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post #1 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 01:39 PM Thread Starter
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What do our financial gurus around here make of this

Morgan Stanley strategist claiming "head for the hills"
http://www.nationalexpositor.com/News/997.html

Our government needs our help, they have an addiction. Our government is addicted to our money. Since they always have our best interest at heart it's time we return the favor. We need to have an intervention, for the governments own good of course. It's just irresponsible for us to let people with a known money addiction continue to handle our money. Lets have an intervention now so we can help these sick individuals.
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post #2 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 02:30 PM
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China selling US interest, Japan buying as much as they can... something is about to go down.

BTW, I've been covered on supplies since tinfoiling wasn't cool!
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post #3 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 02:36 PM
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There is a reason why he USED TO work for Morgan Stanley...

"I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have." - Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

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post #4 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 03:03 PM
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Whatever you do, don't look at gold as your answer. The gold bubble will bust just like the housing bubble did.
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post #5 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 03:05 PM
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Ammo and water will be the new gold... I just watched "The Book of Eli."
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post #6 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 03:10 PM
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Can't help but laugh at the notion someone was posting a few weeks ago of buying the Euro. Holy shit, if the world is viewing the USD as safe that tells you how fucked the world is.
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post #7 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 09:22 PM
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Can't help but laugh at the notion someone was posting a few weeks ago of buying the Euro. Holy shit, if the world is viewing the USD as safe that tells you how fucked the world is.

It's not what he said but moreso maybe...
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post #8 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 10:01 PM
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Can't help but laugh at the notion someone was posting a few weeks ago of buying the Euro. Holy shit, if the world is viewing the USD as safe that tells you how fucked the world is.
It won't be cheap to keep Greece's economy afloat!

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post #9 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 10:11 PM
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It won't be cheap to keep Greece's economy afloat!
Contagion.

The latest "projections" from DC have the US at a 1.5 debt/gdp ratio in year 2025 in the most optimistic (ridiculous) estimate. More realistic projections put US debt/gdp at 2.0 in 2025. This is, of course, if we recover immediately from here and have no economic slowdowns whatsoever from now until 2025. Again, ridiculous assumptions. The outlook here is not good. The market is VERY slowly but surely figuring out how to assess sovereign risk.

Last edited by slow99; 02-16-2010 at 10:23 PM.
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post #10 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 10:32 PM
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Contagion.

The latest "projections" from DC have the US at a 1.5 debt/gdp ratio in year 2025 in the most optimistic (ridiculous) estimate. More realistic projections put US debt/gdp at 2.0 in 2025. This is, of course, if we recover immediately from here and have no economic slowdowns whatsoever from now until 2025. Again, ridiculous assumptions. The outlook here is not good. The market is VERY slowly but surely figuring out how to assess sovereign risk.
I feel sorry for all those that hold long term US debt (besides TIPS)... Inflation is a bitch lol

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post #11 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 10:35 PM
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I feel sorry for all those that hold long term US debt (besides TIPS)... Inflation is a bitch lol
TIPS default wha...??
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post #12 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 10:45 PM
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TIPS default wha...??
That will be a bad day haha...

Really I think we will see a default on debt obligations before the Government will allow the dollar to become completely worthless. We are definitely at a tipping point, unfortunately no one in Washington (Rep or Dem) seems willing to to do what it will take. What is sad IMO, is with even conservative GDP growth it wouldn't take radical changes to at least stabilize the Debt/GDP ratio with immediate action.

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post #13 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-16-2010, 10:54 PM
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That will be a bad day haha...

Really I think we will see a default on debt obligations before the Government will allow the dollar to become completely worthless. We are definitely at a tipping point, unfortunately no one in Washington (Rep or Dem) seems willing to to do what it will take. What is sad IMO, is with even conservative GDP growth it wouldn't take radical changes to at least stabilize the Debt/GDP ratio.
The entitlements will be the nail in the coffin. For decades, these entitlements have been something off in the horizon to worry about later. The time is here. The first baby boomers start retiring next year. It would take an entire class of legislators who don't care about being re-elected to fix the problem. I just don't see it happening. Our political system is too fucked.

The only other alternative is to print your way out of trouble. Which is why Greece is getting so much attention: they don't own a printing press. The situation with Greece and the rest of the PIIGS is really bringing sovereign risk to light. The markets will start examining every country when they go down. That's why I see an inflationary event in our not too distant future. Our entitlement obligations are just too huge.

Forget about this 40-80% number you hear in the media for our debt/gdp ratio. When you figure in underfunded entitlements, the number is over 400%.

Hell, even now, the only entity buying long-term treasuries is the Fed. Nobody else will touch it.
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post #14 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-17-2010, 10:35 AM
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The entitlements will be the nail in the coffin. For decades, these entitlements have been something off in the horizon to worry about later. The time is here. The first baby boomers start retiring next year. It would take an entire class of legislators who don't care about being re-elected to fix the problem. I just don't see it happening. Our political system is too fucked.

The only other alternative is to print your way out of trouble. Which is why Greece is getting so much attention: they don't own a printing press. The situation with Greece and the rest of the PIIGS is really bringing sovereign risk to light. The markets will start examining every country when they go down. That's why I see an inflationary event in our not too distant future. Our entitlement obligations are just too huge.

Forget about this 40-80% number you hear in the media for our debt/gdp ratio. When you figure in underfunded entitlements, the number is over 400%.

Hell, even now, the only entity buying long-term treasuries is the Fed. Nobody else will touch it.
So what happens when countries start jumping off the bankruptcy cliff? There is no precedent on how to address this.

I think the entitlements will force our government to do something in terms of massively changing them/payout structures.

I said it once and I'll say it again, we have the baby boomers to thank for this mess. Their ideals pushed a lot of this down our throat and the numbers of baby boomers going into the 'system' will drive the stake through us.

Fuck.

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post #15 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-17-2010, 10:41 AM
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So what happens when countries start jumping off the bankruptcy cliff? There is no precedent on how to address this.

I think the entitlements will force our government to do something in terms of massively changing them/payout structures.

I said it once and I'll say it again, we have the baby boomers to thank for this mess. Their ideals pushed a lot of this down our throat and the numbers of baby boomers going into the 'system' will drive the stake through us.

Fuck.
Many of the entitlements that could bankrupt us started with FDR in the 1930's, well before the baby boomer era.
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post #16 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-17-2010, 11:11 AM
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Their ideals pushed a lot of this down our throat and the numbers of baby boomers going into the 'system' will drive the stake through us.

Fuck.
Cancel the 'system'. Look back to the history of this country BEFORE unions and social security. People were healthier, were thinner and lived productive lives. Now we have 70% obesity and a welfare state that only leaves the home to pick up their check and a big mac and bitch how high their electric bill is from watching TV all fucking day.

Fuck em'.



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post #17 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-17-2010, 11:58 AM
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Many of the entitlements that could bankrupt us started with FDR in the 1930's, well before the baby boomer era.
Most? Bullshit.
Student aid came in to play in 1965, welfare as it is now is credited to the 60's as well, medicare - 1965, and so on. Then the system, instead of providing a helping hand has been morphed, by the baby boomers in power, into a hand to push down on those using the benefits. Welfare is now a way of life, not something that a person is embarrassed about being on.

From the government side, it's a control issue. And based on the size of corporations, the power they have, the power that our leaders seek and so on, I think everyone can agree that Baby Boomers are hitler-esque in their hunger for power.

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post #18 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-17-2010, 11:59 AM
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Cancel the 'system'. Look back to the history of this country BEFORE unions and social security. People were healthier, were thinner and lived productive lives. Now we have 70% obesity and a welfare state that only leaves the home to pick up their check and a big mac and bitch how high their electric bill is from watching TV all fucking day.

Fuck em'.
I'm with you. Pull the bandage off fast. Hurts more in the beginning but doesn't last as long.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #19 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-17-2010, 12:08 PM
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Another really encouraging article...



"Economic forecasters say future generations of Americans could have a substantially lower standard of living than their predecessors' for the first time in the country's history if the debt is not brought under control.

Government debt, which fuels the risk of inflation, could make everyday Americans' savings worth less. Higher interest rates would make it harder for consumers and businesses to borrow. Wages would remain stagnant and fewer jobs would be created. The government's ability to cut taxes or provide a safety net would also be weakened, economists say."

"Ultimately, analysts say, solving the debt problem will likely require both tax hikes and spending cuts, along with broader structural reforms of the way government operates.

"Habitually spending more money than you make is irresponsible," said Walker. "Irresponsibly spending someone else's money when they're too young to vote or not born yet is immoral."

Future generations of Americans will largely foot the bill for the present financial predicament, economists say.

The United States currently owes over $12 trillion to its debtors – that's more than fifteen $787-billion economic stimulus packages worth of cash. Divided out, each American bears a $40,000 share of the country's tab."

story here
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post #20 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-17-2010, 12:08 PM
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Most? Bullshit.
Student aid came in to play in 1965, welfare as it is now is credited to the 60's as well, medicare - 1965, and so on. Then the system, instead of providing a helping hand has been morphed, by the baby boomers in power, into a hand to push down on those using the benefits. Welfare is now a way of life, not something that a person is embarrassed about being on.

From the government side, it's a control issue. And based on the size of corporations, the power they have, the power that our leaders seek and so on, I think everyone can agree that Baby Boomers are hitler-esque in their hunger for power.
Many, not most. Re-read my post.

You chose to omit one of the most important entitlements as far as cost....Social Security. Why is that?

Agree with you on the quest for power and entitlement, give someone a little and their thirst for more will only grow.
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post #21 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-17-2010, 12:09 PM
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Right now the path to cutting entitlements is not an easy one. When the value of the dollar starts to really go away and the federal government begins to think about defaulting on its debts, private sector pressure is finally going to make the cutting of entitlements the easiest path to take for these idiots.

If you want to solve 90% of the issues with the idiots who run this country. If you want them to go to DC and run things like they don't give a fuck, I have two words for you.....TERM LIMITS. One term and that is all you get. Who cares about approval ratings or what the voters think because you aren't coming back again. No matter what!
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post #22 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-17-2010, 12:14 PM
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Preach on Al...


It would also be nice to eliminate lobbyist' and their keys to the dens of inequity...
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post #23 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-26-2010, 04:57 PM
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If you want to solve 90% of the issues with the idiots who run this country. If you want them to go to DC and run things like they don't give a fuck, I have two words for you.....TERM LIMITS. One term and that is all you get. Who cares about approval ratings or what the voters think because you aren't coming back again. No matter what!
I think if most of those sheisty motherfuckers knew they only had one term, they'd line their pockets as much as possible in those 4 years and say "fuck you" to everybody else, especially us.
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post #24 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-26-2010, 05:20 PM
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I think we're in good shape. A lil debt never hurt anybody!

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post #25 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-26-2010, 05:36 PM
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So what happens when countries start jumping off the bankruptcy cliff? There is no precedent on how to address this.

I think the entitlements will force our government to do something in terms of massively changing them/payout structures.

I said it once and I'll say it again, we have the baby boomers to thank for this mess. Their ideals pushed a lot of this down our throat and the numbers of baby boomers going into the 'system' will drive the stake through us.

Fuck.
Hold on a min. Not all baby boomers are involved in this. And to be honest, if you just need some one to blame, try putting the blame where it belongs. It belongs with the socialist, and all their B.S. chicken in every pot B.S.



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post #26 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-26-2010, 08:30 PM
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I think if most of those sheisty motherfuckers knew they only had one term, they'd line their pockets as much as possible in those 4 years and say "fuck you" to everybody else, especially us.
They could do that now and not run for re-election. The fact that they don't means it is a far fetched idea. Besides, maybe it isn't possible for them to line their pockets more than they do now!
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post #27 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-27-2010, 08:23 PM
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Many, not most. Re-read my post.

You chose to omit one of the most important entitlements as far as cost....Social Security. Why is that?

Agree with you on the quest for power and entitlement, give someone a little and their thirst for more will only grow.
Because that one was self explanatory. I'm simply stating that in the last 35-50years they have been double timing on entitlement.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
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"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #28 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-27-2010, 08:23 PM
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Hold on a min. Not all baby boomers are involved in this. And to be honest, if you just need some one to blame, try putting the blame where it belongs. It belongs with the socialist, and all their B.S. chicken in every pot B.S.
I didn't realize you were that old

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #29 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-28-2010, 08:51 PM
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I didn't realize you were that old

I'm actually the last year of the boomers and the first year of X



All men should know Honor first, above all else!

Honor is not holding your hand out for something you did not earn.
Honor is not forcing your ideas, or belief on others.
Honor is not something given to you by way of job, or title.

Honor is learned, earned, practiced and respected by all decent men and women.
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post #30 of 30 (permalink) Old 02-28-2010, 11:08 PM
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Baby Boomers are categorized as being born from 1946-60.
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