UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.
Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.
"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.
"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."
The three-day rolling tracking poll included 1,203 likely voters -- about 400 interviews per 24-hour polling period (each polling period begins and ends at 5 p.m. Eastern daily) -- and was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. When references are made in this news release to specific days, such as "today's polling" or "Friday's single-day polling," that refers to that day and the previous evening after 5 p.m. Interviews were conducted using live telephone interviewers in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York.
How Our Daily Tracking Poll Works
This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses of likely voters that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey sample is removed, so the poll "tracks" changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting www.zogby.com
Survey Methodology [Reuters/CSPAN Zogby National Tracking Likely Voters] 10/29/08 thru 11/1/08
Zogby International was commissioned by [Reuters and C-Span] to conduct a telephone survey of [likely voters].
The sample is [1203 likely voters] interviews with approximately  questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cdís of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPORís approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies. Weighting by [region, party, age, race, religion, gender] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.