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post #1 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 05:27 AM Thread Starter
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Worst is yet to come


http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...%5EDJI,RTH,TGT

An $8 trillion negative wealth effect from declining home values.
A $10 trillion negative wealth effect from weakened capital markets.
A $14 trillion consumer debt load amid "exploding unemployment", leading to "exploding bankruptcies."
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post #2 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 05:58 AM
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TDD, your posts are always SO uplifting!

But I can't help but laugh a little, most American's did this to themselves out of pure greed. Greed for more material possessions. The average American came think he/she should have a $250K house (dallas market value) two $40K cars, a plasma TV in every room, and weelkly shopping trips for ever more trinkets.

I've watched in amazement knowing this was unsustainable, same with business, 20% a year growth in the DOW....is not sustainable.

My freinds all told me I was a "stick in the mud". All my co-workers were in half million dollars homes & Lexuses, while I stuck with $130K home and paid for Ranger. I carry zero credit card debt, zero debt, other than my house.

Then the lay offs came, and folks lost half their 401K's. Some of my laid off co-workers are already in SERIOUS financial trouble. Meanwhile stick-in-the-mud Scott only has to take $500 a month out of the bank to pays his bills, when combined with unemployment checks. I'll be just fine for the rest of the year.....but I do feel bad for those who basic living expense are $7000 a month and they're unemployed.
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post #3 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 06:08 AM Thread Starter
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I don't mean to be the barer of bad news. I try to help inform people of the direction of the economy. Several of my friends discuss finances and the direction of the economy. I am glad that I only lost 6% last year, because I knew what was coming. I had been reading about the coming debt collapse for a couple years.

I honestly believe that we have a protracted down turn where all the bad debt needs to be wiped out. Being that our banking system is built on debt, that will mean a serious destruction of the money supply and economic activity. All the government will be able to do is slow down the process while lengthening the effect, probably for ten years, just like Japan.
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post #4 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 06:14 AM
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I don't mean to be the barer of bad news. I try to help inform people of the direction of the economy. Several of my friends discuss finances and the direction of the economy. I am glad that I only lost 6% last year, because I knew what was coming. I had been reading about the coming debt collapse for a couple years.

I honestly believe that we have a protracted down turn where all the bad debt needs to be wiped out. Being that our banking system is built on debt, that will mean a serious destruction of the money supply and economic activity. All the government will be able to do is slow down the process while lengthening the effect, probably for ten years, just like Japan.
For the most part I agree with that, although since the US economy is so much bigger than the Japanese economy, I think the recovery will take more like 5 years. But there will be LONG lasting effects, it will be decades before the BLING-BLING style living of 2005 returns. The Great depression kept people tight with thier money for 40 years afterwards.
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post #5 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 06:26 AM
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For the most part I agree with that, although since the US economy is so much bigger than the Japanese economy, I think the recovery will take more like 5 years. But there will be LONG lasting effects, it will be decades before the BLING-BLING style living of 2005 returns. The Great depression kept people tight with thier money for 40 years afterwards.
I agree with this! I think 5 years is a bit long, but who knows? In the long run, it may strengthen our country and economy. Hopefully it will also affect the "BMW-drivers-on-foodstamps" crowd.

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post #6 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 06:30 AM
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I agree with this! I think 5 years is a bit long, but who knows? In the long run, it may strengthen our country and economy. Hopefully it will also affect the "BMW-drivers-on-foodstamps" crowd.
racist!
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post #7 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 06:35 AM
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racist!
LOL! Color was never mentioned...you stereotypical whiteboy, you.

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post #8 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 06:38 AM
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LOL! Color was never mentioned...you stereotypical whiteboy, you.
Your comment inferred race! and of course BMW's is a yuppy white boy car!
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post #9 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 08:08 AM
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Americans now days are not the same breed as the ones living during the depression . Now days we have super short memories . Hell 9-11 was less than 9 years ago and most people barely remember it and hardly anyone still has the same intense feelings they did after it happend . Once this crap clears up , people will be right back to living outside their means and trying to keep up with others in materialistic goods .
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post #10 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 08:20 AM
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This is really affecting the 40K millionaires out there for sure. I have no sympathy for the people buying more home, more car, and nore "stuff" than they can afford.

BTW, 40K millionaire is a term I heard recently to describe the people who only make 40K a year but live like they are millionaires with leased BMW's, Navigators, Mercedes, etc.

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I have to agree with a quote from former Treasury Secretary William E. Simon: "Bad politicians are sent to Washington by good people who don't vote."
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post #11 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 08:24 AM
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This is really affecting the 40K millionaires out there for sure. I have no sympathy for the people buying more home, more car, and nore "stuff" than they can afford.

BTW, 40K millionaire is a term I heard recently to describe the people who only make 40K a year but live like they are millionaires with leased BMW's, Navigators, Mercedes, etc.
They must have made a cost of living adjustment as they used to be listed as 30k/yr/M

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
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"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #12 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 08:33 AM
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They must have made a cost of living adjustment as they used to be listed as 30k/yr/M
I guess it costs more to mainatin that bling image, yo!

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“An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.”
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I have to agree with a quote from former Treasury Secretary William E. Simon: "Bad politicians are sent to Washington by good people who don't vote."
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post #13 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 08:35 AM
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I feel like my grandparents are posting. The flip side of all this "I told you so" bullshit is that without risk there is no reward.
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post #14 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 08:47 AM
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I feel like my grandparents are posting. The flip side of all this "I told you so" bullshit is that without risk there is no reward.
That's true, but a big problem is that people weren't leveraging the credit to increase revenue potential, they were buying worthless bullshit or kiting other credit.

Now we have a bunch of worthless bullshit and no revenue potential.

I wish the spendulus package had a few bucks in it to teach unemployed people new skills, and require that anyone receiving assistance attend and pass a mandatory credit and investment class. The biggest problem I see with this country is that a majority of Americans are lazy, and are financial idiots.
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post #15 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 08:55 AM
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That's true, but a big problem is that people weren't leveraging the credit to increase revenue potential, they were buying worthless bullshit or kiting other credit.

Now we have a bunch of worthless bullshit and no revenue potential.

I wish the spendulus package had a few bucks in it to teach unemployed people new skills, and require that anyone receiving assistance attend and pass a mandatory credit and investment class. The biggest problem I see with this country is that a majority of Americans are lazy, and are financial idiots.
Until folks are made to pay for their indiscretions, they won't stop. Used to be if someone filed bankruptcy, they were a disgrace and lived on the damn street. Now, 2 years later, they can buy another house...

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post #16 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 08:57 AM
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That's true, but a big problem is that people weren't leveraging the credit to increase revenue potential, they were buying worthless bullshit or kiting other credit.

Now we have a bunch of worthless bullshit and no revenue potential.

I wish the spendulus package had a few bucks in it to teach unemployed people new skills, and require that anyone receiving assistance attend and pass a mandatory credit and investment class. The biggest problem I see with this country is that a majority of Americans are lazy, and are financial idiots.
Of course they weren't. And its a disaster. All I was saying is that living like some sort of penny pinching hermit at the other end of the spectrum is not going to do anything for you either.

By the way, the video was great and I think the guy is absolutely correct. I was disappointed that he didn't point out that the rate of change in personal savings is what has caused the biggest problems. If we could have slowed this change to a few years time we would have been much better off.
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post #17 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 09:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Paladin View Post
This is really affecting the 40K millionaires out there for sure. I have no sympathy for the people buying more home, more car, and nore "stuff" than they can afford.

BTW, 40K millionaire is a term I heard recently to describe the people who only make 40K a year but live like they are millionaires with leased BMW's, Navigators, Mercedes, etc.
Oh yes most of dfwstangs! lol

All I hear is bla bla bla......
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post #18 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 09:14 AM
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Originally Posted by 46Tbird View Post
That's true, but a big problem is that people weren't leveraging the credit to increase revenue potential, they were buying worthless bullshit or kiting other credit.

Now we have a bunch of worthless bullshit and no revenue potential.

I wish the spendulus package had a few bucks in it to teach unemployed people new skills, and require that anyone receiving assistance attend and pass a mandatory credit and investment class. The biggest problem I see with this country is that a majority of Americans are lazy, and are financial idiots.
On top of that, they scrubbed the welfare reform - so now people can become baby factories again and get PAID! Damn Miss Delores Tucker....

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #19 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 09:15 AM
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Oh yes most of dfwstangs! lol
I thought about this the other day. I turned down a job that was a huge pay cut for me, but we be a huge raise for a bunch. It left me perplexed.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #20 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 12:18 PM
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I feel like my grandparents are posting. The flip side of all this "I told you so" bullshit is that without risk there is no reward.
Don't be so quick to diss your grandparents, no one EVER became prosperous by continually spending more than they earned. At the business level, you're correct about risk & reward. Although, as we've seen even the big boys of mortgage finance let thier greed overcome thier business savy, and thus we are ....were we are.

But at the consumer level spending more than you earn is an express ticket to bankrpucy.
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post #21 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 12:43 PM
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Don't be so quick to diss your grandparents, no one EVER became prosperous by continually spending more than they earned.
Not true at all, talk to someone who has started a business and put their expenses on credit cards for the first couple of years. It happens all the time and some of them are successful. The difference is when they are successful people can look back and say "that was smart" and on the other hand, if they fail, someone can look back and say "that was stupid and they lived beyond their means". That's the gift of hindsight.

Fact is that looking down on someone for their spending habits is nonsense. As an outsider you don't know where their money comes from, you don't know where it is going either. It's just a bullshit attempt at some sort of bizzare economic elitism to try to make a person feel better about their own spending habits.
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post #22 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 12:48 PM
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I know I'm going to sound like a socialist, but what is the point of preserving a system that protects capital above the people that need it? I'm not talking about fiat money, I'm talking about the actual wealth. Why preserve and concentrate wealth at the expense of the population you derive it from? It doesn't really exist, it's just a social contract. Why not let the dollar fail? Why not let the banks fail? Won't those able to fend for themselves be ok? Won't the honorable among us help those in need? Aren't we just being divided amongst ourselves over fiat currency?
Capitalism drives innovation and production. Go to a grocery store in a communist country and you will see why. Why produce anything? There is no incentive. Its one of the classic failures of communism, IE people are lazy fucks.

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post #23 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 01:49 PM
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Capitalism drives innovation and production. Go to a grocery store in a communist country and you will see why. Why produce anything? There is no incentive. Its one of the classic failures of communism, IE people are lazy fucks.
I know. I was just overreacting, my bad. I think I was trying to point out that the people at the top seem to be killing the golden goose.

Give me a dollar.
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post #24 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 02:27 PM
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Not true at all, talk to someone who has started a business and put their expenses on credit cards for the first couple of years. It happens all the time and some of them are successful. The difference is when they are successful people can look back and say "that was smart" and on the other hand, if they fail, someone can look back and say "that was stupid and they lived beyond their means". That's the gift of hindsight.

Fact is that looking down on someone for their spending habits is nonsense. As an outsider you don't know where their money comes from, you don't know where it is going either. It's just a bullshit attempt at some sort of bizzare economic elitism to try to make a person feel better about their own spending habits.
Quote my entire statement, I made comments about business finance. But successfully financing a business with credit cards is the exception, not the rule. A decently thought out business plan doesn't usually include 29% financing.

Most of my statements were aimed at people who work for someone....like you. But please, let us know how spending 110% of your income works out for you!
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post #25 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 05:41 PM
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Most of my statements were aimed at people who work for someone....like you. But please, let us know how spending 110% of your income works out for you!

Lol. Silly rabbit, AlP owns 98% of this board in terms of understanding the dollar. Figured you would know this...
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post #26 of 26 (permalink) Old 02-18-2009, 09:12 PM
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Lol. Silly rabbit, AlP owns 98% of this board in terms of understanding the dollar. Figured you would know this...

AL P thinks he knows everything....but he doesn't.
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