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post #1 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 05:59 PM Thread Starter
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What's a few trillion between friends?

Obama Raises Deficit Estimate to $1.5 Trillion
Unfortunately the stock market isn't the only thing to have risen over the past few months. Obama announced today that U.S. unemployment will surge to 10 percent and the budget deficit will be $1.5 trillion next year - both higher than originally estimated. The deficit, as well as the growing unemployment numbers will certainly throw a monkey wrench into Obama's plan to "overhaul" the health care system. Sean agreed with House Republican Leader John Boehner who said ObamaCare "is just the latest in a long line of expensive Democratic experiments that will add to the deficit, raise taxes on families and small businesses and cost more American jobs." { Politico Article}. Things have gotten so bad that Rhode Island will shut down its state government for twelve days in an attempt to balance their budget which has been slammed by rising unemployment and nose-diving tax revenue { Article}.
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post #2 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 06:15 PM
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post #3 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 08:37 PM
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Wow.

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In a chilling forecast, the White House is predicting a 10-year federal deficit of $9 trillion — more than the sum of all previous deficits since America's founding


.

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post #4 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 08:41 PM
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Wow.
Hope and change!

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post #5 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 09:14 PM
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Hope and change!
I don't think I can afford a Super Size Hope and Change.

How much for just a small order of Hope?
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post #6 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 09:49 PM
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i don't think i can afford a super size hope and change.

How much for just a small order of hope?
$20.10 sound like a decent starting point?
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post #7 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 09:52 PM
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I don't know about ya'll but my hope is long gone.
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post #8 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 09:54 PM
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Fuck.
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post #9 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 10:01 PM
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So if I spent a million dollars a day how long would it take me to spend 3/4 of the entire US economy?

Not sure how you could do it for more than a couple months at a time but hey...
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post #10 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 10:06 PM
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So if I spent a million dollars a day how long would it take me to spend 3/4 of the entire US economy?

Not sure how you could do it for more than a couple months at a time but hey...
My quick estimate shows about 28,500 years.
Also, don't believe those stats that are thrown out about the US debt level being XX percent of GDP. That doesn't include privately held debt, when you include all debt, it's close to 75% of GDP. I can't remember the exact numbers, but it changes dramatically.
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post #11 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 10:10 PM
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1,000,000, days would be 1 trillion

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Originally Posted by Fox466 View Post
So if I spent a million dollars a day how long would it take me to spend 3/4 of the entire US economy?

Not sure how you could do it for more than a couple months at a time but hey...
if 3/4 of the economy was 7.5 trillion, it would be 7.5 million days or 20,833 years.
all those zeros get me confused and that's exactly what Obama hopes for.
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post #12 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 10:11 PM
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My quick estimate shows about 37,800 years.
Also, don't believe those stats that are thrown out about the US debt level being XX percent of GDP. That doesn't include privately held debt, when you include all debt, it's close to 75% of GDP. I can't remember the exact numbers, but it changes dramatically.

Now that deserves an all capital fuck. May just be me but saying 75% is 'a lot' seems to be a tad bit of an understatement...
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post #13 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 10:14 PM
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Now that deserves an all capital fuck. May just be me but saying 75% is 'a lot' seems to be a tad bit of an understatement...
It's not good. Believe it or not, the UK is significantly worse off. I'm scared of the shitstorm that potentially lies ahead for Europe as well with the bank balance sheet situation that exists there.
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post #14 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 10:34 PM
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http://www.usdebtclock.org/


The US debt clock shows that each citizen owes about 38k. I'll make a deal with the goverment right now. I'll cut them a check for 38k tomorrow as long as they don't charge me income tax for the rest of my life. I wonder how many takers they would have if they offered this deal to the general public. On top of giving them 38k I'd also let them keep all the money I've paid into Social Security if they'd let me opt out of that program.

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post #15 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 12:38 AM
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what you guys care for!! Its not REAL money, its all make believe! The government doesnt seem to be bothered by the fact that the US doesnt actually make any profit and just prints more and more money!

Thats a house of cards that is going to come crashing down in a big way. and no, i dont blame obama for it. Its the entire effing government for the last few decades. JACKASSES!!

The trouble with doing something right the first time is that nobody appreciates how difficult it was.
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post #16 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 10:57 AM
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According to the Whitehouse this is all GW's fault and they are just cleaning up the mess!!??

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post #17 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 11:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreightTrain View Post
http://www.usdebtclock.org/


The US debt clock shows that each citizen owes about 38k. I'll make a deal with the goverment right now. I'll cut them a check for 38k tomorrow as long as they don't charge me income tax for the rest of my life. I wonder how many takers they would have if they offered this deal to the general public. On top of giving them 38k I'd also let them keep all the money I've paid into Social Security if they'd let me opt out of that program.
i would be all over that!
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post #18 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 11:14 AM
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If you spent $100 a second it would take you 2900 years to equal the United States deficit. That is just crazy.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

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post #19 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 11:14 AM
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Fuck.
I get concerned when I see this from you.

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post #20 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 11:15 AM
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i would be all over that!
Of course you would. Anybody that pays into the system would! However, that would not work into our politicians' plan to buy votes using your future earnings.
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post #21 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 01:45 PM
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I get concerned when I see this from you.
Like I said, the number that gets reported in the media is that our debt to GDP ratio is about 40% and that we shouldn't be scared until it gets to the 75-80% range. What they never report is, that it's already at the 80% level.
In reality, we have ~$11 trillion of debt and our GDP is ~$14 trillion. Roughly $7 trillion is held by the public: investors like you and me, institutional investors (mutal funds, pensions, etc) and foreign governments. About $4 trillion of the debt is held by our government, which is where the confusion starts. If the government lends to itself, is it really debt?
Social Security has about $4 trillion today but a Present Value liability of roughly $20 trillion. Debt stories that hit the media ignore the unfunded liabilities that are, in effect, on the government's balance sheet. The Treasury estimates the amount of these un/underfunded liabilites to be roughly $45 trillion. So, if you speak about reality, our debt is about 400% of GDP.

My favorite Prof here, a Financial genius, just published a paper comparing the United States to GM. Very interesting read. The problem certainly isn't irreparable, but it is going to be a huge problem to overcome.
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post #22 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 01:47 PM
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My favorite Prof here, a Financial genius, just published a paper comparing the United States to GM. Very interesting read. The problem certainly isn't irreparable, but it is going to be a huge problem to overcome.


Is there any way to post it here? I'd be very interested in reading it.
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post #23 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 01:49 PM
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Is there any way to post it here? I'd be very interested in reading it.
I'm sure I probably couldn't post it here; I might be able to email it though. I'm meeting up with him tomorrow, I'll see then.
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post #24 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 01:51 PM
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I'm sure I probably couldn't post it here; I might be able to email it though. I'm meeting up with him tomorrow, I'll see then.
If he gives the ok, I'd be happy to read his insights on this.

Pming you my email just in case.
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post #25 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 01:58 PM
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If he gives the ok, I'd be happy to read his insights on this.

Pming you my email just in case.
Got it. He's an incredibly bright guy who prides himself on being a practicioner and not a "researcher". He has his law degree and was a felony prosecutor for years. He actually handled the Sterling Foster case, which is widely presumed to be the basis of the movie Boiler Room. He then got his MBA from McCombs, then CFA, and managed a hedge fund for a few years before coming back here to run our MBA Investment Fund.
He always tends to lean toward the bearish and pessimistic side, and has told us several times he's pissed off that Roubini got the nickname Dr. Doom b/c he wanted it. Always does have some great insight though.

Last edited by slow99; 08-26-2009 at 02:29 PM.
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post #26 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 02:04 PM
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Is there any way to post it here? I'd be very interested in reading it.
x2.

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post #27 of 27 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 02:27 PM
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You know the shit has hit the fan when the government starts shutting itself down. (rhode island)
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