Interesting article on the collapse (potential) of The United States. - DFWstangs Forums
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post #1 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-09-2010, 09:43 AM Thread Starter
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Interesting article on the collapse (potential) of The United States.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/mar...erican-empire/

I'll post the text when I get to a computer, pita on my phone.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

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post #2 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-09-2010, 09:49 AM
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ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. -- "One of the disturbing facts of history is that so many civilizations collapse," warns anthropologist Jared Diamond in "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed." Many "civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society's demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power."


Now, Harvard's Niall Ferguson, one of the world's leading financial historians, echoes Diamond's warning: "Imperial collapse may come much more suddenly than many historians imagine. A combination of fiscal deficits and military overstretch suggests that the United States may be the next empire on the precipice." Yes, America is on the edge.


Dismiss his warning at your peril. Everything you learned, everything you believe and everything driving our political leaders is based on a misleading, outdated theory of history. The American Empire is at the edge of a dangerous precipice, at risk of a sudden, rapid collapse.


Ferguson is brilliant, prolific and contrarian. His works include the recent "Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World;" "The Cash Nexus: Money and Power in the Modern World;" "Colossus: The Rise and Fall of The American Empire;" and "The War of the World," a survey of the "savagery of the 20th century" where he highlights a profound "paradox that, though the 20th century was 'so bloody,' it was also 'a time of unparalleled progress.'"


Why? Throughout history imperial leaders inevitably emerge and drive their nations into wars for greater glory and "economic progress," while inevitably leading their nation into collapse. And that happens suddenly and swiftly, within "a decade or two."


You'll find Ferguson's latest work, "Collapse and Complexity: Empires on the Edge of Chaos," in Foreign Affairs, the journal of the Council of Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think tank. His message negates all the happy talk you're hearing in today's news -- about economic recovery and new bull markets, about "hope," about a return to "American greatness" -- from Washington politicians and Wall Street bankers.


'Collapse of All Empires:' 5 stages repeating through the ages


Ferguson opens with a fascinating metaphor: "There is no better illustration of the life cycle of a great power than 'The Course of Empire,' a series of five paintings by Thomas Cole that hangs in the New York Historical Society. Cole was a founder of the Hudson River School and one of the pioneers of nineteenth-century American landscape painting; in 'The Course of Empire,' he beautifully captured a theory of imperial rise and fall to which most people remain in thrall to this day. Each of the five imagined scenes depicts the mouth of a great river beneath a rocky outcrop."


If you're unable to see them at the historical society, they're all reproduced in Foreign Affairs, underscoring Ferguson's warnings that the "American Empire on the precipice," near collapse.


First. 'The Savage State,' before the Empire rises


"In the first, 'The Savage State,' a lush wilderness is populated by a handful of hunter-gatherers eking out a primitive existence at the break of a stormy dawn." Imagine our history from Columbus' discovery of America in 1492 on through four more centuries as we savagely expanded across the continent.


Second. 'The Arcadian or Pastoral State,' as the American Empire flourishes


"The second picture, 'The Arcadian or Pastoral State,' is of an agrarian idyll: the inhabitants have cleared the trees, planted fields, and built an elegant Greek temple." The temple may seem out of place. However, Cole's paintings were done in 1833-1836, not long after Thomas Jefferson built the University of Virginia using classical Greek and Roman revival architecture.


As Ferguson continues the tour you sense you're actually inside the New York Historical Society, visually reminded of how history's great cycles do indeed repeat over and over. You are also reminded of one of history's great tragic ironies -- that all nations fail to learn the lessons of history, that all nations and their leaders fall prey to their own narcissistic hubris and that all eventually collapse from within.


Third. Consummation of the American Empire


"The third and largest of the paintings is 'The Consummation of Empire.' Now, the landscape is covered by a magnificent marble entrep�t, and the contented farmer-philosophers of the previous tableau have been replaced by a throng of opulently clad merchants, proconsuls and citizen-consumers. It is midday in the life cycle."


'The Consummation of Empire' focuses us on Ferguson's core message: At the very peak of their power, affluence and glory, leaders arise, run amok with imperial visions and sabotage themselves, their people and their nation. They have it all.


But more-is-not enough as greed, arrogance and a thirst for power consume them. Back in the early days of the Iraq war, Kevin Phillips, political historian and former Nixon strategist, also captured this inevitable tendency in Wealth and Democracy:


"Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out." We sense the "consummation" of the American Empire occurred with the leadership handoff from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush.


Unfortunately that peak is behind us: Clinton, Bush, Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke, Sarah Palin, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney and all future American leaders are merely playing their parts in the greatest of all historical dramas, repeating but never fully grasping the lessons of history in their insatiable drive for "economic progress," to recapture former glory ... while unwittingly pushing our empire to the edge, into collapse.


Four. Destruction of the Empire


Then comes 'The Destruction of Empire,' the fourth stage in Ferguson's grand drama about the life-cycle of all empires. In "Destruction" "the city is ablaze, its citizens fleeing an invading horde that rapes and pillages beneath a brooding evening sky." Elsewhere in "The War of the World," Ferguson described the 20th century as "the bloodiest in history, one hundred years of butchery." Today's high-tech relentless news cycle, suggests that our 21st century world is a far bloodier return to savagery.


At this point, investors are asking themselves: How can I prepare for the destruction and collapse of the American Empire? There is no solution in the Cole-Ferguson scenario, only an acceptance of fate, of destiny, of history's inevitable cycles.


But there is one in "Wealth, War and Wisdom" by hedge fund manager Barton Biggs, Morgan Stanley's former chief global strategist who warns us of the "possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure," advising us to buy a farm in the mountains.


"Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food ... well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson." And when they come looting, fire "a few rounds over the approaching brigands' heads."


Five. Desolation ... after the Empire disappears


"Finally, the moon rises over the fifth painting, 'Desolation,'" says Ferguson. There is not a living soul to be seen, only a few decaying columns and colonnades overgrown by briars and ivy." No attacking "brigands?" No loveable waste-collecting robots from Wall-E?


The good news is the Earth will naturally regenerate itself without savage humans, as we saw in Alan Weisman's brilliant "The World Without Us:" Steel buildings decay. Microbes eat indestructible plastics. Eons pass. And Earth reemerges in all its glory, a Garden of Eden.


Epilogue: 'All Empires ... are condemned to decline and fall'


In a Los Angeles Times column, Ferguson asks: "America, a Fragile Empire: Here today, gone tomorrow, could the United States fall that fast?" And his answer is clear and emphatic: "For centuries, historians, political theorists, anthropologists and the public have tended to think about the political process in seasonal, cyclical terms ... we discern a rhythm to history. Great powers, like great men, are born, rise, reign and then gradually wane. No matter whether civilizations decline culturally, economically or ecologically, their downfalls are protracted."


We are deceiving ourselves, convinced "the challenges that face the United States are often represented as slow-burning ... threats seem very remote."


"But what if history is not cyclical and slow-moving but arrhythmic?" asks Ferguson. What if history is "at times almost stationary but also capable of accelerating suddenly, like a sports car? What if collapse does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly, like a thief in the night?" What if the collapse of the American Empire is dead ahead, in the next decade? What if, as with the 2000 dot-com crash, we're in denial, refusing to prepare?


Ferguson's final message about America's destiny comes from Foreign Affairs: "Conceived in the mid-1830s, Cole's great five-part painting has a clear message: all empires, no matter how magnificent, are condemned to decline and fall." Throughout history, empires function "in apparent equilibrium for some unknowable period. And then, quite abruptly ... collapse," a blunt reminder of the sudden, swift, silent, certain timetable in Diamond's "Collapse" where a "society's demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power."


You are forewarned: If the peak of America's glory was the leadership handoff from Clinton to Bush, then we have already triggered the countdown to collapse, the decade from 2010 until 2020 ... tick ... tick ... tick ...
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post #3 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-09-2010, 10:18 AM Thread Starter
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Thank you sir.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #4 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-09-2010, 10:32 AM
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being on a farm would not help . sooner or later you run out of bullets or the ability to kill someone over food. maybe if things get bad all the immigrants will go home

" dont mess with the porchdog........ he bites "
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post #5 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-09-2010, 10:35 AM
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They always loot the country before it crumbles, that's currently what they're doing.

Our government needs our help, they have an addiction. Our government is addicted to our money. Since they always have our best interest at heart it's time we return the favor. We need to have an intervention, for the governments own good of course. It's just irresponsible for us to let people with a known money addiction continue to handle our money. Lets have an intervention now so we can help these sick individuals.
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post #6 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-09-2010, 10:42 AM
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I just woke up so I'm a little out of it. From reading that article I gather it's still Bush's fault right. Ok I can go back to sleep and sleep like a baby knowing the libs haven't changed their play book.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

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post #7 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-09-2010, 10:48 AM
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being on a farm would not help . sooner or later you run out of bullets or the ability to kill someone over food.
Bull fucking shit. Never underestimate the human will to live, which in this case, means protecting what is necessary to live. There are a million and one other ways to kill a person.
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post #8 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-09-2010, 11:41 AM Thread Starter
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Bull fucking shit. Never underestimate the human will to live, which in this case, means protecting what is necessary to live. There are a million and one other ways to kill a person.
Pretty much. A bullet is the easiest way. I'd hate to be robbing someone and feel a set of blades from a bow pierce my sternum.

I caught the tail end of it, but there was a discussion on radio the other day about a movie/show about the end of society that showed people forming together in small circa 1800 villages and becoming self sufficient.

I'd be interested to see it, but the only info I have is what I mentioned and that the dad got an infection on the roof and died after surviving everything initially.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #9 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 09:29 AM
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Getting yourself a farm is a great way to get looted and possibly shot. That gambit presumes that there is somewhere to "get away" from the angry hungry mob. They'll eventually find you, and if you have food and supplies, they'll try to take it.

What i think would work is a commune system, with a group of families working together to secure the farm. Additionally, it would need to be located in an area that would provide some measure of natural protection, and not out on an open plain somewhere.

I pray that we never have to face such a scenario.
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post #10 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 10:16 AM
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Getting yourself a farm is a great way to get looted and possibly shot. That gambit presumes that there is somewhere to "get away" from the angry hungry mob. They'll eventually find you, and if you have food and supplies, they'll try to take it.

What i think would work is a commune system, with a group of families working together to secure the farm. Additionally, it would need to be located in an area that would provide some measure of natural protection, and not out on an open plain somewhere.

I pray that we never have to face such a scenario.
Mini commie- community.
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post #11 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 10:50 AM
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guys i want to survive as much as the next guy but killing a man for a few vegetables to feed his kids just don't set well with me. it's a fucked up deal all the way around. you will never know what you will do until you have your finger on the trigger .

" dont mess with the porchdog........ he bites "
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post #12 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 12:57 PM
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guys i want to survive as much as the next guy but killing a man for a few vegetables to feed his kids just don't set well with me. it's a fucked up deal all the way around. you will never know what you will do until you have your finger on the trigger .

You don't have kids, do you?
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post #13 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 01:13 PM Thread Starter
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guys i want to survive as much as the next guy but killing a man for a few vegetables to feed his kids just don't set well with me. it's a fucked up deal all the way around. you will never know what you will do until you have your finger on the trigger .
A few weeks ago, at 2:30am, someone started knocking on my door, not super hard either. I had my gate(s) closed and we literally live in the middle of BFE. My closest neighbor lives 1800' away and it spreads from there, and we live off of a private road.

I happened to be coherent enough to say "you've got to be fucking kidding me!" and I grabbed my pistol. Out on my front porch is a scrawny, unshaven guy in his late 30's/40's. I throw on the floods and came out with a barrel to his face, knowing instantly that if I had to, I could. I had 3 young kids in the house and my wife.

This dude was all over the map. I'll give him some slack for having a gun inches away from his face and a savage viking looking motherfucker standing on the other side of the gun yelling at him. Regardless, he was still all over the place, twitchy, and pretty hyper. The guy said he was going to visit his 'friends' at the end of the road but couldn't remember their names and had gotten stuck. Was asking if I could pull him out since I have a tractor. After politely telling him the tractor was sleeping too and wouldn't wake up until 9:00am I told him to get the fuck off my property.

Next day I started to feel kind of bad about being such an asshole (if I can even be called that when a guy climbs my fence at 2:30am in the middle of nowhere) until I talked to his 'friend' that had no clue who this clown was.


Now, my gut tells me he was checking to see what kind of response he'd get (hence the light knocking) in case he wanted to break into my place in the future. The tears and the fact that I demanded his ID while never lowering my weapon tells me he won't be back.


Had he stormed the gates trying to take food from my family in a doomsday situation, his life would have ended. I know this 100% in my core. Now if he walked up with his family and asked, different story.

Asking and stealing are only a greeting away from one another.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #14 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 01:21 PM
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Had he stormed the gates trying to take food from my family in a doomsday situation, his life would have ended. I know this 100% in my core. Now if he walked up with his family and asked, different story.

Asking and stealing are only a greeting away from one another.


Well done grasshoppa! And agreed. Now you need some big ass dogs like I have to take care of that light work...

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post #15 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 01:26 PM Thread Starter
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I've got my mastiff. He isn't huge by mastiff standards, but around 160-170lbs of trespasser ass kicker.

I'm seriously thinking about investing in a highly trained .45 with teeth. Found an awesome Rottweiler breeder in NY that will fully train the dog before it gets to your door.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #16 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 01:43 PM
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Has to be raised from a puppy with your babys bro. Nothing else can be trusted. Even then it's still debatable...

My cousin is on the force here in town and was resident canine for a period. That uber highly trained dog tore his little girls scalp off one day when the family was in the back yard and he was firing up the cruiser. Actually made the news.

Raise them, then train them. Get the right breed (Rhodesian Ridgeback ) and training isn't as much a requirement...
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post #17 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 01:47 PM
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Mini commie- community.
Capitalism is supposed to be a stepping stone true communism...


Too bad said communes would eventually come into conflict with other communes and lead to more capitalism and domination. It's human nature to join a strong community. Socialism is such a fucking joke.
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post #18 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 01:49 PM
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guys i want to survive as much as the next guy but killing a man for a few vegetables to feed his kids just don't set well with me. it's a fucked up deal all the way around. you will never know what you will do until you have your finger on the trigger .
Less for me to worry about. I guess I must have a moral toggle switch.
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post #19 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 01:50 PM
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Capitalism is supposed to be a stepping stone true communism...


Too bad said communes would eventually come into conflict with other communes and lead to more capitalism and domination. It's human nature to join a strong community. Socialism is such a fucking joke.
It starts off to meet the bare essentials, then human nature of wanting more ALWAYS comes into play... que capitalism.
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post #20 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 02:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Bubbaearl View Post
guys i want to survive as much as the next guy but killing a man for a few vegetables to feed his kids just don't set well with me. it's a fucked up deal all the way around. you will never know what you will do until you have your finger on the trigger .
If someone was trying to take something from my kids and my kids welfare was at stake, I'd kill that person in a split second and not even blink.

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post #21 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 02:23 PM
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Fuck em I'm going to Costa Rica and opening a bar
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post #22 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 06:22 PM
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http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/mar...erican-empire/

I'll post the text when I get to a computer, pita on my phone.
The USA must collapse as a world power, as we are not mentioned in the Book of Revelation.
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post #23 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 07:32 PM
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Yeah all this is probly true, but then you have some countries that have been around for 1000 years or more. Perhaps their governments shifted, but the people's way of life didn't necessarily change. Now I'm not saying it can't/won't happen. In my opinion, with the kind of slime we have running the place (on the right and the left) and the lack of punishment of criminals just because of their status, we will eventually fall.

I'm just saying that it doesn't always happen, and it doesn't have to happen.

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post #24 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 08:05 PM
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The USA must collapse as a world power, as we are not mentioned in the Book of Revelation.


Based on conversations with people who actually understand the nations economy that will come to pass within the next 10 years. Give or take a year or two...

Today a loaf of bread for a dollar, then, one hundred (adjusted for inflation)...
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post #25 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 08:10 PM
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Too bad said communes would eventually come into conflict with other communes and lead to more capitalism and domination. It's human nature to join a strong community.

Sorry bro but if you jave the hot chicks in your compound I'm gonna have to abscond with those ho's...
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post #26 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 08:22 PM
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Sorry bro but if you jave the hot chicks in your compound I'm gonna have to abscond with those ho's...
not I sir, I plan on being a citizen of a tropical third world country by the time shit hits the fan
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post #27 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 08:55 PM
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not I sir, I plan on being a citizen of a tropical third world country by the time shit hits the fan


The wife is actively researching citizenship requirements on three remote locations at this time!
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post #28 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 10:36 PM
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Can you own guns down there?

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post #29 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 10:39 PM Thread Starter
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The wife is actively researching citizenship requirements on three remote locations at this time!
I've started doing this as well. Any idea what kind of cost to uproot everything and roll the fuck out?

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #30 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 10:42 PM
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Guess I'll take that as a no lol. Which one is the best/safest one to move to? I hear costa rica is always nice.

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post #31 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 10:55 PM
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Guess I'll take that as a no lol. Which one is the best/safest one to move to? I hear costa rica is always nice.
Doubtful, they don't even have a standing army. They do have a rising market for tourism, one of the highest indexes of citizen satisfaction in the world, plenty of hot sluts, and great surfing...primo for early retirement.

If guns are your biggest concern look to the swiss or kiwis

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post #32 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 10:57 PM Thread Starter
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Doubtful, they don't even have a standing army. They do have a rising market for tourism, plenty of hot sluts, and great surfing...primo for early retirement.

If guns are your biggest concern look to the swiss or kiwis
I've been thinking a lot about that place. Varied terrain, solid economy, not overpopulated and pretty fucking remote.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #33 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 10:57 PM
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Thats all BS everything is fine i saw it on the news! We are gonna outsource more jobs overseas and to mexico so things should pickup!

98 Brokra
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post #34 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 11:02 PM
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I've been thinking a lot about that place. Varied terrain, solid economy, not overpopulated and pretty fucking remote.
Theyre pro immigration big time...as long as you can offer them something. If you have a degree in a valued career field you can get citizenship without much effort.
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post #35 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-10-2010, 11:49 PM
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There are lots of books out there on these types of scenarios. I've read one that a friend recommended. It's been passed on about 30 times now I'd guess. There are also websites to peruse.

England died a slow silent non violent type death. We could do that too.

Of course we're American and prone to violence. Just look what happens when your sports team wins a championship in a major city.....

That said the founding fathers were pretty brilliant. They left us a framework which can be used to divide the union, install an entirely new Congress in four years, etc.

I just read an article a few days ago that says we'll be the economic juggernaut of the world again by 2030 or 2040 after all the baby boomers are gone and the population is mostly younger to middle age again.

Be prepared for the worst, but no one really knows for sure what is going to happen. Everyone is pretty much talking out of their collective asses right now especially the executive office and dominant party of the house and senate.
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post #36 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-11-2010, 09:32 PM
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There are lots of books out there on these types of scenarios. I've read one that a friend recommended. It's been passed on about 30 times now I'd guess. There are also websites to peruse.

England died a slow silent non violent type death. We could do that too.

Of course we're American and prone to violence. Just look what happens when your sports team wins a championship in a major city.....

That said the founding fathers were pretty brilliant. They left us a framework which can be used to divide the union, install an entirely new Congress in four years, etc.

I just read an article a few days ago that says we'll be the economic juggernaut of the world again by 2030 or 2040 after all the baby boomers are gone and the population is mostly younger to middle age again.

Be prepared for the worst, but no one really knows for sure what is going to happen. Everyone is pretty much talking out of their collective asses right now especially the executive office and dominant party of the house and senate.
You seem to really have it figured out. What do you think is going to transpire?
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post #37 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-11-2010, 09:41 PM
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Shit hit fan.

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post #38 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-11-2010, 10:30 PM
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Doubtful, they don't even have a standing army. They do have a rising market for tourism, one of the highest indexes of citizen satisfaction in the world, plenty of hot sluts, and great surfing...primo for early retirement.

If guns are your biggest concern look to the swiss or kiwis
man i would love to move to New Zealand.
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post #39 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-11-2010, 10:32 PM
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There are lots of books out there on these types of scenarios. I've read one that a friend recommended. It's been passed on about 30 times now I'd guess. There are also websites to peruse.

England died a slow silent non violent type death. We could do that too.

Of course we're American and prone to violence. Just look what happens when your sports team wins a championship in a major city.....

That said the founding fathers were pretty brilliant. They left us a framework which can be used to divide the union, install an entirely new Congress in four years, etc.

I just read an article a few days ago that says we'll be the economic juggernaut of the world again by 2030 or 2040 after all the baby boomers are gone and the population is mostly younger to middle age again.

Be prepared for the worst, but no one really knows for sure what is going to happen. Everyone is pretty much talking out of their collective asses right now especially the executive office and dominant party of the house and senate.

I sure hope so, but my beliefs are we are headed down, way down before we come back up. (if we do)
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post #40 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-11-2010, 10:44 PM Thread Starter
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man i would love to move to New Zealand.
Bring that chick in your avatar and I'll have a spare bedroom for you.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #41 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-11-2010, 10:52 PM
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Has anyone been paying attention to energy futures? Will oil storage facilities full and supertankers serving as floating storage, oil prices still surge higher every time there is a hint of positive economic news. It goes against the laws of supply and demand.

IF the economy starts to recover, oil is poised to shoot sky high, and when it does, it will hammer the economy just like it did last time. Only next time, with all of us already weakened, I look for such a price surge to wipe out the nation. The current economic situation is the only thing keeping oil prices relatively stable.

That's my guess at the future.
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post #42 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-11-2010, 11:01 PM Thread Starter
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Has anyone been paying attention to energy futures? Will oil storage facilities full and supertankers serving as floating storage, oil prices still surge higher every time there is a hint of positive economic news. It goes against the laws of supply and demand.

IF the economy starts to recover, oil is poised to shoot sky high, and when it does, it will hammer the economy just like it did last time. Only next time, with all of us already weakened, I look for such a price surge to wipe out the nation. The current economic situation is the only thing keeping oil prices relatively stable.

That's my guess at the future.
Yeah, $82/bar, $3 diesel and in all reality, it should be at $20/bar and $1.10/gal.

Is it strictly inflation? Or are we all about to get hedge funded again?

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #43 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-11-2010, 11:43 PM
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You seem to really have it figured out. What do you think is going to transpire?
That's the point, I don't have any damned idea and neither does anyone else.

I am concerned that things are going to get really bad either in my lifetime or my son's lifetime though.

We can't continue on this path of complete fiscal irresponsibility indefinitely. I imagine when the final bill collectors come they are going to come armed and want all the land.....
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post #44 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-12-2010, 12:12 AM
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The way I see it with our debt situation, we only have two solid options that are in our best interest.

Option 1. Cut Govt. spending and taxes and get back to a solid financial positon.



Option 2. (my favorite, personally)

Keep borrowing the ridiculous amounts we are now, in fact
2a. Borrow AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE,
2b. Cook the books to show: deficits going down, tax receipts up, Dollar gaining strength.
2c. Inflate the money supply behind the scenes while the currency remains artificially strong


Use said money to.

1. Buy every commodity we possibly can from ONLY foreign sources (Oil, Steel, Gold, Silver, Copper, Natty Gas, medical supplies, Food, etc.
2.. Do a MASSIVE millitary buildup on a scale not seen since ww2
MAKE EVERYTHING! (f22's, Aircraft carriers, f35's, subs, missiles, etc.)
3. Secretly pay all Domestic debts held by people/companies back and give them time to get out of dollar assets.

Then, when we have borrowed all we can, and we are finished using our Dollar like a piece of toilet paper.....

1. Close the borders and close ALL foreign trade.
2. Pull ALL troops back to U.S. soil.. from everywhere.
3. Withdraw from the U.N and NATO
4. Invade Canada, and place minigun turrets all along the US/Mexico border with orders to shoot on sight.
5. Outlaw the Dollar and have a new currency so the foreigners can't use or redeem their dollars anymore.
(We'll call it the AMERO lolz) With denominations replaced with Patton, Eisenhower, Nimitz, Macarthur, Chuck Norris, and other people synonymous with badassery
6. Default on all debts.


And once we have completed this..

Dare the world to do something about it.

Last edited by sc281_99-0135; 03-12-2010 at 01:11 AM.
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post #45 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-12-2010, 03:01 AM
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Summary of the article and commentary:

The End of the World As We Know It…

Posted: 09 Mar 2010 10:21 PM PST

Please continue to help the blog grow. Forward this to others who may be interested. At the bottom of the article, you can find out how to sign up for the email service.




Now, on to what I read today…




I had a busy Tuesday, serving on a discussion panel at school and having to teach a late night test review session. So today, I just want to talk about one simple idea…the end of the United States as we know it!




One of the “most read articles” floating around the web today was written by Paul B. Farrell, entitled “Collapse of the American Empire: Swift, Silent, Certain.” I put the link below.

Farrell\'s Article Link




Don’t read my writing as an endorsement of this. Rather, my view is that there is a low probability / high impact event out there and you should think about it and assess what the probability is. If you want to think about a low probability / high impact event, lets imagine that it was March 2007…would you have believed that in the next 18 months, Bear Stearns and Lehman would be gone, and Merrill would be part of Bank of America?


Farrell’s article is actually a description of a paper written by Harvard’s Niall Ferguson, a leading financial historian who says that imperial collapse can happen much more suddenly than historians imagine. He’s quoted as saying, “A combination of fiscal deficits and military overstretch suggests that the United States may be the next empire on the precipice.”



Ferguson’s article was just published in Foreign Affairs. So Farrell’s brief piece got me interested in reading the source document. (You can buy a pdf of Ferguson’s paper for 99 cents online. I don’t like to flaunt my wealth, but I went ahead and bought it. I figured that if the US is coming to an end, I wouldn’t miss the 99 cents. If the world doesn’t end, Jenny will get one less Christmas present next year.)



Now, having read the actual source document, I’m not sure that Farrell’s piece actually does it justice. But, Farrell brought it to our attention and got people thinking about it, so that’s good.


Here are some of the important thoughts from Ferguson’s paper:

1. All empires, no matter how magnificent, are condemned to decline and fall.
2. Historians believe that civilizations reach their demise gradually. It is often the result of their attempt to defeat other civilizations (sometimes for commerce). Most historians believe that it is part of a natural (albeit slow moving) cycle. In addition to imperialism, other causes could include abusing their natural environments. For example, civilization can grow beyond its agricultural supply and civil war can ensue.
3. Leaders (politicians) have little incentive to address long-term problems. Many times, problems won’t manifest themselves for a hundred years. Thus, the demise of civilizations often takes quite some time.
4. The US has long-term threats. The CBO suggests that public debt could rise from 44% (before the crisis) to 716% by 2080 given likely changes. If current policies remain the same, the debt will be 280%. Regardless, we don’t have the political will to make changes (cut entitlements or increase taxes). China’s GDP is expected to overtake the US sometime between 2027 and 2040.
5. Ferguson asks…but what if this is not a slow cycle, but something capable of sudden acceleration (maybe we could call this “the Toyota view of the world”).
6. Great civilizations are complex systems that have many interacting parts. These parts operate “on the edge of chaos” – where they are stable for long periods of time. Then, some small trigger can set it off. After it gets set off, historians arrive and tell a story about the event and how there were “long term causes.” Often times, the historian misunderstands the complexity, but the story is satisfying.
7. More often than not, the calamity is actually caused by something very proximate in time. They are not culminations of long stories. They are breakdowns of complex systems.
8. A small input to a complex system can have an effect that is amplified. As an example, you can give too much of a vaccine to a patient and you can kill him. Some people who study complexity believe that it’s impossible to make predictions about future behavior (because of all of the possible outcomes of a complex system). (The size of the system’s breakdown is often hard to predict. You don’t know how much damage will occur with a forest fire.)
9. There are countless empires that collapsed very quickly. The most recent example is the Soviet Union.
10. Now, turn your attention to the United States. You should be scared of a precipitous decline (don’t try to think of the stages). Most collapses are associated with financial crises.

11. We are currently running a huge deficit and our publicly held debt is going to double within the decade. Interest payments will increase from 8% of revenue to 17%.

12. These numbers could weaken the worldwide confidence that the US can withstand any crisis.

13. Most likely, there will be some event that happens that changes the thoughts of the world. The common belief will no longer be in US viability.

14. It may be that the public will suddenly reassess the credibility of our fiscal and monetary policy. If investors suddenly question our solvency, interest rates will rise and our interest payments will become tremendous.

15. If this happens, the US will no longer have the money to finance our military programs.

If all this happens, historians will enter the picture and tell us a story. But in reality, things will have happened very suddenly.


My Thoughts on This

This is a scary story and it always scares me more when I hear a story like this from someone smart. For those of you who have heard me speak in the last couple of months, you’ve heard my description that I believe that we are headed (in the long-term) for a financial crisis of epic proportion – similar to what third-world countries have faced in the past. I don’t think that this will happen immediately, but I describe it as something that will certainly occur in our children’s lifetime. I always laugh at the complacency with which listeners respond. Most frequently they ask, “so how should I position my portfolio?”


I do have certain disagreements with Ferguson’s theories. He blames the current crisis solely on the mismanagement of monetary policy (I think that there’s much more to it). I also think that our crisis is a story that has been a long story – when you look at Social Security and Medicare / Medicaid.


Unfortunately, I really disagree with Ferguson’s description of our debt. Our problems are MUCH WORSE than he described. About ten days ago, the Treasury Department put out their annual report which estimates the present value of the unfunded liability for Social Security, Medicare / Medicaid and Veterans’ Affairs. The amount is $52 trillion. I’ll talk more about this amount in future blogs. But the bottom line is that this just a disaster and there’s really no solution. It would be no different than you or me having $10 million of debt. For most of us, working harder, saving more and cutting our expenses won’t solve the problem. It’s too late.


This all really scares me. I think that the educated people of our civilization have a duty to start learning more about our fiscal issues. It’s the only way that we’re going to have a chance of affecting the outcome.


Finally, I’ll end with the thought that hopefully this is all crazy and I’m crazy for telling you to think about it. But here’s a question for you…think about all of the past dynasties…do you think any of the citizens thought that their dynasty was going to end?
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post #46 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-12-2010, 06:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeb View Post

IF the economy starts to recover, oil is poised to shoot sky high, and when it does, it will hammer the economy just like it did last time. Only next time, with all of us already weakened, I look for such a price surge to wipe out the nation. The current economic situation is the only thing keeping oil prices relatively stable.

That's my guess at the future.
This is kinda what I was thinking. How long can that possibly last? I hope you are wrong, sir. But if you are right, then it's greed that's killing us, and nothing else.

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i think thedark1337 is a pretty cool guy. eh plays the game and doesnt afraid of anything


Quote:
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- later on when i was about 16 i suddenly came to the realization that i had zero appeal to women and i said "i'm going to say i'm gay from now on"
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post #47 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-12-2010, 12:19 PM Thread Starter
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We're FUCKED!!!!!
So, does that mean I should sell my Ford stock?


I'm more interested in plans to survive/thrive and GTFO of the way. Got any tips on that?

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #48 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-12-2010, 12:36 PM
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There was a time when I would have laughed at all this talk, but the lat year of Obama has me worried immensely about where we are headed. I have been thinking of places to go with my family in the country (with co-workers, friends, family who live far out) since I live in the middle of the city.

I am keeping all of my gold and other valuables and making sure my weapons and ammo is all in easy to grab containers for a quick exit. I want to be prepared for a catastrophic terrorist event or the fall of the country in some Red Dawn type event or anything in between.

What are you guys doing to prepare for a worst case scenario?

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If you like the IRS, DMV and the Post Office, you will love Obamacare!

“An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.”
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I have to agree with a quote from former Treasury Secretary William E. Simon: "Bad politicians are sent to Washington by good people who don't vote."
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post #49 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-12-2010, 01:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sc281_99-0135 View Post
The way I see it with our debt situation, we only have two solid options that are in our best interest.

Option 1. Cut Govt. spending and taxes and get back to a solid financial positon.



Option 2. (my favorite, personally)

Keep borrowing the ridiculous amounts we are now, in fact
2a. Borrow AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE,
2b. Cook the books to show: deficits going down, tax receipts up, Dollar gaining strength.
2c. Inflate the money supply behind the scenes while the currency remains artificially strong


Use said money to.

1. Buy every commodity we possibly can from ONLY foreign sources (Oil, Steel, Gold, Silver, Copper, Natty Gas, medical supplies, Food, etc.
2.. Do a MASSIVE millitary buildup on a scale not seen since ww2
MAKE EVERYTHING! (f22's, Aircraft carriers, f35's, subs, missiles, etc.)
3. Secretly pay all Domestic debts held by people/companies back and give them time to get out of dollar assets.

Then, when we have borrowed all we can, and we are finished using our Dollar like a piece of toilet paper.....

1. Close the borders and close ALL foreign trade.
2. Pull ALL troops back to U.S. soil.. from everywhere.
3. Withdraw from the U.N and NATO
4. Invade Canada, and place minigun turrets all along the US/Mexico border with orders to shoot on sight.
5. Outlaw the Dollar and have a new currency so the foreigners can't use or redeem their dollars anymore.
(We'll call it the AMERO lolz) With denominations replaced with Patton, Eisenhower, Nimitz, Macarthur, Chuck Norris, and other people synonymous with badassery
6. Default on all debts.


And once we have completed this..

Dare the world to do something about it.
d

We think alike!!!



Looking for sponsorships for 2010 on the car above... PM for details and schedule.

I'm a mod motor GOD! LOL!
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post #50 of 76 (permalink) Old 03-12-2010, 01:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin View Post

What are you guys doing to prepare for a worst case scenario?
Not much we can do besides stock up on staples, weapons, and things that you will be able to barter with. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Our government needs our help, they have an addiction. Our government is addicted to our money. Since they always have our best interest at heart it's time we return the favor. We need to have an intervention, for the governments own good of course. It's just irresponsible for us to let people with a known money addiction continue to handle our money. Lets have an intervention now so we can help these sick individuals.
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