Now that Cash for Clunkers is dead... - DFWstangs Forums
 
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post #1 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 02:13 PM Thread Starter
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Now that Cash for Clunkers is dead...

what's it going to take to jump start auto sales the next time the industry takes a dump. I remember around 2000 or 2001 Auto Sales were starting to slide and the industry rolled out 0% financing and the cows came running to the feed lot aka dealerships faster than anyone could of imagined. That marketing technique worked, but it soon lost it's luster. Just look at consumers this time around. The car makers tried to dangle 0% in front of everyone's face, but the consumer did not budge. They were holding out for more and Cash For Clunkers is just what they were waiting for. My biggest problem is that it's human nature to know that a good deal last year, last month, or even last week isn't a good deal today. We all want a better deal than what was offered last time. So does anyone want to take a guess at what it's going to take to get people to buy cars next time sales are down. I personally am still holding out on a buy one get one free. I've told my fiance thats the only way she will ever get a new car as long as she is married to me.

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Last edited by FreightTrain; 08-25-2009 at 02:29 PM.
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post #2 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 02:34 PM
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I think Nissan or Mazda did that a year or two ago at the end of the model year.

First though, we have Cash for Refrigerators coming up this fall.....
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post #3 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 02:37 PM
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what's it going to take to jump start auto sales the next time the industry takes a dump. I remember around 2000 or 2001 Auto Sales were starting to slide and the industry rolled out 0% financing and the cows came running to the feed lot aka dealerships faster than anyone could of imagined. That marketing technique worked, but it soon lost it's luster. Just look at consumers this time around. The car makers tried to dangle 0% in front of everyone's face, but the consumer did not budge. They were holding out for more and Cash For Clunkers is just what they were waiting for. My biggest problem is that it's human nature to know that a good deal last year, last month, or even last week isn't a good deal today. We all want a better deal than what was offered last time. So does anyone want to take a guess at what it's going to take to get people to buy cars next time sales are down. I personally am still holding out on a buy one get on free. I've told my fiance thats the only way she will ever get a new car as long as she is married to me.
I think that the auto sales slowdown is because of:

1. cars are lasting a lot longer than they used to - hell, you got 300k out of a focus
2. it is no longer seen as a status symbol to have a new car sitting in the driveway every 2-3 years
3. cars cost a hell of a lot more than they used to, making people use them longer to get their moneys worth out of them
4. people are flat broke and are only spending on necessities
5. A lot of people see the wisdom in buying used

The cash for clunkers deal probably got a lot of people to trade in perfectly good cars for new ones, but I also saw quite a few piles of shit that got traded in as well.

Now, to answer your question - I think it'll be exorbitant gas prices that'll cause the next rush to the dealer (ie: when gas crosses $4/gallon again). Or if some new breakthru tehnology comes around that triples gas mileage.

Of course, these guys might get in the way (a honda insight mated to a vw tdi diesel that gets over 90mpg). If someone started a business doing this conversion you could sell every one that you could make, easily. Makes the prius and all of that high technology look kind of stupid now, knocked down by a lowly diesel.

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post #4 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 03:15 PM
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All that the clunker program did was to pull forward sales. People were going to buy a new vehicle sooner or later, they just did it sooner. Now that sucked out sales from every month for the next year or so.

Sales should drop to below pre-clunker's level.
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post #5 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 03:49 PM
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How about just making prices more reasonable. If they would lower prices by a third, they would sell twice as many cars, employ more people, and likely net the same percentage profit while increasing market share. I guess Henry Ford's lessons are lost on them.
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post #6 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 05:14 PM
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How about just making prices more reasonable. If they would lower prices by a third, they would sell twice as many cars, employ more people, and likely net the same percentage profit while increasing market share. I guess Henry Ford's lessons are lost on them.
Exactly! My parents bought a fully loaded out F-350 in '96 for 30k-32k something like that. If they were at that price range now I'd go out and buy one tomorrow.
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post #7 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 05:37 PM
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How about just making prices more reasonable. If they would lower prices by a third, they would sell twice as many cars, employ more people, and likely net the same percentage profit while increasing market share. I guess Henry Ford's lessons are lost on them.
If you look at the price of cars compared to inflation over the last 30 years, you'd know that cars are friggin cheap.

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post #8 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 05:45 PM
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Average 2007 vehicle price was $27,958.

Average yearly income for 2007 was $40,405.

That means that an average new car costs 69% of an average yearly wage.

Average 1957 vehicle price was $2,100.

Average yearly income in 1957 was $4,550.

That means that an average car cost 46% of an average yearly wage then, a reduction of nearly a fourth.

Drop the price of a $27,958 car by 23% to $21,528 and see how many you can sell. Probably a nice sizable increase in volumes.
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post #9 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 05:47 PM
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Exactly! My parents bought a fully loaded out F-350 in '96 for 30k-32k something like that. If they were at that price range now I'd go out and buy one tomorrow.
What are you talking about, the 96's are still that price

I havent checked the new ones out in awhile, what are they going for now, $80k?
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post #10 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-25-2009, 06:29 PM
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What are you talking about, the 96's are still that price

I havent checked the new ones out in awhile, what are they going for now, $80k?
In 2005 we went looking to trade in our '96 F350 diesel, we bought the truck in '99 at a dealer auction for just over $16k. The 2005 model F350 basically just a 9 year newer replacement of ours they wanted $60,000. Needless to say we still own that 1996 model and at 202k miles it pulls just as strong as that 2005 would(little more bumpy though). I wouldn't be surprised if they were $80k now.

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post #11 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 12:43 AM
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probably gonna end up like the housing craze. People got a good deal on a car, once payments come due they realize they still cant afford it and repos start in full swing. Then the goverment will claim innnocence of course

The trouble with doing something right the first time is that nobody appreciates how difficult it was.
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post #12 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 06:03 AM
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The number of vehicles sold, over the long term, is not just based upon the cost of the vehicle. It has to do with market saturation. Vehicle sales are driven on replacement rate, now that most people have one or two, which I am single and have two vehicles I do not need to buy another one for awhile.
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post #13 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 12:14 PM
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Might help if they produced a field of cars that people actually WANT, rather than this hybrid crossover wind-up toy ugly ass shit that they've been producing lately. and fire their designers who come up with these horrendous piles of shit. And dropped the prices of these turds too.

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post #14 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 12:50 PM
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I think people just realize what a scam buying a car at the stealership is.. example... I can go buy a brand new really nice dodge 2500 diesel for 48-50k at the dealership... or I can get a 2008 used with 10-15k miles for 35 k off of ebay or anywhere else with a transferable warranty...


same damn truck... 15k cheaper.
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post #15 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 01:11 PM
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Now that its completely fucked the auto repair industry......Our suppliers are laying people off like crazy. We mainly deal with big jobs like engine and transmisson swaps. Ive done 1 engine change in 2 months. Everything else has been small shit.
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post #16 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 01:19 PM
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I wasn't a big fan of the clash for clunkers, it could be a good deal for some but many just added a brand new car with a new debt to their agenda. I don't see how that really helped our economic times for those people. More debt, thanks obama!

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post #17 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 01:20 PM
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Now that its completely fucked the auto repair industry......Our suppliers are laying people off like crazy. We mainly deal with big jobs like engine and transmisson swaps. Ive done 1 engine change in 2 months. Everything else has been small shit.
The cash for clunkers hasn't been going on for 2 months..?
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post #18 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 02:01 PM
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Seems to be the ameican way, living in debt. The government does it and they want the people to do it aswell.

The trouble with doing something right the first time is that nobody appreciates how difficult it was.
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post #19 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 05:41 PM
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Exactly! My parents bought a fully loaded out F-350 in '96 for 30k-32k something like that. If they were at that price range now I'd go out and buy one tomorrow.
I had a 95 F-350 PSD, XLT, crew cab, 4x4 that I stickered for around $31k and I paid $27k. 11 years later my F-350 was double that.

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post #20 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 09:17 PM
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I think Nissan or Mazda did that a year or two ago at the end of the model year.

First though, we have Cash for Refrigerators coming up this fall.....

Awesome news! The 18 year old fridge I have now is crapping out so time to make a move...


Also just found out that I can get $1500 back on the ac unit I just put in the gameroom.


Obama sure is a swell guy for giving me y'alls tax money for doing shit I had to do anyways...
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post #21 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-26-2009, 10:19 PM
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Awesome news! The 18 year old fridge I have now is crapping out so time to make a move...


Also just found out that I can get $1500 back on the ac unit I just put in the gameroom.


Obama sure is a swell guy for giving me y'alls tax money for doing shit I had to do anyways...
Same here for me, mike. I've having my home a/c replaced once it cools off and with the appliance deal i'll probably be looking at some new appliacances as well. Most people aren't aware but r22 is going away next year too so there may be a lot of people making the same move because of that and the availability of the tax deal.
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post #22 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-27-2009, 12:08 AM
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appliance deal? huh? you guys serious?

The trouble with doing something right the first time is that nobody appreciates how difficult it was.
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post #23 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-27-2009, 08:30 AM
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appliance deal? huh? you guys serious?
as a heart attack

http://www.reuters.com/article/mnEne...79891520090825

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'Cash for Refrigerators' Debuts in Fall. Really.

By Joe Walsh

Before heading home to face the anger at the now infamous health care "town halls," Congress rushed through an extension to what was then considered a popular program: Cash for Clunkers. Then, like much of the August break, Cash for Clunkers went sideways as critics picked apart the program's weaknesses, consumers stopped showing up with so many clunkers, and dealers started making noise about something as simple as when they might actually get the rebate money that the government promised.

So, what do you do when you have a poorly-conceived and ill-managed project winding down (Clunkers expires at 8 p.m. eastern on August 24)? Kick off another one, even more poorly thought out, and gloss it with an equally catchy name: Cash for Refrigerators. Beginning in the fall, consumers will have access - through existing state-level energy efficiency incentive programs - $300 million in stimulus funds made available as rebates for energy efficient appliances.

So far, so good. If a consumer is out buying an appliance to replace an existing or broken-down one, it is better that they choose an energy efficient model. But, what about special incentive program purchases? Who is the buyer and why are they buying?

The answer is that the most well-educated and most discerning consumers become aware of and make use of special rebate programs for energy efficient appliances. These are not impulse buyers. Some may actually be committed to greening their kitchen and just waiting for the right incentive push, but I doubt it. In other words, my perception is that most of the $300 million will go to middle-class households that already may have a relatively efficient refrigerator, like Clunkers, it won't get at the really dreadful stuff in use in the lowest income households.

Worse still, this program does not borrow one component from Clunkers that would actually have been effective: there is no requirement to take the old appliance offline. Odds are that many of the middle class households claiming the rebate will use the new appliance in the kitchen, and move the old one to the basement, the garage, or the back porch, where it will be pressed into service storing extra beer and the overflow from Costco. The old fridge remains on the grid and we add in the new appliance too. Does that sound like a good environmental deal?

Granted, it would be very difficult to have consumers truck their old fridge in to dispose of it and claim eligibility for the program, but why not make disposal of the appliance part of the program and use some of the $300 million to fund existing programs in cities around the U.S. which haul away old appliances and make sure that they are disposed of properly - or, at all.

Without some guarantee that the old appliance is coming offline, there is no telling what the efficiency gains of this kind of spending might actually be. With appliances that are unlikely to find duplicate use in the house (i.e., a dishwasher), the program may return some value in kwH reduction; but, without a guarantee in place, we might just have given the cash directly to the appliance manufacturers and saved a lot of administrative difficulty.

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post #24 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-27-2009, 10:17 AM
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I need a new fridge, so I'll hop on this one. Any info on going about it?

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post #25 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-27-2009, 03:53 PM
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when's "Cash for Big Screens" and "Cash For DVD Players" going to be available?

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post #26 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-27-2009, 09:04 PM
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when's "Cash for Big Screens" and "Cash For DVD Players" going to be available?
After the next hurricane in New Orleans.

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post #27 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-27-2009, 10:04 PM
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After the next hurricane in New Orleans.
except it will be called "Cash and Big Screens"...

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post #28 of 29 (permalink) Old 08-28-2009, 08:48 AM
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definately cant wait for the cash for fridge deal! Our refrigerator is a piece of shit!!

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