McCain is gaining, Obama is losing his lead - within margin of error per Zogby - DFWstangs Forums
 
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post #1 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 12:44 PM Thread Starter
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McCain is gaining, Obama is losing his lead - within margin of error per Zogby

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm
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post #2 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 12:55 PM
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We knew it would happen as the undecided started to make their picks. I just hope it wasn't too late.

The most accurate pollster from 2004 was TIPP you can see their stuff at :

http://www.tipponline.com

They update daily around 3pm or so our time.

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post #3 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 01:11 PM
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There was one day (Friday?) where Zogby had McCain with a 48-47 lead. If it's really that close, McCain may well have a chance.

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post #4 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 01:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vertnut
There was one day (Friday?) where Zogby had McCain with a 48-47 lead. If it's really that close, McCain may well have a chance.
They do two different types of reporting. The one day and the three day rolling average.

If McCain scores well again tomorrow it will wipe out Obama's lead on the 3-day which to Zogby is the most important.

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post #5 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 01:22 PM
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Could McCain even win with Barack with so many electoral votes? I sure hope Obama doesn't win but it does not look good.

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post #6 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
They do two different types of reporting. The one day and the three day rolling average.

If McCain scores well again tomorrow it will wipe out Obama's lead on the 3-day which to Zogby is the most important.
Ah. Ok! Some of these damn polls are too erratic to judge anything by. I've followed Rasmussin, Zogby, and the AP...the rest I shit-can...

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post #7 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw2stang
Could McCain even win with Barack with so many electoral votes? I sure hope Obama doesn't win but it does not look good.
"Electoral votes" are what matters, but few of the polls are accurate. If the polls are off, then so is the electoral count.

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post #8 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 01:52 PM
 
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Dang! I'm scared, now. Every poll that's not Zogby has him 8 points up. I guess Obama's gonna lose.
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post #9 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 01:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpamp
Dang! I'm scared, now. Every poll that's not Zogby has him 8 points up. I guess Obama's gonna lose.
And TIPP, didn't read the thread did ya?
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post #10 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 02:18 PM
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Contrary to what the mainstream media would like you to think, this election isnt over by a long shot... Its easy to answer the phone and vote for someone, its a whole other to go stand in line and put up with the hassles of actually voting...

You know damn well there will be long lines and lots of people... I'm hoping for rain and snow all over the country too... give the lazy asses another reason to stay home...
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post #11 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 02:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpamp
Dang! I'm scared, now. Every poll that's not Zogby has him 8 points up. I guess Obama's gonna lose.
Kerry led Bush at several points within a month before the 2004 elections. Gore won the popular vote in 2000, but only carried 20 states.

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it was not a problem to bring money to his house at 10pm.so why is it a problem to call and bitch.it wasnt a problem when we were all sitting around smoking pot together.yes i said it we all were smoking pot together.what now stupid.
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post #12 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Mustangman_2000
Kerry led Bush at several points within a month before the 2004 elections. Gore won the popular vote in 2000, but only carried 20 states.
Even better, exit polls had a Kerry win! Other than Zogby and 1 or 2 others, the polling is skewed, admittedly so, by the sources. The L.A.Times poll was a +8 for Barry, but out of the 850 they polled, 500 were democrats.

The goal of most of the left-leaning pollsters, is to discourage McCain supporters from voting, by making you think it's all over. Even Barry's dumbass insiders feel like they need a 10 point lead going into Tuesday.

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post #13 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 03:26 PM
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yahoo has obama leading the electoral votes by a landslide

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

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post #14 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 04:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by black50
yahoo has obama leading the electoral votes by a landslide

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard
florida and pennsylvania are still up in the air. they are not a done deal for obama.

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it was not a problem to bring money to his house at 10pm.so why is it a problem to call and bitch.it wasnt a problem when we were all sitting around smoking pot together.yes i said it we all were smoking pot together.what now stupid.
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post #15 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Mustangman_2000
florida and pennsylvania are still up in the air. they are not a done deal for obama.
I had heard that McCain had a lead in Florida.

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post #16 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 04:37 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vertnut
I had heard that McCain had a lead in Florida.
he does, but it's not by such a margin to not be of concern.
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post #17 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 05:30 PM
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How do these polls work? Do they sample a certain amount of people? Or are they looking into the early voting counts?
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post #18 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 06:35 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mustangguy289
How do these polls work? Do they sample a certain amount of people? Or are they looking into the early voting counts?
its usually polls, phonecalls of undecided/left/right voters combined with previous voting habits.
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post #19 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 06:40 PM
 
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they reach the jobless people @ home between 8-5 M-F ...
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post #20 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 06:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Saladbar
they reach the jobless people @ home between 8-5 M-F ...
good point. No wonder the polls are always wrong, only housewives and people that suck the gov. teet are home.

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post #21 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Saladbar
they reach the jobless people @ home between 8-5 M-F ...
ding ding ding we have a winner .......
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post #22 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 11:51 PM
 
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Zogby just released his new poll and Obama is up by 5.7% which goes to show you that you can't trust the polls, especially Zogby. Just read on as he discredit's his own polling data

http://www.zogby.com/main.htm

Quote:
UTICA, New York -- After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

The three-day rolling tracking poll included 1,203 likely voters -- about 400 interviews per 24-hour polling period (each polling period begins and ends at 5 p.m. Eastern daily) -- and was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. When references are made in this news release to specific days, such as "today's polling" or "Friday's single-day polling," that refers to that day and the previous evening after 5 p.m. Interviews were conducted using live telephone interviewers in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York.

How Our Daily Tracking Poll Works

This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses of likely voters that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey sample is removed, so the poll "tracks" changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.

Survey Methodology [Reuters/CSPAN Zogby National Tracking Likely Voters] 10/29/08 thru 11/1/08

Zogby International was commissioned by [Reuters and C-Span] to conduct a telephone survey of [likely voters].

The sample is [1203 likely voters] interviews with approximately [25] questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn from telephone cdís of national listed sample. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPORís approved methodologies[1] and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.[2] Weighting by [region, party, age, race, religion, gender] is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
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post #23 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-01-2008, 11:57 PM
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Don't underestimate the Bradley effect.
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post #24 of 24 (permalink) Old 11-02-2008, 06:04 AM
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Don't underestimate the Bradley effect.

That's racist!
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