No Cerveza... No Trabajo
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Where's my beer?
Jesus Christ. I post here there is controversy, I don't post here there is controversy! Someone e-mailed me saying I had to get a chuckle on this thread.
TBird, mikeb... I was at Lake Lavon that day running the Trinity Trail but it wasn't me with my grandkid. Also, hopefully, I don't have any grand kids that I don't know about.
mustangman200... are you shitting me? This is a fucking internet forum. I'm not embarrased to post. I have shit to do. As far as the voter fraud issue. I did what I could. I can't make the Texas AG jump hoops nor did I ever claim to have. I called some people I know in the office and that is all I can do.
mustangguy289... show me where I contradicted myself regarding oil. I said the price of oil has been tied inversely to the dollar for the past few years. That's a fact. Oil up, dollar down and vice versa. Now we are in a situation where this relationship is going to the wayside because of the lack of demand due to the US economy.Two different things moron. DRYS was a big disappointment to me but I purchased it all the way down to $4. I currently own 5,000 shares averaged in at 8.50/share. I'm doing ok with it. It is still only a portion of my total risk capital. I haven't had 10% of my risk capital in the market since the past summer.
As a trader and not investor I hope to be right 60% of the time. That is all that is required to produce a very good income stream.
Since everyone is curious of my past two months:
1. I helped my younger brother out for a couple of weeks in December tend to his son (my nephew) who is going through cancer, operations and chemo.
2. My daughter started his national premier volleyball season. We've been to two out of state tournaments thus far (OKC and Baltimore). Add this to my youngest starting up her select soccer season and we have practice/games/tournaments just about every day of the week now.
3. My company is in a critical stage at the moment and requires a lot of my time. I've been on trips to 8 cities including Mexico in the past month. Next year will be our first "down year" in 20 years. I don't like it and I'll do what I can to keep the "up year" streak going but it will be very difficult. MustangMan2000, I'll be more than glad to post my last three profit sharing checks so you can see I don't bullshit. While they aren't quite what they were in 2007 (economy) they will show amounts that you don't make unless you own the company or a significant piece of it.
All in all, we want to see if we can still save 09 which will be difficult since most of our 09 contracts have been signed. We'll need new business or grow incremental sales from the existing 150 customers.
4. While helping out my brother in Houston with my nephew I met an awesome family who has been going through cancer with their 8 year old for the past 4 years. Instead of crying about it they decided to start a foundation in his name and raise money for pediatric cancer. I got to know them fairly well and decided to help out this year. I got a 48 hour race planned for November 2009 which I hope to raise money and awareness for their cause. As the race gets closer I'll be sure to PM you MustangMan200 and MustangGuy289... I'm sure you'll each want to donate at least 1K a piece.
5. My gift to my family at Christmas was a week to Cancun in between Christmas and New Years. We enjoyed it, thanks. I didn't take my laptop this time. First time ever.
mustangguy, again please show me where I contradicted myself. In fact, in regards to oil, I won the bet on the site. I also called gold's rise in the early part of the year while most people told me I was full of shit.
As far as going forward...
Short gold... the commodity index funds are rebalancing and it appears there will be close to a billion on the market for sale. Because of the drop in oil over the past 6 months the funds will be buying oil. Possibly as much as a half a billion.
Yen ETFs look ripe for a move up.
Keep holding DRYS if you have it. I will continue to buy any dip below my 8.50 average but I also expect to hold this stock for at least 5 years.
As far as equities in general there is a technical bias towards the upside from an extremely oversold condition. In the application I use there are currently 160 stocks registering buy signals from a techincal perspective. Huge improvement over the past month.
Unfortunately we are looking at earnings forecast $42.26 for the S&P 500 (averaged over all analysts) which puts the PE at 21.5 at the moment. Way above historial averages. I'd like to see it around 15. At a PE of 15 that puts the S&P at 630.
So the market is at odds with itself. Technically it is an upside bias but fundementally it is a downside bias. We're in a trading no mans land. Short term trades with the technicals and I'm 100% cash on my long term retirement accounts.
Thanks for caring so much MustangMan2000, I feel honored.
My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)