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post #1 of 6 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 11:32 AM Thread Starter
 
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Analysis

I would like to reject a few myths and maybe add some info while I am at it about this election.


Myth #1 - This election represents a profound change in the electorate.
This election does show a landslide in the electoral college and changes the political thinking on how to win the Presidency. But moving away from the electoral college and looking at actual vote totals and precentages shows something different. Small changes in key areas coupled with dissatisfaction with Bush (in general), Republican anti-immigration stance (with latinos), and lower white turnout than 2004.

Myth #2 - Huge numbers of new voters will mean a big increase in turnout.
That does not appear to be the case. Currently about 120,000,000 votes have been counted with some still outstanding. In 2004 final count of votes was about 122,000,000. When it is all said and done this years totals will be pretty close to 2004.

Myth #3 - The black vote won it for Obama.
Maybe not as much as you think. In 2000 90% of blacks voted for Gore. In 2004 88% of blacks voted for Kerry. This year 95% voted for Obama. Assuming that 89% of blacks always vote democrat, Obama gained 950,000 votes by being black. (or 0.8% of the total votes cast)

Myth #4 - The Black turnout won it for him
This helped him but lower white turnout hurt McCain. Black turnout increased to 13% of the voters from 11% in 2004. White turnout lowered to 74% from 77% in 2008. (The 'other race' section increased by 1%) Since the total number of voters remained pretty flat this can only be explained these numbers. Blacks voters +2.4 million, White voters -3.0 to 3.5 million. Add to that the shift in Latino voters from 2004 to 2008. The numbers of latinos voting remained pretty much the same from 2004 to 2008. But about 2.0 million latino voters shifted from Bush to Obama.

Myth #5 - Barack can do whatever he wants
while this may be true in one sense. You have to admit he is a good politician. And good politicians care about one thing... the next election. He and his team have enough smarts to know if they act like they have carte-blanche they'll be smacked down in two years. Pelosi and her like may not know this but Obama would be smart to set her straight.

Okay - So who thinks I am off base? Lets hear your take.

(PS- I was lazy on the math and rounded a lot to keep it easy for me)
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post #2 of 6 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 11:34 AM
Lifer
 
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41% of white voters voted for Barry.

CHL holder and Conservative...AKA "Domestic Terrorist"
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post #3 of 6 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 11:37 AM Thread Starter
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vertnut
41% of white voters voted for Barry.
The 2 polls I looked at showed ~41% of white men and ~46% of white women.
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post #4 of 6 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 11:39 AM
AHMO!
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1fastdem
The 2 polls I looked at showed ~41% of white men and ~46% of white women.
Well if you couldn't tell from being around us last night...women don't count as voters to us.
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post #5 of 6 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 11:41 AM
Lifer
 
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Would myth 3 be true if you added hispanics?
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post #6 of 6 (permalink) Old 11-05-2008, 11:48 AM
 
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Myth: You know what you are talking about.
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