I believe Iran will have a nuclear weapon with in a year, so if this sennerio comes to play out, it will be very soon.
there is no way that a quick strike will take out iran offensive capabilities. there would be to many targets spread out over a wide region, Iran will be able to retaliate with enough fire power to do israel substantial harm
I agree, whatever is going to happen, it won't be long.
You are right, a quick strike will not take out all of Iran's offensive capabilities, but it would take a away the nuclear genie in the short term, and take a sizable chunk from their command and control abilities.
Feel free to take a look at the following map:
Notice the countries currently in between and around the distance between Iran and Israel.
Most notably Iraq, Kuwait, and in the region... Turkey and the Persian Gulf
Any attempt at retaliating via aviation would be a fool's errand for the outgunned and outclassed Iranian Air Force. They would be ground litter halfway into Iraq.
That leaves Iran's medium range missiles. The Shahab 3 and the brand new and limited production Sajil-2.
Both of these missiles could reach Israel with a conventional or chemical\biological warhead.
The Shahab 3 can only reach the roughly 1,000 mile distance to Israel when the payload is lightened and it is known to be too inaccurate to cause any specific logistical problem for a prepared enemy other than general mayhem and destruction
The Sajil-2 however is new and is a solid propellant rocket which is thought to be much more accurate, however, the numbers are low due to the young age of its production.
However, to get to target, the missiles would need to go through the following defenses to get to the target:
1. Aegis cruisers in the Persian Gulf with SM3 missiles, which have already proven the ability to take out satellites
2. Patriot PAC-3 systems that are currently deployed In Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, and other locations in the area
3. Israeli Arrow ABM system, which is currently deployed and has been field tested against Shahab-3 type targets.
In all, would some get through?
Absolutely... but the state of Israel and its people in general would survive and Iran would have "blown its load" so to speak....
What I'm trying to say is there is no "easy" solution to this.
Whatever happens, its going to be very bad for those caught in the middle.
(Which will be many)
But to be honest, Iran is giving Israel, and by association, the western world very limited options by its belligerence at the negotiating table....
The only other option (if Israel was even OK with signing its own death warrant) is to let Iran have its nukes....
Which is worse? I guess it depends on who you ask....