Ken Fisher is fucking retarded. US has "too little debt" Needs more. - DFWstangs Forums
 
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post #1 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-17-2009, 11:47 PM Thread Starter
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Ken Fisher is fucking retarded. US has "too little debt" Needs more.

How can he make this case with a straight face?? What a Goddamned moron..

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post #2 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 12:54 AM
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Crazy. Another crazy fact: the s&p 500 is a top quintile performer the last 12 months. Unbelievable.
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post #3 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 08:50 AM
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CEO? Of an investment firm? WTH?

How'd he get in that position!?!?

Of course...its the people under him that really keep the company afloat...

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post #4 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 09:33 AM
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So his argument is that our debt to return ratio is really low. GDP is soooo high that we can greatly increase our debt load for a higher return..

From a business prospective, this can be true. From a personal debt prospective, no fucking way. You don't get a return on most consumer debt. Car and home loans DO provide a return in one way or another but most credit card debt is on consumer goods that don't provide a financial return.

Government is a completely different matter. Some government debt does provide a return. Bonds on road construction are a very good example. New roads provide for more commerce which increases revenue generation for the private sector and thus more tax revenue for Government. But there are a shit load of things that provide NO return. Then there is the interest on that government debt. We are getting to the point that we are going to have to take new loans just to pay interest on older loans.

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post #5 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 06:09 PM
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CEO? Of an investment firm? WTH?

How'd he get in that position!?!?

Of course...its the people under him that really keep the company afloat...
He founded it.
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post #6 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 07:23 PM Thread Starter
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He founded it.


And he's a fucking moron. One of his "people" called my grandparents wanting to talk about investments. They set a house appt for them to see what they could do. The guy gets there and throws some random platitudes about investing at them and has the gall to say "Our firm minimum is $500k" They told him he was an idiot and to get the fuck out of their house.

Bunch of fast talkers that must think if they talk fast enough, that people will sign without lsitening. My grandparents cringe at the very mention of Fisher investments.

Needless to say, they had a good time making fun of that video.
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post #7 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 08:16 PM
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And he's a fucking moron. One of his "people" called my grandparents wanting to talk about investments. They set a house appt for them to see what they could do. The guy gets there and throws some random platitudes about investing at them and has the gall to say "Our firm minimum is $500k" They told him he was an idiot and to get the fuck out of their house.

Bunch of fast talkers that must think if they talk fast enough, that people will sign without lsitening. My grandparents cringe at the very mention of Fisher investments.

Needless to say, they had a good time making fun of that video.
Word. Our advisor meeting for the Fund was today, and I sat next to some pretty big/influencial names in Finance/Investing at lunch. This is, of course, after they lit all of us up on our stock pitches. I mentioned this video and one of them said he had seen it and began to tear it apart. Pretty much what I had pm-d people last night when they had asked me about it. Oh well, of course this dude is a tool. I loved when I saw other comments on this subject that said, "No way this guy could have been down 50% in a year, etc."
Hell, the S&P 500 was a top quintile performer, as I mentioned earlier. Yes, trust me, plenty of Fund Managers were down 50% in 2008. (Not validating this guy, just saying).
I wish one of these types would call me pitching a stock, it'd be high comedy. Hell, I wish some of the hot shot, bad ass investors we have here would pitch me a stock, it'd be high comedy.
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post #8 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 08:25 PM Thread Starter
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I wish one of these types would call me pitching a stock, it'd be high comedy.
Would be a slaughter. My grandparents said the "Advisor" sounded like a cheesy car salesman, but dumber.

*For the carguys*
(notice I said cheesy car salesman. A sales professional is a sales professional no matter what he is selling. There is a right way and a wrong way to sell, which is what I am getting at. Don't confuse that with me lumping every carguy in the cheesy section.)
<-- Former Carguy

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Hell, I wish some of the hot shot, bad ass investors we have here would pitch me a stock, it'd be high comedy.
I honestly think most of that is bullshit ego stroking. Granted, some may be decent, but the vast majority of the claims on here are just E-jerking it.
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post #9 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 08:39 PM
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Would be a slaughter.
Ha, for sure. You ever had anyone try to pitch you some shitty stock? Granted, I've only had it once and it was great. I wonder where in the hell these guys learned to think about things and who taught them. Absolutely pathetic with no forward looking statements whatsoever.

"The P/E is at a discount..."

Me: "Have you turned on a TV lately, every P/E is at a discount?"

"Well, XX is trading well below its 5 year P/E?"

Me: "Ok, so what if this company had a growth rate of XX for the last few years and now it's only xxx%? You do know that P/E has an anticipated growth factor in it, right?"

"Well, this company is the market leader.."

Me: "Ok, haven't they been the market leader for the last 10 years? What has the stock done, went from 110 to 20? What about market leader wants me to invest in this stock? Do you really think the market doesn't know that XXX is a dominant player? Where does market leadership show up on the financial statements?"

Silence...
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post #10 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 08:48 PM
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LOL.

Yea, Ken Fisher is a moron. I mean he only has like 35 billion under management. Has kicked the S&P 500 return by 5.7% annually for the past decade.

I wish I was this much of a moron.

My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)
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post #11 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 08:52 PM
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LOL.

Yea, Ken Fisher is a moron. I mean he only has like 35 billion under management. Has kicked the S&P 500 return by 5.7% annually for the past decade.

I wish I was this much of a moron.
Damn...I think I saw a ghost!

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post #12 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 08:56 PM
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LOL.

Yea, Ken Fisher is a moron. I mean he only has like 35 billion under management. Has kicked the S&P 500 return by 5.7% annually for the past decade.

I wish I was this much of a moron.
Wow, you're back! I've missed you, trust me.

Fisher has had some great performance, no doubt. But surely you can see some problems with this thesis.
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post #13 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 09:15 PM Thread Starter
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LOL.

Yea, Ken Fisher is a moron. I mean he only has like 35 billion under management. Has kicked the S&P 500 return by 5.7% annually for the past decade.

I wish I was this much of a moron.
Maybe I should rephrase.
1.His statement, as well as reasoning behind it, are retarded.

Saying the US has "too little" debt, when we have the fed selling it through the front door, and buying it through the back, is a perplexing statement at best, and an absolutely crazy one at worst.
It doesn't matter how much debt we can theoretically handle. The ceiling is hit when we run out of people willing to buy it.

As I said before, I am by no means and "investing genius" or a "hot shot". It just seems like a hard pill to swallow given the facts at hand.

Last edited by sc281_99-0135; 09-18-2009 at 09:26 PM. Reason: Edited response for point made. Ran off topic, and realized it in proofreading.
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post #14 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 09:22 PM
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I get pitches from private equity idiots all the time at work. I get pitches from all sorts of idiots really, people who want us to invest in films or some fucking book they wrote or whatever else. Somehow we got on a list of private capital companies even though all we do is real estate.

The hedge fund types are a lot like real estate developers in our business. Some of them make shitpiles of money, some of them fail miserably. They are all full of shit from what I have seen and the guys who make big money are usually stabbing in the fucking dark just like the guys who get killed.
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post #15 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 09:30 PM
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Wow, you're back! I've missed you, trust me.

Fisher has had some great performance, no doubt. But surely you can see some problems with this thesis.
Fisher isn't doing anything but delivering shock value to get him some airtime. His argument is weak from an academic standpoint because of the strawman quality of the argument... All debt is bad and spend some time giving the counter argument to get you some airtime.

In this case Fisher, either on purpose or being an idiot (I really don't think he did it because he is a moron), combines all debt in his argument. As you know slow99 (and I'm sure many on this forum do as well) there are two types of debt: self-liquidating (you borrow x number of dollars to produce y number of widgets and sell y number of widgets and repay the loan and pocket the difference.) and consumption (I'm borrowing money to by a ZR1 because I don't have 130K worth of cash sitting on my desk.)

It doesn't require taking a 1xxx level economics course to realize the difference between the two.

Fisher is a money man. He knows that increased debt levels creates more money in the markets which will make the markets go up which will make his fees go up which will make him more money.

As such his proposition has a large selfish component to it.

When I say I don't think Ken is a moron it is because he isn't. He is proposing something that has the potential to make him millions over the next decade. Regardless of his return on investment.

My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)
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post #16 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 09:31 PM
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Maybe I should rephrase.
1.His statement, as well as reasoning behind it, are retarded.
I will respectfully disagree with part of this. I don't know that I disagree with his statement about ROA vs. the cost of capital. I do, however, feel that he's missing a couple of points.

A. Like the interviewers said, is the cost of borrowing pushed down and how sustainable is this?

B. I think his statements are leaving out the costs of finanical distress. Financial distress costs are huge, whether it be a bank or a sovereign entity.
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post #17 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 09:33 PM
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Fisher isn't doing anything but delivering shock value to get him some airtime. His argument is weak from an academic standpoint because of the strawman quality of the argument... All debt is bad and spend some time giving the counter argument to get you some airtime.

In this case Fisher, either on purpose or being an idiot (I really don't think he did it because he is a moron), combines all debt in his argument. As you know slow99 (and I'm sure many on this forum do as well) there are two types of debt: self-liquidating (you borrow x number of dollars to produce y number of widgets and sell y number of widgets and repay the loan and pocket the difference.) and consumption (I'm borrowing money to by a ZR1 because I don't have 130K worth of cash sitting on my desk.)

It doesn't require taking a 1xxx level economics course to realize the difference between the two.

Fisher is a money man. He knows that increased debt levels creates more money in the markets which will make the markets go up which will make his fees go up which will make him more money.

As such his proposition has a large selfish component to it.

When I say I don't think Ken is a moron it is because he isn't. He is proposing something that has the potential to make him millions over the next decade. Regardless of his return on investment.

Fair enough; I understand what you're saying.
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post #18 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-18-2009, 09:52 PM Thread Starter
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I will respectfully disagree with part of this. I don't know that I disagree with his statement about ROA vs. the cost of capital.
I don't disagree with the reasoning either, for anyone else.
The point I am trying to make is that whether the debt is self liquidating or for consumption, the fact that we are quickly running out of people willing to buy said debt is the problem.
Putting forth the idea that we are under levered and need some more debt when there is noone to sell it to is the issue.

I do get the point you are trying to make 01WC.
For himself, there is upside for his pocket due to the fees, velocity of money, etc. He can make the case for this for his own gains, and I have no problem with that. I absolutley agree with everything you have said when we look at his side of it as a stand alone argument.

I guess I wasn't making my concerns with the video clear, and confusion was the result.

I was looking toward the country as a whole, which he was touting our historically "low" DTI, and making the case that it was good for the country to go into even further debt because of it. I have a huge problem with this component of it, considering our nations precarious financial situtation, and the future spending plans coming down the pike. My concern is that it lends creed to the politicians argument for "spend spend spend", which I believe is exactly the wrong thing to be doing.

Sorry for the confusion. Like I said before, I don't play the market anywhere near as much as you guys; so my line of thought isn't always defaulted to the personal motives or investment strategy of the person speaking. I was taking his argument for what the result would be for the whole, and not for him.

And as far as my opinon of Fisher Investments;
I will admit, my impression of his company as a whole may be eskewed, given our experience. But anyone in business knows a clients perception of a meeting/pitch/employees competence is reality. That may representative of only 1% of the employees in his company, but we were chest deep in that 1% as our experience with a representative of his company.

Last edited by sc281_99-0135; 09-18-2009 at 10:23 PM.
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post #19 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-19-2009, 08:24 AM
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I don't disagree with the reasoning either, for anyone else.
The point I am trying to make is that whether the debt is self liquidating or for consumption, the fact that we are quickly running out of people willing to buy said debt is the problem.
Putting forth the idea that we are under levered and need some more debt when there is noone to sell it to is the issue.

I do get the point you are trying to make 01WC.
For himself, there is upside for his pocket due to the fees, velocity of money, etc. He can make the case for this for his own gains, and I have no problem with that. I absolutley agree with everything you have said when we look at his side of it as a stand alone argument.

I guess I wasn't making my concerns with the video clear, and confusion was the result.

I was looking toward the country as a whole, which he was touting our historically "low" DTI, and making the case that it was good for the country to go into even further debt because of it. I have a huge problem with this component of it, considering our nations precarious financial situtation, and the future spending plans coming down the pike. My concern is that it lends creed to the politicians argument for "spend spend spend", which I believe is exactly the wrong thing to be doing.

Sorry for the confusion. Like I said before, I don't play the market anywhere near as much as you guys; so my line of thought isn't always defaulted to the personal motives or investment strategy of the person speaking. I was taking his argument for what the result would be for the whole, and not for him.

And as far as my opinon of Fisher Investments;
I will admit, my impression of his company as a whole may be eskewed, given our experience. But anyone in business knows a clients perception of a meeting/pitch/employees competence is reality. That may representative of only 1% of the employees in his company, but we were chest deep in that 1% as our experience with a representative of his company.
Wall Street (in this case Wall Street in a figuratively sense since FI is in Cali) is run by a bunch of money grubbing scumbags (no offense Slow99, haha!)

The whole financing the growth of this country was an easy sell job to policiticans. People will come up with all kinds of ways to explain and validate it. Why? Because it puts money in their pocket.

Trust but verify.

Back in my early 20s (remembering this was mid 80s before the internet!) I did what most people did... got a stock broker. I promptly watched as I made 2-4% of year while my broker raked in 1000s in commissions.

About that time I discovered Compuserve and a little service named E-Trade where I could make trades for, I think, $29.95 a trade. Quite a deal given my broker was charging hundreds per trade. I spent the next few years doing nothing but studying the markets and coming up with my trading philosophy which revolves around "follow the big trend line, stupid".

I don't listen too much to the talking heads anymore on CNBC other than as a break from watching the Comedy Channel.

Never believe any of these morons want to help you. They want your money in fees. If you get upset because you didn't make any money while the manager made millions... you'll leave and someone will be waiting in the wings to join up.

Fisher is different in that he is actually aggressively marketing his investment firm (basically a glorified hedge fund) whereas the others take a much more subtle approach (word of mouth, networking, etc.)

My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)
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post #20 of 23 (permalink) Old 09-19-2009, 06:18 PM
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Just one more thing straight out of the communist play book. There is 10 major points. Find the book, read it.



All men should know Honor first, above all else!

Honor is not holding your hand out for something you did not earn.
Honor is not forcing your ideas, or belief on others.
Honor is not something given to you by way of job, or title.

Honor is learned, earned, practiced and respected by all decent men and women.
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post #21 of 23 (permalink) Old 10-04-2009, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra View Post
Wall Street (in this case Wall Street in a figuratively sense since FI is in Cali) is run by a bunch of money grubbing scumbags (no offense Slow99, haha!)


Back in my early 20s (remembering this was mid 80s before the internet!) I did what most people did... got a stock broker. I promptly watched as I made 2-4% of year while my broker raked in 1000s in commissions.
X2 There is a reason they are called brokers. They are generally broke.

First question to anyone pitching you these investment/retirement programs is how much money did you make on your investments vs. how much did you make in commissions selling this stuff. Just a percentage is fine. I don't need actual dollar amounts. I'm betting none make more than 1% on their investments.

Do your own research. Plenty of info out there to make informed educated decisions. And plenty of places to buy online. IMHO you are wasting your time with a broker.

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post #22 of 23 (permalink) Old 10-04-2009, 12:12 PM
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X2 There is a reason they are called brokers. They are generally broke.

First question to anyone pitching you these investment/retirement programs is how much money did you make on your investments vs. how much did you make in commissions selling this stuff. Just a percentage is fine. I don't need actual dollar amounts. I'm betting none make more than 1% on their investments.

Do your own research. Plenty of info out there to make informed educated decisions. And plenty of places to buy online. IMHO you are wasting your time with a broker.
You have to get a good one. Mine saved me thousands.
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post #23 of 23 (permalink) Old 10-08-2009, 01:13 PM
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You have to get a good one. Mine saved me thousands.
As apposed to what? Making you thousands?

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