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post #1 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 07:14 AM Thread Starter
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9.7% jobless rate

Just released, the new rate for August is 9.7%

Yikes.

NO NO NO, it should be DFWLS1's, CUMMINS, C6 VETTES.net
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post #2 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 07:39 AM
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200,000+ jobs being lost per month.

Van Jones will save us.
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post #3 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 07:44 AM
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As long as theres plenty of koolaid to drink the unemployment numbers dont bother me.

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post #4 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 07:56 AM
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but, but health care is the big deal right now.

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post #5 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:02 AM
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post #6 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by 89gt-stanger View Post
Just released, the new rate for August is 9.7%

Yikes.
6 months ago they said it would hit 10%. So why is this a shock at 9.7%?

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post #7 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:09 AM
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6 months ago they said it would hit 10%. So why is this a shock at 9.7%?
It's no "shock", but they were talking by the end of the year. I think it's coming a liitle quicker than expected.

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post #8 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:10 AM
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might not be such a bad sign, since the rate of job losses has slowed. traditionally september and october are months that see a lot of seasonal hiring

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post #9 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:13 AM
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might not be such a bad sign, since the rate of job losses has slowed. traditionally september and october are months that see a lot of seasonal hiring
You don't think the worst jobless rate in 26 years is a bad sign?
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post #10 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:14 AM
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I thought about this number today. 1 and 10 people are out of work. That also quite possibly means the government and our tax dollars are supporting a 1/10 of our population. There is no way that can be supported long term. Especially since we were used to the 3% numbers a few years back. When does it start being considered a Great Depression again?
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post #11 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:14 AM
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I was talking to my neighbor he said his unemployment rate was at 100%.

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post #12 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:15 AM
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You don't think the worst jobless rate in 26 years is a bad sign?
pass the Koolaid bro its all good...

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post #13 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by mstng86 View Post
I thought about this number today. 1 and 10 people are out of work. That also quite possibly means the government and our tax dollars are supporting a 1/10 of our population. There is no way that can be supported long term. Especially since we were used to the 3% numbers a few years back. When does it start being considered a Great Depression again?
LOL, how about 1 out of 10 people that are employed/fulltime are jobless now.

Jobless claims are not population numbers.

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post #14 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:21 AM
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Originally Posted by dewayne6243 View Post
LOL, how about 1 out of 10 people that are employed/fulltime are jobless now.

Jobless claims are not population numbers.
Very true, so the number is even higher population wise.
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post #15 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:22 AM
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You don't think the worst jobless rate in 26 years is a bad sign?
well its not good, but you have to look on the bright side, the rate of losses is slowing, and we are at a time of the year where a lot of hiring traditionally takes place.

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post #16 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:24 AM
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When does it start being considered a Great Depression again?
The great depression was a recession that lasted 43 months. Why did it take Franklin D. Roosevelt that long to pull us out? Because his liberal ideas were failures. This December marks 24 months since the current recession started according to analysts. 1973 and 1981 were the starts of the longest recessions since the great depression and they both lasted 16 months.
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post #17 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:25 AM
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When does it start being considered a Great Depression again?
1930, was 8.7%....1931 was 15.9%

Reading a single one page summary timeline off the internet more than tripled my knowledge of the great depression. And I would consider myself mildly educated about history. 97% of the US are oblivious there was ever a great depression to begin with, let alone what caused it.....

Sadly, reading that timeline was like reading how our current situation got started but instead of technical manufacturing innovation killing jobs, it was giving what jobs were left to the fucking chinese.



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post #18 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:34 AM
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well its not good, but you have to look on the bright side, the rate of losses is slowing, and we are at a time of the year where a lot of hiring traditionally takes place.
Bright side? Seriously? That's what you call "the bright side?" We have the most leftest president in the hisotry of the US who has spent more than all the previous presidents COMBINED, and all you have say is "look on the bright side?"

Now we have the US's largest employer hiring double the rate of the privite sector. "Everyone, just look on the bright side, at least it's slowing down. Keep your head in the sand and keep the kool-aid handy folks! Hope and Change!"
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post #19 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:36 AM
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Sorry guys/gals. But those #'s are fed #'s

They do not count the people that have run out of unemployment benefits.

The true #'s are 20%


Here are the liberal media real #'s
I used a liberal media so the lib's could not cry foul.

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/to...ady-at-20.aspx



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post #20 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:38 AM
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Sorry guys/gals. But those #'s are fed #'s

They do not count the people that have run out of unemployment benefits.

The true #'s are 20%


Here are the liberal media real #'s
I used a liberal media so the lib's could not cry foul.

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/to...ady-at-20.aspx
It also dosen't include people who have given up looking for work and those who are under employed.
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post #21 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:38 AM
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well its not good, but you have to look on the bright side, the rate of losses is slowing, and we are at a time of the year where a lot of hiring traditionally takes place.
How do you know for sure the losses are slowing? What time line are you using for your conclusion?
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post #22 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:43 AM
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6 months ago they said it would hit 10%. So why is this a shock at 9.7%?
I think you're mistaken. To force feed the stimulus bill to the American public, Obama said that unemployment would peak at 8%. Without the stimulus bill, it would rage to 9%.

So, it looks like we got screwed on both accounts.

I don't think anyone is surprised.

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post #23 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:55 AM
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The MSN article is UNDERemployed which someone has already defined, not the same as unemployed.

Last month they changed how they figured unemployed so the rates are probably closer to 10.5-11% if I had to make a blind uneducated guess. Plus you have to figure the people that quit looking for a job.

The way I figure it things are not getting better, they are getting worse. Job losses are slowing, there are also less people to lose jobs. We need to see employment go up for 6 month before I will start getting optomistic.

I think you will see things start to go up if the health care and cap and tax bills fail. If they pass god only knows how low this thing will go. Revamp 1/5th -1/6th of the economy with health care and then send all the jobs overseas with cap and trade?

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post #24 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 08:56 AM
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The unemployment rate was calculated much differently during the great depression. It has always been my understanding that real unemployment was around 30% during that time.

It is good that the rate has slowed. But we may be on the brink of a second CMBS ordeal with the state of commercial real estate. The longer this recession goes on, the more owners you are going to have that go into default. The situation with troubled banks isn't going to change anytime soon thanks to that. Worst case scenario is that it gets much worse. We closed a $47 million loan yesterday on some properties we own but it was very hard to obtain and the underwriting standards are ridiculous. Property owners that are in bad shape are not going to get that sort of financing and are going to mail their keys back. The longer this recession goes on, the more this is going to happen. If it happens enough the banks take another round of massive write downs and it starts all over.

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post #25 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 09:01 AM
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And Biden said that the stimulus is working better than we could have hoped for.
http://televisionwashington.com/floa...n&t=3&id=13682


Anybody hear about the commercial bubble brewing...?

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post #26 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 09:03 AM
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And Biden said that the stimulus is working better than we could have hoped for.
http://televisionwashington.com/floa...n&t=3&id=13682


Anybody hear about the commercial bubble brewing...?
Like the one that Al mentioned in the post above....?

I keep waiting for the credit card industry to get knee-capped by defaults.

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post #27 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 09:05 AM
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Like the one that Al mentioned in the post above....?
LOL...that's what I get for typing responses and getting interrupted.

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post #28 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 09:10 AM
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This web site compares current unemployment numbers to great depression numbers. I do not know that their method is 100% accurate (Using U6 unemployment numbers), but his explanation makes sense. They also compare the stock market trend right now to the great depression. Interesting reading.

http://www.bearmarketcomparison.com/

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post #29 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 09:19 AM
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but, but health care is the big deal right now.
Gives Bait & Switch a whole new meaning...

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post #30 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 12:30 PM
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Anybody hear about the commercial bubble brewing...?
This will be something big once it happens. The media isn't mentioning too much about this, but from what I gather from talking to educated people on the commercial side they can see it becoming a massive problem in the coming months. AL P might have some more insight on that as well.
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post #31 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 12:34 PM
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And Biden said that the stimulus is working better than we could have hoped for.
http://televisionwashington.com/floa...n&t=3&id=13682


Anybody hear about the commercial bubble brewing...?
Here:

Analysts see more trouble ahead for commercial real estate

I. Even as rest of economy shows improvement, commercial RE suffers
A. Sellers of office buildings, shopping centers, warehouses, apartments, hotels feeling pain
1. Building values down as much as 50% nationwide
a. even worse in Manhattan
2. 65% of commercial RE loans due in the next few years unlikely to gain financing
3. $36.1 Billion in securitized loans have been transferred to special servicers
a. special services take on troubled loans
(i) either in bankruptcy, 60 days delinquent, or in imminent danger
of default
(ii) total of 3200 commercial loans worth $49.1 Billion currently in special servicing
(A) projected to hit as high at $100 Billion by year end
B. Banks face large exposure
1. Collectively hold $1.3 trillion in commercial mortgages
2. Banks hold another 535 billion in construction loans
3. $393 billion in mortgage loans set to expire by end of 2010
a. as mentioned previously, 65% unlikely to gain refinancing
C. Complicating the problem
1. Master servicers have no authority to restructure.
a. landlords can't address problems before it's already in special servicing
D. Qualitative commentary
1. Federal loan program aimed at prodding an ailing securitization industry extended
a. unlikely to head off defaults, foreclosure, and bankruptcies
(i) will prop up a few deals but can't stop wave - analyst commentary
b. still in the early stages of downturn, "1st or 2nd inning of the game" - Deutche analyst
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post #32 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 01:13 PM
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I would agree with everything in slow99s list. Additionally:

-Values are tough to determine because transactional volume is very very low. There has been a ~90% drop in the number of transactions since 2007.
-Commerical real estate lags the overall economy much like unemployment. This problem will still exist up to 6 months after there is an official declaration that the recovery is "under way". Meaning it could destroy a recovery.
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post #33 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 01:14 PM
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Al, thread hijack, what percentage of down payment is generally required on commercial property - sub $100k?

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post #34 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 01:54 PM
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great book on the depression "The Forgotten Man"

I learned a lot I didn't know and the similarities of how they fixed things will send a chill down your spine when you compare to today.

http://www.amazon.com/Forgotten-Man-.../dp/0066211700



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post #35 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 02:33 PM
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Al, thread hijack, what percentage of down payment is generally required on commercial property - sub $100k?
Depends on your financing source. 15% is probably going to be the minimum today.
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post #36 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-04-2009, 02:35 PM
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aZPBPX309O64

Capmark Distress May Signal Bank Failures Topping 100 (Update2)
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By Linda Shen

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Capmark Financial Group Inc.’s possible collapse may signal a new wave of real estate losses for banks -- this one tied to business property -- that could push the year’s tally of failures past 100.

Capmark, ranked among the largest U.S. commercial real estate lenders by Moody’s Investors Service, posted a $1.6 billion quarterly loss on Sept. 2 and said it might go bankrupt. The Horsham, Pennsylvania-based company struggled as the default rate on commercial mortgages held by U.S. banks more than doubled to the highest since 1994.

“We haven’t really experienced the full extent of the distress,” said Sam Chandan, chief economist at property research firm Real Estate Econometrics LLC in New York. “When you look at community banks and some smaller regional banks, they tend to have a far greater concentration in terms of their exposure to commercial real estate.”

Lenders are still reeling from residential real estate losses that helped push U.S. bank failures to 84 so far this year. The tally included Colonial BancGroup Inc., the sixth- largest failure in the history of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The total may rise later today because the agency customarily announces the week’s shutdowns on Fridays.

Bank failures last topped 100 in 1992, when at least 179 were seized, according to FDIC data. Chairman Sheila Bair has said more collapses are likely, and the agency’s list of “problem banks” stands at 416, the most in 15 years.

Commercial Holdings

Capmark’s holdings include a banking unit based in Salt Lake City with $11.1 billion in assets and a “well- capitalized” ranking from its regulators, according to the bank’s Web site. Deposits stood at $8.4 billion on June 30, according to the company’s quarterly statement.

U.S. banks hold about $1.087 trillion of commercial property loans, almost 15 percent of their loans and leases, according to Real Estate Econometrics. Stress tests conducted by regulators in May found that the largest U.S. financial firms could face losses of $53 billion tied to commercial real estate.

Late payments on a commercial loan two years ago typically were cured with no damage to the lender, Chandan said. Now, amid the worst economic slump since the Great Depression, bankers are finding late payments are more likely to signal an actual loss is brewing, he said.

Risks are heightened for property owners who need to refinance because property values have dropped, said Terry McEvoy, an analyst with Oppenheimer & Co. in Portland, Maine. That makes it harder for owners to get new loans covering their original debt.

‘Red Flags’

“We’re still in the early stages of the commercial real estate cycle and things will get worse before they get better,” McEvoy said.

Losses at Capmark “would raise that red flag” about commercial real estate for more lenders, said Kevin Fitzsimmons, an analyst with New York-based Sandler O’Neill & Partners LP.

Capmark was a unit of Detroit-based GMAC LLC until 2006, and current owners include funds run by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and KKR & Co. The company originated more than $10 billion in loans last year, according to Moody’s, and 97 percent of the total loan portfolio was first-lien commercial mortgages, Capmark said in its Sept. 2 earnings statement.

Assets originated by Capmark that are no longer collecting interest more than doubled to 7.6 percent of total assets as of June 30 from the end of 2008, after accounting for reserves, the company said. Capmark posted losses in North America, Asia and European units during the quarter and raised the provision for bad loans to $345.8 million from $10.4 million. The FDIC plans to impose curbs on operations at Capmark Bank and demand a plan for boosting capital and liquidity, the company said.

Buffett’s Offer

Restructuring efforts may include filing for bankruptcy or the contribution of assets into the Capmark Bank unit, the lender said. The company struck a deal with Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Leucadia National Corp. to sell its loan servicing and mortgage units for as much as $490 million.

Capmark today had its debt rating cut by Moody’s to C because the asset sale and declining value of its remaining units increase the odds that creditors won’t get paid. A call to Capmark spokeswoman Joyce Patterson wasn’t immediately returned.

The nation’s small- and medium-sized banks may be most vulnerable because their loans are concentrated in commercial mortgages, said Thomas Atteberry, who manages $3.5 billion at First Pacific Advisors LLC in Los Angeles. Commercial mortgages equal about 41 percent of their total loan portfolio, Atteberry said, citing data from Montreal-based BCA Research Inc.

The fund manager said he’s avoiding debt issued by smaller banks because “a lot of what you are basing your investment on is that someone will bail you out.”
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post #37 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 08:56 PM
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is what they have reported

Quote:
Originally Posted by 89gt-stanger View Post
Just released, the new rate for August is 9.7%

Yikes.
Actual numbers are way higher close to 20%

Remember gov is a bunch of Liars out to line THERE pockets not your.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Cz4vcQKWfA
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post #38 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 10:18 PM
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No worries. Hell, the first time I was looking for a job it was at this level and I got a job.

Forgetting the issue with bank failures for the moment my bigger concern is the death of retail. Watch this industry.

America is built on the consumer and the retail industry is on death watch and might die in 2010. I think you'll see 100s if not 1000s of stores close in 2010 and you'll see major names die in the market. Forget about the housing industry, forget about the banking industry... if the retail industry closes down we're fucked.

Banking on Kohl's to survive intact as their cost cutting measures over the past few years will pay dividends.

On a side note I went long the market (100%) in March and made 30% this year and I'm back to cash waiting for the inevitable double dip to lows.

Back to playing 100K hands worth of online poker a month. LOL.

My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)
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post #39 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 10:22 PM
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Actual numbers are way higher close to 20%

Remember gov is a bunch of Liars out to line THERE pockets not your.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Cz4vcQKWfA
Flanders, for a newb, you are absolutely correct.

The Government reports the U3 number. We really need to be looking at the U6 number which includes marginally employed workers.

For August 2009 the U6 number stands at 16.8% up from 10.7% a year ago.

My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)
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post #40 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 10:39 PM
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Originally Posted by mstng86 View Post
I thought about this number today. 1 and 10 people are out of work. ...
Thank God 2-9 are working!

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Originally Posted by dewayne6243 View Post
LOL, how about 1 out of 10 people that are employed/fulltime are jobless now...


How in hell is someone that is employed/fulltime considered jobless? Seriously...
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post #41 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 10:44 PM
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No worries. Hell, the first time I was looking for a job it was at this level and I got a job.

Forgetting the issue with bank failures for the moment my bigger concern is the death of retail. Watch this industry.

America is built on the consumer and the retail industry is on death watch and might die in 2010. I think you'll see 100s if not 1000s of stores close in 2010 and you'll see major names die in the market. Forget about the housing industry, forget about the banking industry... if the retail industry closes down we're fucked.

Banking on Kohl's to survive intact as their cost cutting measures over the past few years will pay dividends.

On a side note I went long the market (100%) in March and made 30% this year and I'm back to cash waiting for the inevitable double dip to lows.

Back to playing 100K hands worth of online poker a month. LOL.

Interestingly enough, I cover retail for the Fund here at McCombs. I put a 100 bps overweight on Kohl's a while back, been a nice position and added some value. Excellent retailer with some growth upside. Bought KR in the Food & Retail sector to gain some exposure to pure grocers. I've bought 6 positions and the only one that didn't hit my price target was Wal-Mart. Fucking stock just hasn't moved in the last couple of quarters. I recently sold some bps in Wal-Mart to equal weight and using the bps to buy some different names. I covered hard commodity names this summer for Cimarron and have a pretty good view of where that sector is headed. Also covered some consumer names as well, and think one name in particular is a pretty good buy. I'm unable to buy it for the Fund, but I picked some up in my personal account. I agree, I think the retail sector is in for some pain over the coming year. The massive run-ups in some of the names has been completely speculative, in my opinion. I think a good number are facing significant headwinds over the months to come.
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post #42 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 10:54 PM
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....We closed a $47 million loan yesterday on some properties we own but it was very hard to obtain and the underwriting standards are ridiculous...
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Originally Posted by AL P View Post
Depends on your financing source. 15% is probably going to be the minimum today.

Holy hell but what exactly is the monthly payment on that? Break it out into interest if you don't mind...


That will be a number that fewer than 1% of this board could handle no doubt...
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post #43 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 11:26 PM
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Rough calculation (while drunk) at 20 years on a $47 MM obligation at 15% is $619,000 a month. If it's 30 years on a the same obligation, the payment is about $594,000 a month. For some reason, I'm thinking the CRE industry might do 10 year deals, so at 10 years it would be closer to $760,000 monthly payment. I'm sure Al will be able to shed some more accurate light on these numbers. With any amortization schedule, the interest per payment will be front-loaded then taper off.
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post #44 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 11:27 PM
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I'm good for 1/42 the light bill on that bitch...
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post #45 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 11:29 PM
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I'm good for 1/42 the light bill on that bitch...
Just posted my rough estimates, not sure if you caught them.
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post #46 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 11:36 PM
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Just posted my rough estimates, not sure if you caught them.
I did, which cemented the realization I wouldn't be able to finance pest control on an operation such as that...


Numbers most of us will never be able to accurately fathom that you guys are dealing with. Very cool y'all get to do what you do...
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post #47 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 11:53 PM
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I did, which cemented the realization I wouldn't be able to finance pest control on an operation such as that...


Numbers most of us will never be able to accurately fathom that you guys are dealing with. Very cool y'all get to do what you do...
As I said, who knows how accurate those numbers are. Al can verfiy the figures tomorrow, this is his area of expertise. I honestly read enough, outline enough now, and see billions, hundreds of billions, even trillions of dollars thrown around like nothing. It's pretty scary, I don't think the state of the US is beyond repair, but I'm definitely not optimistic about the way things are going now.
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post #48 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-06-2009, 11:54 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra View Post
Forgetting the issue with bank failures for the moment my bigger concern is the death of retail. Watch this industry.

America is built on the consumer and the retail industry is on death watch and might die in 2010. I think you'll see 100s if not 1000s of stores close in 2010 and you'll see major names die in the market. Forget about the housing industry, forget about the banking industry... if the retail industry closes down we're fucked.
I agree with this. The consumer is tapped out, unemployed, upside down, fearful of being laid off, etc......

So the ones making any kind of extra money are using it to pay down debt.

And I understand that the savings rate is up a little also.

What people are buying are pretty much the necessities. The government can prop up consumer spending for awhile (cash for clunkers), but its only for a little while.

I know that i've bought my last new car, ever. Saturday we picked up a nice little v6 mustang for my youngest daughter and paid 2500. I think that is going to be our pattern for the foreseeable future. I can only imagine that there are legions of people doing exactly the same. Good thing that I can work on cars

Meanwhile, the retailers have their hopes pinned on christmas. I predict that its going to be a very lean christmas this year for them.
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post #49 of 49 (permalink) Old 09-07-2009, 12:00 AM
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I agree with this. The consumer is tapped out, unemployed, upside down, fearful of being laid off, etc......

So the ones making any kind of extra money are using it to pay down debt.

And I understand that the savings rate is up a little also.

What people are buying are pretty much the necessities. The government can prop up consumer spending for awhile (cash for clunkers), but its only for a little while.

I know that i've bought my last new car, ever. Saturday we picked up a nice little v6 mustang for my youngest daughter and paid 2500. I think that is going to be our pattern for the foreseeable future. I can only imagine that there are legions of people doing exactly the same. Good thing that I can work on cars

Meanwhile, the retailers have their hopes pinned on christmas. I predict that its going to be a very lean christmas this year for them.
The recent run-up in the values of some retailers is by investors who have very optimistic views. People are now going out the 2011/2012 earnings just to justify multiples. Yeah, the savings rates have seen unprecedented moves. I love to hear people think that it's a fleeting thing. The consumer has been burned over the last few months and I just don't see a massive return to spending.
Don't forget that we have the largest %-age of our population over 50/55 that we've ever had. This was the group that got burned the worst as they're nearing retirement. I just can't see a strong return in consumer spending away from savings happening anytime soon. Mean reversion is a mutha.
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