Buffett: I See A Huge Recovery Across All Of Our Businesses Happening Right Now - DFWstangs Forums
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post #1 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-13-2010, 03:35 PM Thread Starter
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Buffett: I See A Huge Recovery Across All Of Our Businesses Happening Right Now

When Buffett says something, I tend to pay attention..

http://www.businessinsider.com/buffe...lusterStock%29

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arren Buffett has never been too pessimistic on the economy, though he's never been one to see consensus on the way up.

Throughout 2009, as the media saw more and more green shoots, the word out of Berkshire Hathaway was one of skepticism.

This year his tone has mostly been one of caution.

And now that the media is obsessed with the double-dip scenario? Warren's suddenly bullish.

Bloomberg:

“I am a huge bull on this country,” Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer, said today in remarks to the Montana Economic Development Summit. “We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board.”

...

“I’ve seen sentiment turn sour in the last three months or so, generally in the media,” Buffett said. “I don’t see that in our businesses. I see we’re employing more people than a month ago, two months ago.”

Buffett of course is extremely diversified, from finance, to housing, to rail (we noted last week that he's probably up $14 billion already on his Burlington Norther bet), so there's really no slice of the economy he can't see firsthand.

If he thinks the real economy isn't matching the gloomy rhetoric, that's to be taken seriously.

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post #2 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-13-2010, 07:47 PM
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When Buffett says something, I tend to pay attention..

http://www.businessinsider.com/buffe...lusterStock%29
I tend not to listen to that guy. Or anyone else that loses $10 billion of their personal wealth and contributes to a 20% decline in their company in 1 year.
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post #3 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-13-2010, 07:55 PM
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The Economist said the same thing.

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post #4 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-13-2010, 08:04 PM
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He said about four months ago that almost every company that Berkshire owns is seeing an increase in demand. We'll see how that translates into hiring. I think after the election is over with we will see quite a bit of hiring along with a significant stock market rally. With the second one coming first.

Just FYI for the people who aren't familiar, that means Dairy Queen, Acme Brick, Justin Boots, Ben Bridge Jewelers, Burlington Northern, etc...

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post #5 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-13-2010, 09:29 PM
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buffett knows what hes talkin bout willis but dont think for one minute he wouldnt fuck you out of your money. hes rich for a reason

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post #6 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-13-2010, 09:55 PM
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Thats interesting, when you combine it with the truck driver shortage someone else posted about.
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post #7 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-13-2010, 10:32 PM
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if there is a double dip, it will come near the end of the year and will be triggered by retail numbers. its not going to have anything to do with the election

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post #8 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 08:32 AM
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if there is a double dip, it will come near the end of the year and will be triggered by retail numbers. its not going to have anything to do with the election
I have no idea where you got this idea but it is a little far fetched.

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post #9 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 08:50 AM
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I have no idea where you got this idea but it is a little far fetched.
About 90% of what he posts is far-fetched.

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post #10 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 10:15 AM
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I have no idea where you got this idea but it is a little far fetched.
I dont see why you think this is far fetched..

for most retailers the shopping season prior to christmas makes or brakes their year. thats also the time of year we see the most consumer spending, we know how much they are spending and how they are spending it (using cash or credit). We live in a purchase based economy so those retail numbers that start to come out in late november early december can have a huge impact on the rest of the market.

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post #11 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 12:05 PM
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I dont see why you think this is far fetched..

for most retailers the shopping season prior to christmas makes or brakes their year. thats also the time of year we see the most consumer spending, we know how much they are spending and how they are spending it (using cash or credit). We live in a purchase based economy so those retail numbers that start to come out in late november early december can have a huge impact on the rest of the market.
Best Buy just posted fabulous results. Alcoa reports October 7th and starts the last earnings cycle of this year. Even if consumer spending sucks ass during Christmas we won't see it affect corporate earnings until January of next year. It would be a little hard for that to cause a "double dip" this year.

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post #12 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 12:31 PM
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Best Buy just posted fabulous results. Alcoa reports October 7th and starts the last earnings cycle of this year. Even if consumer spending sucks ass during Christmas we won't see it affect corporate earnings until January of next year. It would be a little hard for that to cause a "double dip" this year.
we are a purchased based economy, the overwhelming majority of consumer spending on items other then real property and vehicles happens the last 2 months of the year (christmas season)

the information we get tells us not only about the retailers, but also about consumer spending.

credit is still a big question, in people in december use credit to make a lot of purchases I think that would show a positive sign for things to come. but if we see a lot of consumers not using credit on purchases, that could send things the other way. plus you have to factor in over all spending.

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post #13 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 12:40 PM
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we are a purchased based economy, the overwhelming majority of consumer spending on items other then real property and vehicles happens the last 2 months of the year (christmas season)

the information we get tells us not only about the retailers, but also about consumer spending.

credit is still a big question, in people in december use credit to make a lot of purchases I think that would show a positive sign for things to come. but if we see a lot of consumers not using credit on purchases, that could send things the other way. plus you have to factor in over all spending.
That is all true but again, you aren't going to see any sort of double dip scenario driven by consumer spending this year, it is too late in the year and a massive amount of uncertainty is about to go away when the Democrats get kicked out on their fucking asses and put face down in the gutter where they belong in November.

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post #14 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 01:44 PM
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a massive amount of uncertainty is about to go away when the Democrats get kicked out on their fucking asses and put face down in the gutter where they belong in November.
I predict a nice market rally when that happens.
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post #15 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 01:45 PM
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Thats interesting, when you combine it with the truck driver shortage someone else posted about.
Buffett owns a railroad not some fly by night trucking company.

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post #16 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 02:30 PM
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Buffett owns a railroad not some fly by night trucking company.
Well, good for him. But your statement has absolutely nothing to do with what i posted.

The fact remains that a lot of goods travel by "fly by night" trucking companies, and you combine that fact with an nascent economic recovery - and that spells higher costs for you and me, for everything. It's sort of a good news, bad news thing, which is what i was alluding to in the first place.
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post #17 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 03:29 PM
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That is all true but again, you aren't going to see any sort of double dip scenario driven by consumer spending this year, it is too late in the year and a massive amount of uncertainty is about to go away when the Democrats get kicked out on their fucking asses and put face down in the gutter where they belong in November.
first off politics do not drive the economy, though politicians like to make you think they can.

if consumers are not spending money in november and december, then people are going to turn bearish on the market real fast.

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post #18 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 03:33 PM
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first off politics do not drive the economy, though politicians like to make you think they can.

if consumers are not spending money in november and december, then people are going to turn bearish on the market real fast.
Where do you find these "pearls of wisdom"? If uncle Barry is keeping money out of our pockets, you CAN'T spend it! As the dems fall in November, you will see an economic upswing. Some of it is still psychological, but perception is reality. Just a difference in attitude can make a big difference.

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post #19 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 03:39 PM
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first off politics do not drive the economy, though politicians like to make you think they can.

if consumers are not spending money in november and december, then people are going to turn bearish on the market real fast.
People aren't going to turn bearish, they already ARE bearish. Retailers don't expect to sell much.

If you don't think politics can drive the tone of the economy, I just don't know what to say. What do you think is keeping the unemployment rate at 9.6%? Is it fucking magic? Companies have record amounts of cash on hand and 70% of them beat earnings targets last time around, yet they won't expand. Golly I can't figure out why? Could it be that they have no idea how much BLACK JESUS' new healthcare plan is going to cost? Could it be that this 1099 requirement is going to cost them shitloads of money? Could it be an environment of uncertainty created by dumbass democrats?

I wonder why the market is rallying as we get close to the election, could it be because Rasmussen reports that Republicans have the largest spread EVER in the polls?

Go ahead and explain all this shit to me Mr. "Politics don't drive the economy"....

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post #20 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 03:44 PM
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Where do you find these "pearls of wisdom"? If uncle Barry is keeping money out of our pockets, you CAN'T spend it! As the dems fall in November, you will see an economic upswing. Some of it is still psychological, but perception is reality. Just a difference in attitude can make a big difference.
so how/why will consumers spend more money in december if the dems fall? that makes no sense. nothing is going to cause them to have more spending money between now and then.

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post #21 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 03:51 PM
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so how/why will consumers spend more money in december if the dems fall? that makes no sense. nothing is going to cause them to have more spending money between now and then.
The personal savings rate is 6% at the moment. You even pointed out that consumer credit would be important.

The situation we are in right now with consumer spending is not a crisis of cash flow, it is a crisis of confidence. Political issues affect confidence.

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post #22 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 03:53 PM
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The personal savings rate is 6% at the moment. You even pointed out that consumer credit would be important.

The situation we are in right now with consumer spending is not a crisis of cash flow, it is a crisis of confidence. Political issues affect confidence.
I tend to disagree with where the unemployment rate is at the moment. Is that personal savings rate including 401k contributions?
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post #23 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 04:06 PM
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I tend to disagree with where the unemployment rate is at the moment. Is that personal savings rate including 401k contributions?
The unemployed tend to be the lowest wage earners. The rate for college graduates is around 4%. That facts skews what you are implying.

I have no idea about the 401k but when you consider the fact that the personal savings rate used to be -3% and that record amounts of consumer debt are being paid off every month, then you realize that people have money to spend but they aren't spending it on stupid shit. Why aren't they spending? Plain old fear.

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post #24 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 04:11 PM
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People aren't going to turn bearish, they already ARE bearish. Retailers don't expect to sell much.

If you don't think politics can drive the tone of the economy, I just don't know what to say. What do you think is keeping the unemployment rate at 9.6%? Is it fucking magic? Companies have record amounts of cash on hand and 70% of them beat earnings targets last time around, yet they won't expand. Golly I can't figure out why? Could it be that they have no idea how much BLACK JESUS' new healthcare plan is going to cost? Could it be that this 1099 requirement is going to cost them shitloads of money? Could it be an environment of uncertainty created by dumbass democrats?

I wonder why the market is rallying as we get close to the election, could it be because Rasmussen reports that Republicans have the largest spread EVER in the polls?

Go ahead and explain all this shit to me Mr. "Politics don't drive the economy"....
you have to remember the very basics of business, supply and demand, and the government does not play a role in either (unless you have a government contract).

people hire when business requires that they hire. I hire people when the work load exceeds the capacity the me and my employees can sustain. I will not hire someone because I have an incentive to or I am getting a tax brake.

so why is unemployment at 9.7%? because there is no need to hire people, there is no new business. in addition a lot of business has moved international.

right or left, politicians can not create demand for your product, if there is no increase in demand then there is no reason to hire.

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post #25 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 04:18 PM
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you have to remember the very basics of business, supply and demand, and the government does not play a role in either (unless you have a government contract).

people hire when business requires that they hire. I hire people when the work load exceeds the capacity the me and my employees can sustain. I will not hire someone because I have an incentive to or I am getting a tax brake.

so why is unemployment at 9.7%? because there is no need to hire people, there is no new business. in addition a lot of business has moved international.

right or left, politicians can not create demand for your product, if there is no increase in demand then there is no reason to hire.
Jesus, is this issue really this complex?

Politicians can easily make people not want to spend the money they have. And they have done just that. If people don't want to spend money then what happens to demand?

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post #26 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 06:19 PM
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Buffett owns a railroad not some fly by night trucking company.
I get a good look at BNSF activity and to me they look pretty busy from the NW lane

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post #27 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 06:34 PM
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so how/why will consumers spend more money in december if the dems fall? that makes no sense. nothing is going to cause them to have more spending money between now and then.
a republican takeover of the house/senate will help erase some the uncertainty the Obozo administration has infiltrated into this economy. nobody wants to invest in a bus being driven by a blind person.

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post #28 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 06:54 PM
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I get a good look at BNSF activity and to me they look pretty busy from the NW lane

We are rocking and rolling like its pre 2008. Not to mention our intermodal traffic is breaking records every week. We are on track to break our all time record by the end of the year.

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post #29 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 07:11 PM
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Seems like I've heard this before somewhere... hmm

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post #30 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 08:46 PM
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I wonder why the market is rallying as we get close to the election




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We traded up 1129 and now are at 1050.






As long as we hold 1050 +-15 points then we are going to bounce hard.





See you clowns at 1240 sometime this year.




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post #31 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-14-2010, 08:50 PM
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a republican takeover of the house/senate will help erase some the uncertainty the Obozo administration has infiltrated into this economy. nobody wants to invest in a bus being driven by a blind person.
so its just psychological???

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post #32 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 08:30 AM
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so its just psychological???
Yes, whether you agree or disagree with the politics, that is what is going on here.

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post #33 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 08:31 AM
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Because I said so

See you clowns at 1240 sometime this year.
Please wave your magic wand and make Goldman Sachs go to $250.

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post #34 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 08:58 AM
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Yes, whether you agree or disagree with the politics, that is what is going on here.
so I am right, politics can not actually do anything to create jobs.

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post #35 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 09:04 AM
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so I am right, politics can not actually do anything to create jobs.
Think whatever you want about jobs, hell I don't care. All I'm saying is that political feelings can affect the economy and they are doing that right this minute.

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post #36 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 10:43 AM
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Think whatever you want about jobs, hell I don't care. All I'm saying is that political feelings can affect the economy and they are doing that right this minute.
HOW? so because I "feel" for republicans I am going to hire people? of course not, I am going to hire people when the work load requires that I hire people.

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post #37 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 12:10 PM
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HOW? so because I "feel" for republicans I am going to hire people? of course not, I am going to hire people when the work load requires that I hire people.
Are you a blind man? Your party is anti business. Our side is pro business. And your saying that you don't think that would affect the job situation? haha every day liberals confirm how blind they truly are. Thats why the clinton era bloodbath is starting so early this year. You're all blind men. We need someone who can see in office.

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post #38 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 01:33 PM
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Are you a blind man? Your party is anti business. Our side is pro business. And your saying that you don't think that would affect the job situation? haha every day liberals confirm how blind they truly are. Thats why the clinton era bloodbath is starting so early this year. You're all blind men. We need someone who can see in office.
my party lol....
explain to me how any politician in any party is going to increase demand, and increase hiring?

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post #39 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 01:44 PM
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It already has been explained to you. I'm not going to sit here and repeat myself. Try actually reading the thread.

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post #40 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 01:45 PM
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Originally Posted by cannonball996 View Post
HOW? so because I "feel" for republicans I am going to hire people? of course not, I am going to hire people when the work load requires that I hire people.
Read my posts again, I'm not explaining it to you again, I'm not an economics professor.

There is a reason why I have beat the S&P 500 index return by over 7% this year and you haven't. And it isn't luck.

"I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have." - Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

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post #41 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 08:02 PM
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Originally Posted by bullet View Post
Because I said so













See you clowns at 1240 sometime this year.




http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/14/pf/m...tune/index.htm








GENUFLECT TO BULLET






[b] TYPING IN LARGE FONT SIZE DOES NOT GIVE VALIDITY TO YOUR POST! [b]
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post #42 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 08:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Hass View Post
TYPING IN LARGE FONT SIZE DOES NOT GIVE VALIDITY TO YOUR POST!
It does validate his status as an attention whore however.
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post #43 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 09:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cannonball996 View Post
so I am right, politics can not actually do anything to create jobs.
most of the jobs will come from the private sector. if the private sector thinks obama will raise taxes on them and cost them more to employ people etc they wont hire. if theres no jobs consumers wont spend and companies wont increase sales/profits. this is what happens when a person that has no business sense becomes POTUS. If Obama was impeached the market would rally 500 points on the news.

98 Brokra
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post #44 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 11:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P View Post
Please wave your magic wand and make Goldman Sachs go to $250.


I'm a trader, not a miracle worker.




Republicans drove the car off the cliff and democrats had to do all of the work getting it back out of the ditch

Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds at dfwstangs.net

MONEY NEVER SLEEPS

Quote:
Originally Posted by slow99 View Post
When you pull in 20 million percent a year like BULLET, you have your share of 5 and 6 figure days!

GENUFLECT TO THE BULLET




FACTS ARE LIKE ACID TO THE SKIN OF REPUBLICONS
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post #45 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 11:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P View Post
Read my posts again, I'm not explaining it to you again, I'm not an economics professor.

There is a reason why I have beat the S&P 500 index return by over 7% this year and you haven't. And it isn't luck.






How hard is it to beat an index that is only up 1% YTD ?



7% ?


I do that on a bad day.

Republicans drove the car off the cliff and democrats had to do all of the work getting it back out of the ditch

Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds at dfwstangs.net

MONEY NEVER SLEEPS

Quote:
Originally Posted by slow99 View Post
When you pull in 20 million percent a year like BULLET, you have your share of 5 and 6 figure days!

GENUFLECT TO THE BULLET




FACTS ARE LIKE ACID TO THE SKIN OF REPUBLICONS

Last edited by bullet; 09-15-2010 at 11:42 PM.
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post #46 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-15-2010, 11:27 PM
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The comments of a certain individual in this thread makes me chuckle like a giddy school girl...

Stevo

Animal whisperings

Intoxicate the night

Hypnotize the desperate

Slow motion light

Wash away into the rain

Blood, milk and sky


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post #47 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-16-2010, 07:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bullet View Post
How hard is it to beat an index that is only up 1% YTD ?



7% ?


I do that on a bad day.
Of course you do. This is the internet where everyone makes a few points a day and never loses anything.

"I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have." - Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

"There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order." - Ed Howdershelt
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post #48 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-16-2010, 09:12 AM
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I refuse to believe that Cannonball1996 can be so dense as to understand something so simple.

Cmon cannonball... Tell us you're just being funny. It'll make me feel more at ease.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HarrisonBT
I sound shit out man, lol. Firefox didnt have a suggestion. I figure A) I'm waay too far off, or B) It's spanish, and Firefox is an English Fox.

I facepalm myself.
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post #49 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-16-2010, 12:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P View Post
Read my posts again, I'm not explaining it to you again, I'm not an economics professor.

There is a reason why I have beat the S&P 500 index return by over 7% this year and you haven't. And it isn't luck.
actually my business is up almost 40% this year, and I actually expect to finish the year better then that. now as far as me playing the market, I am a strict day trader, I never hold positions over night, only trade 1 stock, probably average between 1-1.5% per trade.

still I have yet for anyone to give me a direct answer: the politicians are going to improve your business by doing _____________________________

and because people might feel better about a certain party is not an answer to this question.

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post #50 of 72 (permalink) Old 09-16-2010, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cannonball996 View Post
actually my business is up almost 40% this year, and I actually expect to finish the year better then that. now as far as me playing the market, I am a strict day trader, I never hold positions over night, only trade 1 stock, probably average between 1-1.5% per trade.

still I have yet for anyone to give me a direct answer: the politicians are going to improve your business by doing _____________________________

and because people might feel better about a certain party is not an answer to this question.
It most certainly is the answer.

I would think that a "daytrader" would understand that the economy and by extension, the stock market, is affected primarily by hype and perception. If you don't understand that then you need to educate yourself because you are going to lose your ass eventually.

"I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have." - Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

"There are four boxes to be used in defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, and ammo. Please use in that order." - Ed Howdershelt
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