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post #1 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-27-2008, 08:45 PM Thread Starter
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Anyone want to make a bet...

It's no secret if you listen to the Evening News that we are headed towards the hardest times this country has seen since the 1930s. Everytime I turn on the news I hear a talking head comparing our current economic conditon to the Great Depression and how we haven't seen things this bad since then. My bet is who here thinks Christmas sales for 2008 will be lower than 2007. I'm betting that 2008 Christmas sales will be higher. I've done alot of research on this matter and I will tell you how I came to my conclusion. The line of people standing outside of best buy waiting for them to open is longer than the line of homeless people standing in line for their thanksgiving dinner.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

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post #2 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-27-2008, 08:48 PM
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My wife is planning her shopping day as I type. She's leaving the house at 3 am. We are lucky enough to still have our jobs right now. I do feel sorry for the people who have lost jobs recently. I know a few who have, and it will be a tough Christmas for them.
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post #3 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-27-2008, 09:08 PM
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I've been noticing a lot of residential housing getting started lately. It has been my experience that real estate leads the way out of a recession. We'll see.
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post #4 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-27-2008, 09:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeb
I've been noticing a lot of residential housing getting started lately. It has been my experience that real estate leads the way out of a recession. We'll see.

that's builders using the draw to pay the rest of their debts...........normal deal.

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post #5 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-27-2008, 09:30 PM
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People can not refinance their houses to pay off their debt. The piggy bank is empty this year. It will be a poor shopping season this year. I say, look for fire sales in the second week of December.
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post #6 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-27-2008, 09:34 PM
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I don't take bets with too much uncertainty.

However, there is something you are not accounting for. You live in Texas, not Michigan, California, New York, or the rest of the country for that matter. Texas' economy is faring better than any other part of the country. Real Estate values never got over inflated. We have been spared the bulk of the sub-prime mess. We have the oil industries profits to bolster us. There are many many reasons the Texas economy is doing pretty well in this mess.

Frankly, I don't think this country has seen the worse of it. When other nations decide to stop financing our national debt, things will really start to get bad.

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post #7 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-27-2008, 09:55 PM
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I agree i think being in this part of the country we arent seeing the effects of the economy. Other parts of the country are having alot more trouble than we are. Everywhere companies are downsizing cutting people loose etc. My company was bought by a larger company just a few weeks ago. Sales are down large companies are on the brink of bankruptcy all over the country. IMO it wont be a good friday for retailers. Sales dont go up with a rise in unemployment.

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post #8 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-27-2008, 10:11 PM
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lol.

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post #9 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-28-2008, 09:56 AM
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This is as sure of a bet as 6 months ago Freighttrain said (i'm sure he heard this from his union rep) we were at the bottom and could only go up.
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post #10 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-28-2008, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grape
that's builders using the draw to pay the rest of their debts...........normal deal.
That's pretty perceptive...and right. I am not starting anything right now. Of course, I'm small, and will NOT over-extend myself by stacking up specs. It will catch up eventually.

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post #11 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-28-2008, 11:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vertnut
That's pretty perceptive...and right. I am not starting anything right now. Of course, I'm small, and will NOT over-extend myself by stacking up specs. It will catch up eventually.

it never pertains to small volume custom builders, but the shit that gets traded on the NYSE...........different story. Even some of my parents customers are sitting on specs that have had their second birthday, and not cheap tax specs either.

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post #12 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-28-2008, 11:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sgt Beavis
I don't take bets with too much uncertainty.

However, there is something you are not accounting for. You live in Texas, not Michigan, California, New York, or the rest of the country for that matter. Texas' economy is faring better than any other part of the country. Real Estate values never got over inflated. We have been spared the bulk of the sub-prime mess. We have the oil industries profits to bolster us. There are many many reasons the Texas economy is doing pretty well in this mess.

Frankly, I don't think this country has seen the worse of it. When other nations decide to stop financing our national debt, things will really start to get bad.
That's a great point. I think TX had 3 out of 10 major cities that could expect at least the residencial market to maintain it's value.
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post #13 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-28-2008, 01:20 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sgt Beavis
I don't take bets with too much uncertainty.

However, there is something you are not accounting for. You live in Texas, not Michigan, California, New York, or the rest of the country for that matter. Texas' economy is faring better than any other part of the country. Real Estate values never got over inflated. We have been spared the bulk of the sub-prime mess. We have the oil industries profits to bolster us. There are many many reasons the Texas economy is doing pretty well in this mess.

Frankly, I don't think this country has seen the worse of it. When other nations decide to stop financing our national debt, things will really start to get bad.

They have been keeping Christmas sales records since 1953 and there has never been a year over year sales decline.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

Don't cupple up without protection.
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post #14 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-28-2008, 01:28 PM
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Heck, I think there'll be more on sale this year just because of the threat of the "worst economy evah".

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post #15 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-28-2008, 07:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreightTrain
They have been keeping Christmas sales records since 1953 and there has never been a year over year sales decline.
The Great Depression was before 1953.

Even internet sales are off this year.

I'm hoping for the best but I'm expecting the worse. Frankly I think people need to be saving or paying off debt, not spending.

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post #16 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 03:00 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sgt Beavis
The Great Depression was before 1953.

Even internet sales are off this year.

I'm hoping for the best but I'm expecting the worse. Frankly I think people need to be saving or paying off debt, not spending.

Black Friday sales were up 3% from last year. Not to shaby for being in the middle of a recession.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459226,00.html

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

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post #17 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-30-2008, 11:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreightTrain
It's no secret if you listen to the Evening News that we are headed towards the hardest times this country has seen since the 1930s. Everytime I turn on the news I hear a talking head comparing our current economic conditon to the Great Depression and how we haven't seen things this bad since then. My bet is who here thinks Christmas sales for 2008 will be lower than 2007. I'm betting that 2008 Christmas sales will be higher. I've done alot of research on this matter and I will tell you how I came to my conclusion. The line of people standing outside of best buy waiting for them to open is longer than the line of homeless people standing in line for their thanksgiving dinner.


Bah! Humbug....

I bet you a hundred dollar bill that the nation will see a decerase in Christmas sales this year.

My luck is that any time I bet a c-note, I lose, so I sure hope I'm wrong and the country keeps up the spirit!!!

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post #18 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2008, 02:04 AM
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To be fair, FreightTrain, what you're seeing is an increase in ordered merchandise on the job, not an increase in personal consumption. Using this as a barometer can be helpful, but it is supply-side economics if it's taken as the whole picture. You may have called it, though: published rough estimates of Black Friday sales put us at a 7.2% increase over last year's Black Friday. I seem to recall last year's being somewhat lackluster, in comparison. That being said, even if there hasn't been a year-to-year decline, there will be. It WILL happen, even if it's not this year. All things must pass.

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post #19 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2008, 05:24 AM
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This increase just doesn't make sense, the dallasnews & different news shows were all telling different stories at times. One time I was watching and they were talking about more people only shopping for single items and doing more internet shopping which led to lower sales. Next minute they said sells were up 3% then another one showed up 7%....just seems fishy. Like the news is just trying to make it sound better than it really was not to worry people about the economy. I was out at 5am and the places I went were not like a year ago and before then

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post #20 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2008, 09:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreightTrain
Black Friday sales were up 3% from last year. Not to shaby for being in the middle of a recession.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459226,00.html
stock market is still tanking today in spite of the good sales on friday.
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post #21 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2008, 03:49 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeb
stock market is still tanking today in spite of the good sales on friday.
That was because they finally came out and said what everyone else knew for the last two months. That we are in a recession.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

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post #22 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2008, 03:54 PM
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I will be holding out till the second week of december to do my chistmas shoping... I think there will be great deals.... I do feel bad for the people who have lost there jobs this year due to the bad economy... Im lucky so far. Im in car sales and this past month was the worst of all. Thank god for savings. It should pick up though... IMO

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post #23 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2008, 03:59 PM
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ouch -7% on the dow somebody had a bad day unless you bet short

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post #24 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2008, 04:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreightTrain
Black Friday sales were up 3% from last year. Not to shaby for being in the middle of a recession.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,459226,00.html
The problem with the story is they are using shills paid for by the National Retail Federation whose numbers are highly unreliable.

I'll wait for Mastercard's ShoppersPlus data on Thursday.

You also have to remember that retail sales were down 4% for the four weeks leading into November 28th (from 2007). About 10 billion worth.

People may have also been looking for the Friday deep discounted sales to do the majority of their Christmas shopping.

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post #25 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2008, 04:15 PM
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You know what drives me crazy? Every newscast has to put a spin on any good economic news. After black Friday they sounded sad that there had been an increase in sales over last year, but just had to caution that retailers couldn't be absolutely certain until the end of the season and things could still go ...terribly bad.

My point is this: The primary media outlets spin things whatever way they want to and the country takes it as gospel. Everything's terrible, the sky is falling, we're all gonna die.

Not to beat a dead horse, but the election video somebody posted a couple of weeks ago where Obama voters were polled is an excellent example. The Obama suporters only knew the things the media had blown up into a big deal (GOP spending 150k on Palin family clothing) and knew very little about actual issues (None knew that Obama won his first primary election by having his own party members kicked off the ballot) etc.

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post #26 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-03-2008, 11:38 AM
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Hey Fuckstick...you are wrong again!

Holiday sales: Outlook gets bleaker
Despite strong Black Friday sales, analysts say overall November results - and the holiday season - will be dismal.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/03/news...ion=2008120313
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post #27 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-03-2008, 04:20 PM Thread Starter
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Hey Fuckstick...you are wrong again!

Holiday sales: Outlook gets bleaker
Despite strong Black Friday sales, analysts say overall November results - and the holiday season - will be dismal.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/03/news...ion=2008120313

Last time I checked Holiday Sales run all the way through Christmas.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

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post #28 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-03-2008, 04:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreightTrain
Last time I checked Holiday Sales run all the way through Christmas.
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/busin...cast.html?_r=1

http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/03/ret...rtner=yahootix

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081203/busin...ault.html?.v=2

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post #29 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-03-2008, 04:37 PM Thread Starter
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Looks like Cyber Monday sales were up 15% from last year. So lets recap, BlackFriday and Cyber Monday sales are up, but the experts claim that overall Christmas sales will be way down even though two of the biggest shopping days of the seaon posted gains. Why do I have a hard time believing all the experts.

http://tech.yahoo.com/news/pcworld/2...ncybermonday_1

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

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post #30 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-03-2008, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreightTrain
Looks like Cyber Monday sales were up 15% from last year. So lets recap, BlackFriday and Cyber Monday sales are up, but the experts claim that overall Christmas sales will be way down even though two of the biggest shopping days of the seaon posted gains. Why do I have a hard time believing all the experts.

http://tech.yahoo.com/news/pcworld/2...ncybermonday_1
Holiday retail sales run from November 1st until December 31st.

Even with "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" both segments are below 2007 levels.

Black Friday is called Black Friday because this is the day the majority of retailers are "in the black" for the year. It hasn't happened.

You have a hard time believing the experts because you have no fucking clue how holiday sales are measured. Stick to running a fucking train.

From the article YOU posted:

Quote:
Between Nov. 1 and Dec. 1 -- the first 31 days of the holiday shopping season -- U.S. residents spent $12.03 billion in online retail sales, a drop of 2 percent compared with the corresponding period last year, according to comScore.

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post #31 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-03-2008, 04:43 PM
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post #32 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-03-2008, 04:54 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Holiday retail sales run from November 1st until December 31st.

Even with "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" both segments are below 2007 levels.

Black Friday is called Black Friday because this is the day the majority of retailers are "in the black" for the year. It hasn't happened.

You have a hard time believing the experts because you have no fucking clue how holiday sales are measured. Stick to running a fucking train.

From the article YOU posted:

Well lets think about comparing last year to this year before you go off the deep end. First off last year Thanksgiving fell on Nov 22 vs Nov 27 this year. So that means the Holiday sales season started 5 days sooner than this year. Also last Nov had 3 pay periods vs only 2 pay periods this year. So technically not only did the American consumer have less time to spend money they also had less money to spend and this isn't even taking the economy into consideration. That being said, the American Consumer still beat last year's sales numbers on BlackFriday and Cyber Monday, but the experts still claim overall sales will be down. It's the same shit every year. The doom and gloom experts claim Christmas sales will be lower and every year they go up. I don't know about yall, but I'm doing my part to help the economy. I'm spending at least 1k more this year than I did last year.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

Don't cupple up without protection.

Last edited by FreightTrain; 12-03-2008 at 05:31 PM.
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