-2010, 06:04 AM
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Did a refinance a few weeks ago for a 15 year fixed at 3.875%. I was on a 30 year 7.25% and didn't pay any closing costs (nothing extra "rolled" into the loan either). It is - or was - a promotion that Wells Fargo did for their existing customers in an effort to prevent them from wandering away. It worked for me.
We just did the same thing for the same rate. We were at 5.75 on a 30-year (which I thought was good back then) and went 3.875 for 15. It knocked 12 years off the term. Payment went up a little, but man, you build equity wicked fast.

CHL holder and Conservative...AKA "Domestic Terrorist"
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post #36 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-31-2010, 07:00 AM
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not... gonna... do... it...
Good tp see ya bro!
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post #37 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-31-2010, 09:15 AM
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Nuh uh! I'll be here to clear up WMDs (silly wikilinks), silver manipulation, our fucked dollar and then I'm back out!

Seriously, something wicked this way comes in our economy.
GTFO with all this conspiracy bs!!
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post #38 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-31-2010, 01:34 PM
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GTFO with all this conspiracy bs!!
Out? I am out

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQv-sdMCClQ
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post #39 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-31-2010, 03:50 PM
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Great link. Love the dairy raids with guns drawn, absolutely fucking ridiculous. This country has lost it's mind.
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post #40 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-31-2010, 09:06 PM
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Awww... come on, man. Who actually has a shitton of physical precious metals in their possession. That's just nuts!
So... don't do that? I am actually trying to learn what yall have to teach.
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post #41 of 42 (permalink) Old 10-31-2010, 09:34 PM
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So... don't do that? I am actually trying to learn what yall have to teach.
I'm not saying that I do, but that's exactly what I WOULD do.

If I made over $200K a year, I'd pay what bills I needed to pay as soon as the money was deposited in my account then pull the rest out, set a little aside for living expenses, then buy the shit out of physical bullion and store it locked up in a secure location so that no one has control of it but yourself. No governmental action can take the value to zero. No one can seize what they can't find.

That just sounds like a good idea to me... I'm not saying that is what I do, though.
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post #42 of 42 (permalink) Old 11-01-2010, 05:36 AM
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Get out of fiat currencies and hold physical metals and tangible commodoties AND DON'T BORROW ANY MONEY!
I agree. A deflationary spirl, like Japan will crush people deep in debt, as they have to repay loans with deflated dollars. That is why the FED is worried and trying to cause inflation. But it didn't work in Japan with multiple rounds of QE either.
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