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post #1 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 12:19 PM Thread Starter
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10k Range

Well just with in the last few minutes the dow had dipped into the 10k range. Its up a few points and resting at 11k even right this second.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

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post #2 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 12:20 PM
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If the dow was union, it'd be up at around 12k.

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post #3 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 12:21 PM
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I think it is officially a bear market for sure. Now is the time to start buying
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post #4 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 12:32 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SOHC
If the dow was union, it'd be up at around 12k.
LOL just imagine what it would be if Jimmy Hoffa was still around.

Well it looks like the dow is up another 25 points to 11,026. Something tells me market forces really don't want to see it close below 11k. That might be bad for buisness.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

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post #5 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 12:39 PM
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DOW has been a joke for some time now. More concerning is the S&P 500 under 1240 which seems to be the "magic mark."

If the S&P 500 closes under 1240 all bets are off.
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post #6 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
DOW has been a joke for some time now. More concerning is the S&P 500 under 1240 which seems to be the "magic mark."

If the S&P 500 closes under 1240 all bets are off.
I'd say the DOW is what the general public tends to base fear on as the media hammers it. From an industry internal prospective I'd say the S&P 500 is what makes the street guys nervous.

Any gut feeling on where the bottom is? I feel a 9750 coming on.

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post #7 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 12:52 PM
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Damn, over 90% of the the S&P 500 is negative today!

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

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post #8 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
DOW has been a joke for some time now. More concerning is the S&P 500 under 1240 which seems to be the "magic mark."

If the S&P 500 closes under 1240 all bets are off.
What? You are not going to buy the dip for the bear rally?

The new credit market news will take time to start to slow down the economy. I actually believe the FED will lower again before the end of the year. Deflation is now a real possibility. I also think that this recession or economic condition or what you want to define it as, will last well in to next year, as credit unwinds and the money supply is deflated.
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post #9 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:04 PM
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Fed would be crazy to lower again. The resulting increase in the price of oil would hurt the economy even more. They've got to wait this credit market thing out, let it solve itself and then start raising rates to counter the inflation they have created.

I agree on the the S&P 500 and 1240. It hasn't been under 1250 in quite some time. It wouldn't suprise me if we have a day next week that has a massive correction.
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post #10 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:11 PM
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Originally Posted by AL P
I agree on the the S&P 500 and 1240. It hasn't been under 1250 in quite some time. It wouldn't suprise me if we have a day next week that has a massive correction.
~1236 is a two year low.
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post #11 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasDevilDog
What? You are not going to buy the dip for the bear rally?
I've actually been nibbling a little for a select few stocks. But no, I'm sitting at probably 75% cash at the moment in the trading account waiting patiently for the news to declare the world is over.
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post #12 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by TexasDevilDog
The new credit market news will take time to start to slow down the economy. I actually believe the FED will lower again before the end of the year. Deflation is now a real possibility. I also think that this recession or economic condition or what you want to define it as, will last well in to next year, as credit unwinds and the money supply is deflated.
You think? I'm looking for rates to increase the second half.

They've shot all their bullets and the indians are still raiding the fort. Time to rebuild the walls.

If they do lower again I'll finally capitulate and say the American economy is in for a long depression. Not great depression stage but a really long unwinding and rebuilding.
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post #13 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
You think? I'm looking for rates to increase the second half.

They've shot all their bullets and the indians are still raiding the fort. Time to rebuild the walls.

If they do lower again I'll finally capitulate and say the American economy is in for a long depression. Not great depression stage but a really long unwinding and rebuilding.
I believe the US is going in to a liquity trap like Japan did in 1990.
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post #14 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasDevilDog
I believe the US is going in to a liquity trap like Japan did in 1990.
Very possible. If not now soon. The problem with Japan at the moment is they aren't replacing their population. The average age has been creeping up for decades.

Hmmm... is there another country like that?
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post #15 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasDevilDog
I believe the US is going in to a liquity trap like Japan did in 1990.
I can see that possibility happening too.
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post #16 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Very possible. If not now soon. The problem with Japan at the moment is they aren't replacing their population. The average age has been creeping up for decades.

Hmmm... is there another country like that?
Or continent? Like say, Europe?
They need to posture themselves (or us) in a position of rebuilding the value of this country.

According to a liberal friend of mine "The market can not correct itself and the Gov't HAS to save us" Let it correct.

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post #17 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasDevilDog
I believe the US is going in to a liquity trap like Japan did in 1990.
God lets hope not, thats the one big fear I have of all this. That would damn near destroy us, I dont think our gov't would have enough "money gifts" to make a difference if we ended in that scenario. Just thinking about it makes me cringe.

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post #18 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 01:53 PM
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Lol

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post #19 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 03:07 PM
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you cant correct a market, and markets really dont correct them selves, money just finds new places to grow and then brings the market along with it.

we are in a bear market right now, so what, there are plenty of other investing oppertunities to take advantage of during a bear market.

by the way did anyone else buy shares or fannie or freddie when it was cheap this moringing in anticipation of a fed move?
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post #20 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 03:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cannonball996
money just finds new places to grow and then brings the market along with it.
LMAO! That's the fucking market correcting itself. Are you mental?

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post #21 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 03:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cannonball996
you cant correct a market, and markets really dont correct them selves, money just finds new places to grow and then brings the market along with it.

we are in a bear market right now, so what, there are plenty of other investing oppertunities to take advantage of during a bear market.

by the way did anyone else buy shares or fannie or freddie when it was cheap this moringing in anticipation of a fed move?
Damn, 25 years of market trading down the fucking tubes.
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post #22 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by SOHC
LMAO! That's the fucking market correcting itself. Are you mental?
but its not throwing money at failing industries that corrects the market, not like the liberals want to do
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post #23 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 03:28 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Damn, 25 years of market trading down the fucking tubes.

Well at least you always have poker to fall back on.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

Don't cupple up without protection.
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post #24 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by cannonball996
but its not throwing money at failing industries that corrects the market, not like the liberals want to do
I still don't know what the fuck you are trying to say.
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post #25 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by FreightTrain
Well at least you always have poker to fall back on.
It appears it is the only way to make money these days!
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post #26 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 03:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cannonball996
you cant correct a market, and markets really dont correct them selves, money just finds new places to grow and then brings the market along with it.
I totally agree. The market needs to wring out the bad investments and bad companies. The more that they try to help soften the blow the longer they allow the distortion to last. The market should reward good business and punish bad business. It is market competiton.
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post #27 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 03:53 PM
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I totally agree. The market needs to wring out the bad investments. The more that they try to help soften the blow the longer they allow the distortion to last.
Totally agree to what? That a market can't correct either by themselves or by indirectly through manipulation?

Utterly absurd thinking. Markets do correct themselves and do it all the time.
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post #28 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Totally agree to what? That a market can't correct either by themselves or by indirectly through manipulation?

Utterly absurd thinking. Markets do correct themselves and do it all the time.
I believe he made a typo. Based on the rest of his post, I read the first part correct but the second I read as "markets really do correct them selves". He can't mean both ways.
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post #29 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 05:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
DOW has been a joke for some time now. More concerning is the S&P 500 under 1240 which seems to be the "magic mark."

If the S&P 500 closes under 1240 all bets are off.
1239.49, close one.
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post #30 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 10:43 PM
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Can I take this tin foil hat off yet, or am I still "that guy?"
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post #31 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 10:56 PM
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Can I take this tin foil hat off yet, or am I still "that guy?"
Ur still that guy.

Until I hear of nuclear weapons being fired all is well. I'm a supplier of software and services to the auto industry and I'm having my best year ever (well, now that Chrysler finally paid for 2007...)

At the moment I'm listening to Herbie Hancock, The River: Joni Letters, and all is well.
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post #32 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 10:59 PM
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Ur still that guy.

Until I hear of nuclear weapons being fired all is well. I'm a supplier of software and services to the auto industry and I'm having my best year ever (well, now that Chrysler finally paid for 2007...)
LMAO and I thought paying 60 days out sucked!
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post #33 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 11:02 PM
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LMAO and I thought paying 60 days out sucked!
Dude, we've seen 420 days this year and auto companies are typically 180 days. It was actually really cool this year because we are cash-basis (monthly income-monthly expenses = partner's nut) so the fact we had some late payers made 2008 stellar thru the first half.

We had some fill-in for 2007 we made up for the late payments so all is good.

I'm more concerned about 2009 since typically the late payers eventually run out of room and we're low on the totem pole so they are scratching bottom in 2008.
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post #34 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 11:07 PM
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Wow. I guess we all feel this in one way or another. Since I have no prosperous hobby, such as your marketplay, I've had to resort to a "stable" line of work.
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post #35 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 11:13 PM
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Wow. I guess we all feel this in one way or another. Since I have no prosperous hobby, such as your marketplay, I've had to resort to a "stable" line of work.
Market sucks right now. I don't have enough to be "the in crowd" so I need to keep on the sidelines for now.

Poker always rocks, lots of dumbasses out there.

I'm good though. I have lots of family (mine and inlaws) in the oil bidness so that if things really got out of whack I've got a huge cushion to fall on.

Even without that, I just barter away radiant barrier and solar screens for my house for some IT work at the company providing it.

At this point I'm not worried about me. I'm worried for my two daughters and what they'll have to deal with when I'm long retired. I'm frustrating as hell with our leadership and the mess we are in today. We shouldn't be here.
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post #36 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-11-2008, 11:15 PM
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At this point I'm not worried about me. I'm worried for my two daughters and what they'll have to deal with when I'm long retired. I'm frustrating as hell with our leadership and the mess we are in today. We shouldn't be here.
Among the sea of ignorance and pride, you are smart to be worried.
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post #37 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-15-2008, 03:26 PM Thread Starter
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Well the Dow finally closed in the 10k range. I'm begining to think the last ray of hope we have for this year is the holiday shopping season. Thank god its only a few short months away. Maybe it will be the steriod shot this economy needs to get things moving again.

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

Don't cupple up without protection.
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post #38 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-15-2008, 03:33 PM
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Well the Dow finally closed in the 10k range. I'm begining to think the last ray of hope we have for this year is the holiday shopping season. Thank god its only a few short months away. Maybe it will be the steriod shot this economy needs to get things moving again.
oil is down over $6 today as well...if we can keep all of the natives happy, maybe it will continue that trend! i'm starting to think that everytime oil drops, exxon pays some idiots in iran or somewhere to start shooting eachother!
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post #39 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-15-2008, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Market sucks right now. I don't have enough to be "the in crowd" so I need to keep on the sidelines for now.

Poker always rocks, lots of dumbasses out there.

I'm good though. I have lots of family (mine and inlaws) in the oil bidness so that if things really got out of whack I've got a huge cushion to fall on.

Even without that, I just barter away radiant barrier and solar screens for my house for some IT work at the company providing it.

At this point I'm not worried about me. I'm worried for my two daughters and what they'll have to deal with when I'm long retired. I'm frustrating as hell with our leadership and the mess we are in today. We shouldn't be here.
Funny...I was thinking the same thing. I'm not as prosperous as you, but I've always been a "survivor" of sorts..."multi-faceted", if you will. I, too, am worried about my girls. They're grown (youngest at UT), but I still worry for their future.

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post #40 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-15-2008, 03:38 PM Thread Starter
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I, too, am worried about my girls. They're grown (youngest at UT), but I still worry for their future.
A young woman can always make a buck, even during a recession

TRAIN TRASH it's like WHITE TRASH but with money.

My other vehicle is a Locomotive.

Don't cupple up without protection.
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post #41 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-15-2008, 03:50 PM
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A young woman can always make a buck, even during a recession
you so nasty!



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post #42 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-15-2008, 04:15 PM
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Send em my way, Vert - I'll take care of them.
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post #43 of 46 (permalink) Old 07-15-2008, 05:36 PM
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Originally Posted by SOHC
If the dow was union, it'd be up at around 12k.
But only for 2 hour shifts, 4 days a week.
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post #44 of 46 (permalink) Old 09-11-2008, 08:24 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
You think? I'm looking for rates to increase the second half.

They've shot all their bullets and the indians are still raiding the fort. Time to rebuild the walls.

If they do lower again I'll finally capitulate and say the American economy is in for a long depression. Not great depression stage but a really long unwinding and rebuilding.
I made my previous statement about lower rates because of the deflationary effects of the housing market collapse and the banking troubles. Even though the government didn't include the housing run up as "inflationary", it was. Just as now the housing market is still going down, it is deflationary.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080911/26656722.html

Quote:
Though there’s virtually no chance the Fed will change interest rates at its meeting next Tuesday, there’s a growing likelihood it will make subtle changes in the language of its policy statement, placing greater emphasis on the risks to growth than the threat of inflation.

And that may be the first step in a stunning policy reversal that could lead to yet another interest rate cut at the end of this year or early 2009, a move widely considered out of the question as little as a week ago.
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post #45 of 46 (permalink) Old 10-10-2008, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by TexasDevilDog
What? You are not going to buy the dip for the bear rally?

The new credit market news will take time to start to slow down the economy. I actually believe the FED will lower again before the end of the year. Deflation is now a real possibility. I also think that this recession or economic condition or what you want to define it as, will last well in to next year, as credit unwinds and the money supply is deflated.
I didn't get a chance to gloat the other day on my earlier predictions of lower rates due to being in NC right now.
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post #46 of 46 (permalink) Old 10-11-2008, 12:37 AM
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Can I take this tin foil hat off yet, or am I still "that guy?"
Well, can I?
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