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post #1 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:15 PM Thread Starter
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Pain train a coming...

All the bears are about to take it up the ass. Options expiration tomorrow, DOW almost +700 since Tuesday's lows...

Markets will always move in the direction required to cause the most pain.

Oh oil futures down under $130 at the moment. Off $15 from its highs early this month. Oops!

More importantly, natural gas off over 20% of its high early this month.

Still don't like the markets to the upside but tomorrow might be one of the best bear traps I've seen in awhile.
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post #2 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
All the bears are about to take it up the ass. Options expiration tomorrow, DOW almost +700 since Tuesday's lows...

Markets will always move in the direction required to cause the most pain.

Oh oil futures down under $130 at the moment. Off $15 from its highs early this month. Oops!

More importantly, natural gas off over 20% of its high early this month.

Still don't like the markets to the upside but tomorrow might be one of the best bear traps I've seen in awhile.
I was preparing some chicken to marinade earlier in the kitchen and while doing so was watching one of those financial shows and they were going on and on about "if oil drops below $130" and "what a technical barrier $130 is" and all this stuff. Still, oil down, gas down, market up seems good to me.
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post #3 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:24 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by mikeb
I was preparing some chicken to marinade earlier in the kitchen and while doing so was watching one of those financial shows and they were going on and on about "if oil drops below $130" and "what a technical barrier $130 is" and all this stuff. Still, oil down, gas down, market up seems good to me.
130 has been the mark for awhile. I still use the 20% from the highs as "the mark" as a sign a bull run is over. That would put oil around 116/bbl which would be wonderful.

On the chicken thing...

I've got 4 pounds of baby back ribs on the smoker and I have an equal amount of chicken being marinaded in Stubb's Chicken Marinade at the moment.

Older brother is coming in town this afternoon with his family and its time to put on an 01WhiteCobra smack down on him. Already have his kid's telling him my chicken is better. About to twist the dagger and get them to admit my ribs are better. haha.
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post #4 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Stubb's Chicken Marinade


Stubbs is fucking AWESOME, for a ready made marinade when I'm feeling lazy.
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post #5 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:29 PM Thread Starter
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Stubbs is fucking AWESOME, for a ready made marinade when I'm feeling lazy.
I'm the same way. I was lazy today as far as cooking goes since it is a work day. Stubbie is my go to guy.
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post #6 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:32 PM
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I made the chili's fajita chicken marinade today. I usually use wish bone italian as a marinade for ordinary grilled chicken. We'll be having some nice burritos tonight, and i'll be slathering on the chipotle tobasco sauce
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post #7 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:36 PM
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....all because of you mike, I maybe making a trip to the store and putting the fabrication I have been working on for 2 nights for the camaro on hold for a few hours tonight. Some chicken fajitas sound like a wonderful idea tonight. Hopefully we dont get some of them "out of no-where" storms that have been poping up for the last few days and I can get the grill going.

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post #8 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:37 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by mikeb
I made the chili's fajita chicken marinade today. I usually use wish bone italian as a marinade for ordinary grilled chicken. We'll be having some nice burritos tonight, and i'll be slathering on the chipotle tobasco sauce
Have you seen those Lowry's 30 minute marinades? I've been looking to try them but I haven't talked to anyone that used them and don't want to fuck up an afternoon.
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post #9 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:39 PM
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I made the chili's fajita chicken marinade today.



Poor guy. I think Chili's fajitas suck. You'll have to try out my fajitas some time. I promise you won't ever want anything that resembles Chili's fajitas again.


Sorry for the bull market to cooking hi jack, old man.
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post #10 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:41 PM Thread Starter
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Sorry for the bull market to cooking hi jack, old man.
Not an issue.

I'm not participating in it. More interested in the ribs and chicken this afternoon I'm cooking.

I'll have to see how expiry plays out tomorrow and see if I can't jump in to catch a few ticks for fun.
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post #11 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
All the bears are about to take it up the ass. Options expiration tomorrow, DOW almost +700 since Tuesday's lows...

Markets will always move in the direction required to cause the most pain.

Oh oil futures down under $130 at the moment. Off $15 from its highs early this month. Oops!

More importantly, natural gas off over 20% of its high early this month.

Still don't like the markets to the upside but tomorrow might be one of the best bear traps I've seen in awhile.
i hope this downward spiral of oil continues! it's down almost $16 over the past three days and even the oil pipeline explosion in nigeria didn't cause it to go up! i'm amazed! it always seems like something happens when oil starts to go down...pipeline explosion, some conflict, etc. it's almost like someone is paying someone to do something stupid to make prices jump. anyway, i'm ready to gleefully watch the freefall from all of the hedge fund guys pulling their money out of oil!
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post #12 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:52 PM
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It's about damn time.....that margin trading isn't looking so good now if it continues to fall like this.

the only thing that bothers me is that if oil/natural gas goes up at all, we feel the pain at the pump/electric bills immediately. It seems when it falls 10% we see no price relief......crock of shit if you ask me.

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post #13 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 02:54 PM
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It's about damn time.....that margin trading isn't looking so good now if it continues to fall like this.

the only thing that bothers me is that if oil/natural gas goes up at all, we feel the pain at the pump/electric bills immediately. It seems when it falls 10% we see no price relief......crock of shit if you ask me.

--wes
gas went up the other day when oil hit it's peak (intraday) of 147ish...it's gone down three straight days (including today) and i haven't seen one station drop prices by even a penny! ...and i've driven quite a bit today.
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post #14 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Have you seen those Lowry's 30 minute marinades? I've been looking to try them but I haven't talked to anyone that used them and don't want to fuck up an afternoon.
The Lowry's baja chipotle marinade is very good when used on chicken.
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post #15 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 03:09 PM
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I don't know dick about finance, but I know that Stubbs makes some fine product!
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post #16 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 03:22 PM
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Stubbs is fucking AWESOME, for a ready made marinade when I'm feeling lazy.
If you like Stubb's, you might like Adkin's dry rub too, if ytou feel like experimenting.
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post #17 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 03:23 PM
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If you like Stubb's, you might like Adkin's dry rub too, if ytou feel like experimenting.
I go through a couple packages of the Adkin's a month, excellent stuff.

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post #18 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 03:26 PM
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I go through a couple packages of the Adkin's a month, excellent stuff.

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best pork rib rub I ever used. I don't care for it on chicken, but I don't care much for bbq chicken anyhow.

You can also drizzle a little bit in a ranch dressing mix and give it a special little bite.
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post #19 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 03:39 PM
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Monday, the world was over.
Today, America is regaining control, gas will be $.79/gal and everyone about a 400 FICO just got instantly approved for everything.

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post #20 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 03:44 PM
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I love these reporters.

Monday, the world was over.
Today, America is regaining control, gas will be $.79/gal and everyone about a 400 FICO just got instantly approved for everything.

....Welcome to america

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post #21 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 03:50 PM
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I can't even begin to speculate which way this crazy shit is going . I sold off some of my positions today in hopes they will come back down in the next couple of weeks to buy them back

Last edited by thesource; 07-17-2008 at 04:29 PM.
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post #22 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 04:23 PM Thread Starter
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Making money in the stock market... eating some good ass chicken and ribs... this has to be the best thread in 2008.

About the only thing I can add is some waffles. Some chicken and waffles sounds pretty damn good.
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post #23 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 04:38 PM Thread Starter
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Dammit, Google missed expectations. Those flakes better not rain on my parade tomorrow.

Although I should say that Google made 1.25 billion dollars in the last quarter.
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post #24 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 04:40 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Dammit, Google missed expectations. Those flakes better not rain on my parade tomorrow.
how long do you think this oil thing is going to last? i'm hoping for $30/bbl!
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post #25 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 04:41 PM Thread Starter
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how long do you think this oil thing is going to last? i'm hoping for $30/bbl!
LOL. I'll take a dip to $100 at the moment. 115-120 tells me the bulls are done for now which means it can fall another 10-15% from there.
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post #26 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 04:41 PM
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how long do you think this oil thing is going to last? i'm hoping for $30/bbl!

LMMFAO !!!!!!
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post #27 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
LOL. I'll take a dip to $100 at the moment. 115-120 tells me the bulls are done for now which means it can fall another 10-15% from there.
$100 seems reasonable at this point, though it sure didn't back in november or whatever it was when it first hit $100... it's funny how everyone is flush with oil and even opec claims that they have enough oil to supply us for many decades to come, but you still have those that claim that we're close to tapped out. hell, even canada is jumping on the oil bandwagon at this point! i just hope that demand stays low enough (ie; prius owners don't start driving suv's again) so it keeps dropping, so it will be a little cheaper to drive my 4x4 crewcab diesel everyday! oh yeah, and someone needs to shoot those epa homos that are making diesel cost $1 more than gas!

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post #28 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Have you seen those Lowry's 30 minute marinades? I've been looking to try them but I haven't talked to anyone that used them and don't want to fuck up an afternoon.
I got a couple of those free with coupons, but the selection had been picked over. I got the italian steak flavor one and did some steaks last weekend and it was pretty good. Seemed like repackaged italian salad dressing to me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bcoop
Poor guy. I think Chili's fajitas suck. You'll have to try out my fajitas some time. I promise you won't ever want anything that resembles Chili's fajitas again.
could be, i've never had chili's fajitas; that's just what the recipe is called. Anyway, it's dammed good! and easy to make. Only needs to marinade for about 5 hours but all night is better.
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post #29 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 06:17 PM
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The Lowry's baja chipotle marinade is very good when used on chicken.
HELL YEA! its also good for making carne asada.

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post #30 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 06:54 PM
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gas went up the other day when oil hit it's peak (intraday) of 147ish...it's gone down three straight days (including today) and i haven't seen one station drop prices by even a penny! ...and i've driven quite a bit today.
They have to sell off the gas that they bought at a higher price before they can adjust.

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post #31 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 10:42 PM
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They have to sell off the gas that they bought at a higher price before they can adjust.
.
That is correct. The oil that is sold on the futures market today doesn't hit the spot market for 90 days. Refineries buy their oil on the spot market, refine it and their gas goes on the wholesale market. So it could be a while before prices go down.

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post #32 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 11:22 PM Thread Starter
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That is correct. The oil that is sold on the futures market today doesn't hit the spot market for 90 days. Refineries buy their oil on the spot market, refine it and their gas goes on the wholesale market. So it could be a while before prices go down.
Not true. But you go ahead...

Actually spot oil is almost a dollar LESS than the future price at the moment. Refineries hedge just like everyone else. To think refineries buy spot for all their product is insane.
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post #33 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-17-2008, 11:58 PM
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....all because of you mike, I maybe making a trip to the store and putting the fabrication I have been working on for 2 nights for the camaro on hold for a few hours tonight. Some chicken fajitas sound like a wonderful idea tonight. Hopefully we dont get some of them "out of no-where" storms that have been poping up for the last few days and I can get the grill going.
mine was good shit tonight

<--full belly
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post #34 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 12:03 AM
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That is correct. The oil that is sold on the futures market today doesn't hit the spot market for 90 days. Refineries buy their oil on the spot market, refine it and their gas goes on the wholesale market. So it could be a while before prices go down.
but its bullshit when they mark up the price and didnt even get a new delivery. The QT by my house changes their prices DAILY...I sure as hell dont see their trucks delivering daily. As soon as oil is up for the day, gas prices seem to go up, but it doesnt work vice versa.

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post #35 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by black01gt
They have to sell off the gas that they bought at a higher price before they can adjust.

Yep, Stubbs is the shit. I met his grandson who runs the business now a few weeks ago at a trade show. Good live music too.
i understand all of that, but if they're going to follow that rule they should follow it when it goes down and up. if oil goes up, they're prices change as soon as the market closes...if it goes down, they're prices change when they get a new cheaper batch of oil in...
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post #36 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 09:05 AM
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post #37 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 09:07 AM
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but its bullshit when they mark up the price and didnt even get a new delivery. The QT by my house changes their prices DAILY...I sure as hell dont see their trucks delivering daily. As soon as oil is up for the day, gas prices seem to go up, but it doesnt work vice versa.
It reminds me of the LIFO (Last in, First out) accounting method. When prices are on the rise you sell the most recent products, which cost you more, first. All the while you have product you paid less than that for. Might be a bad comparison, I don't know.

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post #38 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by mikeb
mine was good shit tonight

<--full belly
Man I got screwed....went to the store after work got all the stuff, went home and worked on the car a little and was about to start cooking it with dad, all of a sudden cops show up in the backyard and tell me I have a flat tire on the diesel and I have 24hrs to get it fixed since there has been a sticker on it since tuesday night(I dont drive it but when I have to). Apparently I ran over a damn allen head socket sitting in our driveway, no idea the tire was flat since it was on the side I never see, had to change that thing out which takes forever. Then I was to tired to cook. Rents had pasta, I got stuck with a bowl of grapes and a few crackers

Needless to say....since I am not racing tonight I will be making some nice 'ol juicy steaks ill take the fajitas to the track this weekend

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post #39 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 09:50 AM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by 8mpg
but its bullshit when they mark up the price and didnt even get a new delivery. The QT by my house changes their prices DAILY...I sure as hell dont see their trucks delivering daily. As soon as oil is up for the day, gas prices seem to go up, but it doesnt work vice versa.
Quote:
Originally Posted by slow06
It reminds me of the LIFO (Last in, First out) accounting method. When prices are on the rise you sell the most recent products, which cost you more, first. All the while you have product you paid less than that for. Might be a bad comparison, I don't know.

It is actually our fault. When prices are rising we'll search out a better price. When prices are dropping consumers don't search as much. So gas stations will be slow to drop the price... just enough to keep you from searching out a better price.

Interestingly, stations make a better profit margin when prices are falling then when prices are rising.

To make up for the lower profit margin when prices are rising stations will attempt to hold back on lowering their price as much as possible.

Psychologically, the typical consumer will be more than glad to pay more IF the last time they paid for gas at a particular station it was higher. So QT knows even a .02 drop in prices will keep their typical customers from search out a better deal down the road.

We all know DFWStangs members are astute consumers so it doesn't apply to us.

Personally it would take almost a .10 differential between two stations for me to make a change. If the price is only a .02 differential and I'm putting 22 gallons into the Tahoe, I'm only saving 44 cents by switching. At 10 cents we're talking 2.00 which could save me a hundred a year. A two cent differential only saves me about 22 dollars a year.

Last edited by 01WhiteCobra; 07-18-2008 at 10:02 AM.
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post #40 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 09:54 AM
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Man I got screwed....went to the store after work got all the stuff, went home and worked on the car a little and was about to start cooking it with dad, all of a sudden cops show up in the backyard and tell me I have a flat tire on the diesel and I have 24hrs to get it fixed since there has been a sticker on it since tuesday night(I dont drive it but when I have to). Apparently I ran over a damn allen head socket sitting in our driveway, no idea the tire was flat since it was on the side I never see, had to change that thing out which takes forever. Then I was to tired to cook. Rents had pasta, I got stuck with a bowl of grapes and a few crackers

Needless to say....since I am not racing tonight I will be making some nice 'ol juicy steaks ill take the fajitas to the track this weekend
go to the store, buy a quality tire plug kit, and next time you can just fix the damn thing right there without having to pull it!
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post #41 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 10:02 AM
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go to the store, buy a quality tire plug kit, and next time you can just fix the damn thing right there without having to pull it!
No this tire was junked anyways, plus the hole was to big(how the freaking thing got stuck in there is beyond me it was a t-55 torx head). It was going to need to be replaced this winter anyways with the wear it had on it. Just got a jump start till this morning

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post #42 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 02:31 PM
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Thumbs up

oil's down for the fourth straight day...though only ~.40. keep droppin!
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post #43 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 03:01 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STANGGT40
oil's down for the fourth straight day...though only ~.40. keep droppin!
The nice thing was it started up this morning ("those mofos brought it down too fast") and ended up down again.

From the high of the day I think it is down almost 2.00.

Signals a bear environment as gains are taken out quickly. Just the opposite in a bull market. A great trend/sign to trade in a bull market is down early up late.
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post #44 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 03:25 PM
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http://www.oil-price.net/

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post #45 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-18-2008, 10:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by black01gt
They have to sell off the gas that they bought at a higher price before they can adjust.

Yep, Stubbs is the shit. I met his grandson who runs the business now a few weeks ago at a trade show. Good live music too.
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post #46 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-22-2008, 03:28 PM
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oil is down almost $20 from its high of $147 (intraday)...anybody seen any reasonable drops in gas yet? the 7-11 by my house dropped 3 cents! lol
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post #47 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-22-2008, 03:29 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by STANGGT40
oil is down almost $20 from its high of $147 (intraday)...anybody seen any reasonable drops in gas yet? the 7-11 by my house dropped 3 cents! lol
a few posts up...

Quote:

It is actually our fault. When prices are rising we'll search out a better price. When prices are dropping consumers don't search as much. So gas stations will be slow to drop the price... just enough to keep you from searching out a better price.

Interestingly, stations make a better profit margin when prices are falling then when prices are rising.

To make up for the lower profit margin when prices are rising stations will attempt to hold back on lowering their price as much as possible.

Psychologically, the typical consumer will be more than glad to pay more IF the last time they paid for gas at a particular station it was higher. So QT knows even a .02 drop in prices will keep their typical customers from search out a better deal down the road.

We all know DFWStangs members are astute consumers so it doesn't apply to us.

Personally it would take almost a .10 differential between two stations for me to make a change. If the price is only a .02 differential and I'm putting 22 gallons into the Tahoe, I'm only saving 44 cents by switching. At 10 cents we're talking 2.00 which could save me a hundred a year. A two cent differential only saves me about 22 dollars a year.
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post #48 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-22-2008, 03:47 PM
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I buy gas exclusively at the QT near our house. Sam's is a few cents cheaper but out of my way.

For the record though, I will buy it anywhere along my route, it just turns out that the QT is consistently lower. This weekend it was at $4.24 for super unlead, today it is $4.14. They seem to be going lower by a few pennies every day.

Interesting that it dropped $3 today. I am still waiting for the blow up. I think there has to be a big ass sell off coming soon. I am of the thinking that sub $120 is where it would have to go in order for that to happen. We will see.

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post #49 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-22-2008, 03:53 PM
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Gasoline futures dropped about .08 today on the wholesale market. Can't hurt...

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post #50 of 56 (permalink) Old 07-22-2008, 04:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P
I buy gas exclusively at the QT near our house. Sam's is a few cents cheaper but out of my way.

For the record though, I will buy it anywhere along my route, it just turns out that the QT is consistently lower. This weekend it was at $4.24 for super unlead, today it is $4.14. They seem to be going lower by a few pennies every day.

Interesting that it dropped $3 today. I am still waiting for the blow up. I think there has to be a big ass sell off coming soon. I am of the thinking that sub $120 is where it would have to go in order for that to happen. We will see.
there's a "clarks" in wylie that has had diesel for $4.59 for the past 6 weeks or so...i don't know if they've dropped or not since oil started dropping, though. i've seen $3.84 for regular in dallas...i can't keep up with premium because i usually only buy that about every three weeks or so.
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