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post #1 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 08:46 AM Thread Starter
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01WC - Oil under 120

I beileve it was you that said we'd see $110 oil before $150...It got to 147 at it's highest and right now is under $120 a barrel at $119.60 down $1.81.

Oh please tell us what is next as you are pretty good at this knowing what probably will happen to markets and oil prices in the future.
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post #2 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 08:55 AM
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post #3 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:02 AM
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We could see fireworks at any minute. I sure hope it is today.
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post #4 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:04 AM
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Originally Posted by AL P
We could see fireworks at any minute. I sure hope it is today.
i want to see one of those -$20 days!
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post #5 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:08 AM
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I'm really in a quandry as to what we need here. If oil drops dramatically right now, will it take pressure off of congress and Nancy Cuntlosi to come up with an energy/drilling policy? Are McCains odds better with oil/gas dropping right now, with his "drill now, drill here" policy? I'm just wondering about the "greater good" here...

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post #6 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vertnut
I'm really in a quandry as to what we need here. If oil drops dramatically right now, will it take pressure off of congress and Nancy Cuntlosi to come up with an energy/drilling policy? Are McCains odds better with oil/gas dropping right now, with his "drill now, drill here" policy? I'm just wondering about the "greater good" here...
hopefully they see this as a warning that it can damn sure happen again, even if oil drops down to a reasonable price. if they go ahead and put measures in place, at least we have some insullation from this in the future.
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post #7 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:12 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by AL P
We could see fireworks at any minute. I sure hope it is today.
What kind of fireworks do you forsee and what effect on oil/market?
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post #8 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:15 AM
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Originally Posted by NaSSty Nate
What kind of fireworks do you forsee and what effect on oil/market?
he's talking about a huge amount of money (hedge funds) being pulled out of oil futures and put elsewhere because of the drop...or possibly moving to short oil, which would be even better.
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post #9 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:20 AM Thread Starter
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he's talking about a huge amount of money (hedge funds) being pulled out of oil futures and put elsewhere because of the drop...or possibly moving to short oil, which would be even better.
I figured as much, I've seen him post several times he's ready for the explosion.
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post #10 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:23 AM
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I figured as much, I've seen him post several times he's ready for the explosion.
We are all ready for the explosion..but wouldn't it be an implosion though?




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post #11 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vertnut
I'm really in a quandry as to what we need here. If oil drops dramatically right now, will it take pressure off of congress and Nancy Cuntlosi to come up with an energy/drilling policy? Are McCains odds better with oil/gas dropping right now, with his "drill now, drill here" policy? I'm just wondering about the "greater good" here...
I think the greater good would be served by occasionally thinking about something other than a perpetual campaign process. I keep saying that if a leader would just do his damned job he/she wouldn't have to campaign for 8 years. That's why Dubya's tone always sounds like he's explaining to Pops that "it's not really my fault the family car got wrecked when I borrowed it." Lying and explaining, yet apologetic.

Talk is cheap because supply exceeds demand!
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post #12 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 09:45 AM
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I think the greater good would be served by occasionally thinking about something other than a perpetual campaign process. I keep saying that if a leader would just do his damned job he/she wouldn't have to campaign for 8 years. That's why Dubya's tone always sounds like he's explaining to Pops that "it's not really his fault the family car got wrecked when he borrowed it." Lying and explaining, yet apologetic.
This had nothing to do with Dubya right now.. I AM thinking about the greater good for our energy policy of the future. If oil drops enough to take the focus off of energy costs', the American people are so damn fickle, it will be on the back-burner in a few short months. It will only raise its' ugly head after a very important election, which may mean we go through another term or two of Pelosi's antics involving energy issues. Unfortunately, we need to be on our guard every day from getting screwed by politicians...and I mean ANY party when I say "politicians". I'm pretty sick of all of them right now...
I hope you can think a little more clearly when Dubya's not around for you to blame. I didn't care for Clinton and his antics, but I never had a hatred for him like some do for Bush. How can you harbor so much hate for someone you don't even know? Most of the hate stems from something the press has released, and that's proving to be a VERY unreliable political source. Hell, I didn't hate Jimmy Carter, and he had this country on it's KNEE'S! In fact, you hardly ever (if at all) speak of Jimmy Carter. To democrats, he's kind of like that illegitimate child a shameful mom never speaks of?

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post #13 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 10:23 AM
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LOL. Just some chart readings and experience. Some people read crystal balls I read charts.

I think 115-117 is still the magic range. I think the bulls capitulate at this range and the shorts take over for awhile possibly pushing it down $100.

I think there is about a 70% chance we see $100 before we see $150. This is up from 65% a few weeks ago. So, there is still a chance we'll see $150 before $100 but I believe we'll see $100 in the third quarter of 2008.

Do you see how the markets reacted to Eduardo? The bulls try to move the price up in the morning and got bitchslapped by the end of the session.

My biggest joy is the bitch slap the bulls got on natural gas. It's down 34% from its peak in June and trading around where it was last November or so. I was talking to someone at a retail provider of electric that was telling me they were hedging 50% of their natural gas (when it was at its peak of 13.50/mmbtu) because it was just going to keep going up. I told him they were crazy and were going to be eating alot of natural gas (the best was it would see 10.00/mmbtu before 15.00/mmbtu). Got a case of beer out of the deal.

The bigger dilemma facing the US is our consumers. I believe we, as a population, are about to disappoint our fans across the world by spending less, borrowing less and saving more. If we return to half the savings rate of 1992... we'll take 346 billion out of our typical consumption (Wal-Mart sales for last year were around that figure!)

Not saying that is a bad thing. Saving more and borrowing less is ultimately a good deal. But the world isn't going to know how to react! It does setup a possible turn around for financials although I still wouldn't bet on financials at the moment since I think the second wave of defaults on mortgages (the alt-a's and prime's) are about to occur.

Interesting times in the US.

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post #14 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 10:25 AM Thread Starter
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Always a pleasure to read those posts.
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post #15 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 10:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vertnut
I hope you can think a little more clearly when Dubya's not around for you to blame. I didn't care for Clinton and his antics, but I never had a hatred for him like some do for Bush. How can you harbor so much hate for someone you don't even know? Most of the hate stems from something the press has released, and that's proving to be a VERY unreliable political source. Hell, I didn't hate Jimmy Carter, and he had this country on it's KNEE'S! In fact, you hardly ever (if at all) speak of Jimmy Carter. To democrats, he's kind of like that illegitimate child a shameful mom never speaks of?
Bush and his administration have been corporate puppets and there's no way around it. I don't need the press to tell me who to admire and respect. As you're well aware the press crucified the only candidate that I'll even take seriously.
I don't need to be personal friends with a president to hava an up or down opinion of him. Bush (actually Cheney) sold us out. Plain and simple. I'm not gonna argue that fact and I'm not gonna dig up pages of proof. If you can't see it by now it wouldn't matter anyway. It's not a matter of hatred of Bush et al. It's a matter of love and concern for my country. It's the only one we've got.
No, I don't jump on the bash Pres. Carter bandwagon, and I think his alternate energy policies would come in real handy about now. His goal with research funding in '75 was to not be dependent on forign oil within 10 years. It's pretty safe to assume who killed those programs. The funds instead went to develop the B1-B bomber. What a buttshow. I'm not full of hatred. I'm just a grump when it comes to self serving and greedy opportunist type "leaders". And I use that term very loosely. We do agree on one thing...fuck the current "leaders" and their horses too.

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post #16 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 10:48 AM
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I think there is about a 70% chance we see $100 before we see $150.
Time to have some fun with this...

70% seems like fairly good odds that it might hit. Anyone care to place a friendly little paypal wager? I say $100 isn't happening before $150. I'm thinking it'll head up after mid teens, but definately not $100.
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post #17 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Denny
Time to have some fun with this...

70% seems like fairly good odds that it might hit. Anyone care to place a friendly little paypal wager? I say $100 isn't happening before $150. I'm thinking it'll head up after mid teens, but definately not $100.
How much?

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post #18 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 10:56 AM
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How much?
Well, we are talking $100 barrels here, right?
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post #19 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 10:59 AM
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Well, we are talking $100 barrels here, right?
$100 before $150.

If neither target is hit prior to 12/31/08 we'll take the closet to the pin. For example, if oil is trading at 126 on 12/31 you win. If it is trading at 124 on 12/31 I win.

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post #20 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:02 AM
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$100 before $150.

If neither target is hit prior to 12/31/08 we'll take the closet to the pin. For example, if oil is trading at 126 on 12/31 you win. If it is trading at 124 on 12/31 I win.
That'll work. I want to test this alternative "insider" information anyway.

One hundred US dollars via paypal.
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post #21 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:03 AM
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That'll work. I want to test this alternative "insider" information anyway.

One hundred US dollars via paypal.
You want my odds as well? Or straight up bet?

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post #22 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:07 AM
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You want my odds as well? Or straight up bet?
Just first one to target price or closest at final bell, December 31 (or 30 if closed). No need to have anything else.
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post #23 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:09 AM Thread Starter
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I want in on this...

as oil hits 118.80 right now.
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post #24 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:12 AM
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Just first one to target price or closest at final bell, December 31 (or 30 if closed). No need to have anything else.
Done deal.

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post #25 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:16 AM
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I'm afraid Denny might know something we don't know...

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post #26 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:18 AM
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I'm afraid Denny might know something we don't know...
Just an uneducated guess... remember, I guaduated from De Soto. LOL
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post #27 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Vertnut
I'm afraid Denny might know something we don't know...
Doesn't matter. 147 has been set. Think of it as Nasdaq 5049 for the time being.

A year ago a Hurricane in the gulf would have setup oil for a $10 run. It barely went up a dollar and was ultimately crushed the same day.

Up in the morning, down in the afternoon... typical bear market. With the elections in November we'll most likely see a steady decline.

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post #28 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:22 AM
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Doesn't matter. 147 has been set. Think of it as Nasdaq 5049 for the time being.

A year ago a Hurricane in the gulf would have setup oil for a $10 run. It barely went up a dollar and was ultimately crushed the same day.

Up in the morning, down in the afternoon... typical bear market. With the elections in November we'll most likely see a steady decline.
I hope you're right, though.
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post #29 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:24 AM
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Doesn't matter. 147 has been set. Think of it as Nasdaq 5049 for the time being.

A year ago a Hurricane in the gulf would have setup oil for a $10 run. It barely went up a dollar and was ultimately crushed the same day.

Up in the morning, down in the afternoon... typical bear market. With the elections in November we'll most likely see a steady decline.
It would matter if he's over in the sand box, watching tactical nukes go by on trucks...

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post #30 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Denny
I hope you're right, though.
Ultimately I think 115-117 is going to be the tipping point. At the moment the 200 day moving average is just shy of 110. I think if 115 gets hit it will be a quick decline to 110. There will be some "trading wars" at 110 and if the bears have some momentum they'll be able to push it to 100.

Very similiar to what happened between Sept-Dec of 07 when oil broke down under its 200 day moving average.

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post #31 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:28 AM
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It would matter if he's over in the sand box, watching tactical nukes go by on trucks...
I'd jump on it and ride it, waving my cowboy hat.
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post #32 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:30 AM
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Ultimately I think 115-117 is going to be the tipping point. At the moment the 200 day moving average is just shy of 110. I think if 115 gets hit it will be a quick decline to 110. There will be some "trading wars" at 110 and if the bears have some momentum they'll be able to push it to 100.

Very similiar to what happened between Sept-Dec of 07 when oil broke down under its 200 day moving average.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$wtic,uu[w,a]dalayyay[pb200]
I guess you heard Iraq also agreed to re-open that line that goes straight to the Mediterranean also. 200K barrels a day potential.
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post #33 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:31 AM
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I'd jump on it and ride it, waving my cowboy hat.
..ala Slim Pickens in "Dr. Strangelove"!

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post #34 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:32 AM
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..ala Slim Pickens in "Dr. Strangelove"!
Yessir
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post #35 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:33 AM
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I guess you heard Iraq also agreed to re-open that line that goes straight to the Mediterranean also. 200K barrels a day potential.
Yes I have.

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post #36 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:34 AM
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so what did 01WC say about prices dropping in July while the speculators are at their vacation houses in the Hamptons? Didnt that just happen?

Oh...and who was it who said that speculators were going to start leaping from their high rise windows if oil fell...I really want to see it happen

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post #37 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:40 AM
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so what did 01WC say about prices dropping in July while the speculators are at their vacation houses in the Hamptons? Didnt that just happen?

Oh...and who was it who said that speculators were going to start leaping from their high rise windows if oil fell...I really want to see it happen
Funny congress is on vacation also hmmmmm.

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post #38 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:44 AM
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I want in on this...

as oil hits 118.80 right now.
Any takers for Nate? I'm not made of money, ya know?
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post #39 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:45 AM
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That looks like a lock. Now I've got $50 that says 01 wins.


Anyone want to back Denny?
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post #40 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:47 AM Thread Starter
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That looks like a lock. Now I've got $50 that says 01 wins.


Anyone want to back Denny?
Get in line I'm next for the bet on 100 vs 150...
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post #41 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:48 AM
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Lmao!
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post #42 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 11:48 AM
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It's a win-win for me. I'd pay $100 just to see it hit $100. LOL
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post #43 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 12:53 PM
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All ur technical analysis r belong to 01wc.

Screw this fundamental and technical mumbo jumbo, I just saw an ad for a seminar here in Austin in a couple months. In four hours, a husband and wife team of industry experts will explain the basics of the stock market, and how to turn a mere $25 a month into $100k in 10 years using their fail-safe, no risk method! I'm so going to that.
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post #44 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 01:06 PM
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Good thing I'm still getting 110mpg in my Mustang.
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post #45 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 01:06 PM
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That looks like a lock. Now I've got $50 that says 01 wins.


Anyone want to back Denny?
Now you done did it. There is no lock in the markets or poker.

Last live hold 'em tourney I was in I was dealt pocket AAs under the gun. Raised a normal raise and got called by the big blind.

Flop came A68 and I was worried that he came in with some stupid cards like 79 or something. So I bet the pot and was called all in.

Figuring my set of aces was the best (and I obv wasn't laying them down) I put the money in the pot and breathed a sigh of relief when he turned over a set of 6s. Dude started packing up his shit... until the turn brought the magical 2 outer for him... the last 6.

98% to win after the flop and poof. Just shook my head as a chorus of "Sick... just sick" rang out around the table. Good hand, sir. See y'all next time. haha.

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post #46 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 01:11 PM
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Good thing I'm still getting 110mpg in my Mustang.
did stunterbob hook you up with their new bullydog mustang programmers or something? lol
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post #47 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 01:13 PM
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Not saying that is a bad thing. Saving more and borrowing less is ultimately a good deal. But the world isn't going to know how to react! It does setup a possible turn around for financials although I still wouldn't bet on financials at the moment since I think the second wave of defaults on mortgages (the alt-a's and prime's) are about to occur.
There is going to be a wave of commercial mortgage defaults as well. We are seeing a lot of deals from people that "gotta sell, no matter the price." This is the first time we have seen this in the five and a half years I have been here. Our biggest lender in Atlanta (at ING) has people calling him daily that are sinking and want to send him the keys to their building. Some of the guys who leveraged their properties 80-90% in order to overpay for them are seeing the chickens come home to roost and they have no exit.
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post #48 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 01:15 PM
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There is going to be a wave of commercial mortgage defaults as well. We are seeing a lot of deals from people that "gotta sell, no matter the price." This is the first time we have seen this in the five and a half years I have been here. Our biggest lender in Atlanta (at ING) has people calling him daily that are sinking and want to send him the keys to their building. Some of the guys who leveraged their properties 80-90% in order to overpay for them are seeing the chickens come home to roost and they have no exit.
have you seen anything like that around here? it seems like commercial property is still pretty strong around this area.
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post #49 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 01:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STANGGT40
have you seen anything like that around here? it seems like commercial property is still pretty strong around this area.
A few choice ones. Most are in markets with inflated values. A lot of them will get picked up very quickly by someone with tons of capital since you can't get financing on them.
AL P is offline  
post #50 of 219 (permalink) Old 08-05-2008, 01:27 PM
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: 8 Rib > 6 Rib
Posts: 28,254
Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P
A few choice ones. Most are in markets with inflated values. A lot of them will get picked up very quickly by someone with tons of capital since you can't get financing on them.
you need to hurry up and put together a reit so you can have some capital to pick some of these jewels up!
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