A pullback (or profit taking, if you will) before another run up?
It will pullback at some point. The key is waiting for the pullback and to see if it really is a pullback or a change in direction.
I can certainly see scenarios where gold continues higher but also scenarios where it turns direction. I don't try to predict the markets as much as just listen to them.
dblack, in terms of education it depends on what you want to get out of the market. Are you an investor or are you a trader? In terms of equities I'm looking for 3-5 day moves on a stock based on their charts. I don't care what the company does, its balance sheet, etc. I'm looking for price action. Not even volume. I sometimes use Fibonacci lines to help me determine exits but that is about it.
If you are investing (longer time frame) Peter Lynch's book that slow99 mentioned as well as William O'Neil's book How To Make Money In Stocks. O' Neil's book is a very good top down approach to investing and, at a certain level, is exactly how I trade stocks.
- What is the general direction of the market? (Up/Down)
- Which sectors are in the market are leading the charge?
- Which stocks in the sector are leading the sector?
- Are there any chart patterns that I like of the stocks leading the sector?
With equities I trade only pullbacks (if the direction is down I'm looking for setups where a stock has bucked the trend and vice versa on an up market.) The majority of stocks trade the trend of the market so I don't try to be buck the trend but I'm looking for stocks that tried and will fail (the majority of the time.) There are infinitely more ways to trade but I'm stuck with pullbacks because they make the most sense to me.
If that is the way you want to trade visit http://www.davelandry.com/
and watch every video on the site. Dave is the ultimate swing trader and has done it for many many years. He is a great guy and shares a lot of his information without having to spend the $$$$$. Of course, if you like his methods he'd love to sell you some stuff.
His market in a minute is a great short overview of what he thinks for the day. His weekend chart reviews are awesome.
A good book on position sizing, expectations, money management, etc. is Van Tharp's Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom. If you are more of the trading mindset this is a definite book to purchase and understand. It doesn't teach you to read charts (anyone can do that) but delves into the mechanics of how to size position and not blow out your account before you can realize the long term expectations of your (any) system.
I've gotten away from equities for the most part this year although I still look at charts every night and try to find setups but also added the S&P 500 e-mini to the mix. I'm still a newb when it comes to futures so I spend a bit more time at night with those instead of equities.
In terms of futures I read (on a daily basis):
Anyone who can take $2 million dollars out of the market in a year is someone I want to study. Luckily for us, Don Miller opens up (almost daily) on how he trades the markets. He doesn't get into the mechanics but it is a great read on the thoughts of a highly successful trader. I do plan on purchasing his webinars ($1500) but I want to spend a couple more months on my own so that when I study his webinars they make sense (i.e. I don't want to still trying to figure out the basics. I look at his webinars as being a graduate course, not an undergraduate course.)
Other blogs I read daily:
If you read those websites on a regular basis you won't need to purchase another book!