No Cerveza... No Trabajo
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Where's my beer?
It will be interesting FT.
Probably this biggest portion of this bubble was due to people using their homes as ATM machines. I just read an article this morning where the analysts doesn't think home prices will be at pre-pop levels in America, on average, until 2020.
I'm not sure if it is doom and gloom to jump on the bandwagon but I also read a report where they believe retail is about to take a huge dump next year. 1000s of stores closing. The analyst says the American consumer has taken a definite turn in their habits and the high-end of the market (most margin) is all but dead. Companies like Kohl's, Dollar General and the 99-cent stores, in his opinion, will thrive. Abercrombie and their like will continue to struggle and downsize in the coming years.
If business didn't learn anything over the past 2 years and goes right back to hiring sure we'll get the infamous V-shaped curve recovery. If business holds back investment we might see a double dip.
We could be, as Big Ben says, done with this recession. Or the recession could be just taking a pause.
I'm still 50/50. Since I'm in the market research industry we typically lead coming out of the recession (companies predict an upturn and want to get their ducks in a row with consumer research) and I really haven't seen the activity yet. The next 3 months will be telling for me for next year as we negotiate next year's contracts. We've had a little interest and tire kicking but nothing concrete yet.
Having said that we thought we'd take a huge hit (like a double digit hit on revenues and earnings) and it hasn't been all that bad. End of the year will certainly look like it did 5 years ago in terms of distributions but I consider the last couple of years to be "abby normal." So, we're regressing to the mean in my opinion.
It has been interesting with people I know. People that were always doing things like 2 weeks at Atlantis or a month in Hawaii are doing family vacations by going out of state and staying with relatives. My family really hasn't missed a beat, taking vacations as normal, still buying clothes where we usually do, etc. etc. Wife is already chomping at the bit for a new ("I want european this time") vehicle. Not because I'm doing great this year but I wasn't blowing the cash during the "hey days" and was saving.
I'm all about steady as she goes. haha.
So here is two a v-shaped recovery but I'm thinking it will be a long prolong meh recovery with employment not getting back down into the 5s until late 2012 at the earliest.
Nothing else to do but drink some huge ass beers!
My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)