Drop in Oil have anything to do with T. Boone Pickens? - DFWstangs Forums
 
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post #1 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 02:28 PM Thread Starter
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Drop in Oil have anything to do with T. Boone Pickens?

he's about to buy television ads and has been pushing alternatives to foreign oil (natural gas, coal, nuclear, etc)...the guy has a ton of dough, a lot of respect in the market, and he's a hedge fund manager with who knows how much in capital that he's controlling...maybe he'll convince some investors to start a sell-off that will drop oil to a reasonable level. he was one of the first out there to start spouting off about how oil was going to jump to 100, 125, etc...and i'm sure that had a lot to do with the prices going up as a lot of investors followed his lead (who knows...maybe not)...

brad
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post #2 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 02:41 PM
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I saw him last night, saying that "wind energy" was the future in Texas, and that we had more "wind" than anyone else... It will be tough to burn that shit in my car.

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post #3 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 02:50 PM
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Pickens is an old time oil man that will soon be called a water man. He's betting alot of money that the next gold rush will be in water. He's been buying up water rights for sometime now. In my opinion he's a very smart man.

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post #4 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by FreightTrain
Pickens is an old time oil man that will soon be called a water man. He's betting alot of money that the next gold rush will be in water. He's been buying up water rights for sometime now. In my opinion he's a very smart man.
He was batting 1.000 until he thought of that.
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post #5 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Denny
He was batting 1.000 until he thought of that.
You are kidding, right? North Texas is about to get a water shock in the next 10 years.
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post #6 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:07 PM Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
You are kidding, right? North Texas is about to get a water shock in the next 10 years.
i can see that with how many people keep moving here...they should enforce the rules that they do in a drought (watering yards, etc), but as soon as it rains that goes out the window.
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post #7 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Denny
He was batting 1.000 until he thought of that.

Yall dam near ran out of water what 2 years ago? I know North Texas has even considered buying water from the Okies, but they refuse to sell it to yall lol. East Texas has fought hard against North Texas building reservoirs in their back yard also. Of course I don't blame them because 60% of the water that is used in North Texas is used for watering yards.

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post #8 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
You are kidding, right? North Texas is about to get a water shock in the next 10 years.
Al Gore is going to straighten everything out... no worries. Pickens severly underestimates the brilliance behind the innerweb.

No, seriously, the water will be there. Let me let you in on a little secret. Have you not noticed the change in the wind over, say, the last year or two? It's become stronger and more prevailing, right? You guys want to talk about climate change and everyone looks at overall average temperature rises. You all are barking up the wrong tree. Watch the change in the winds. That is what controls the cloud movement, which brings rain. The wind is caused by a chain of temperature from the poles to the equator. It is an obvious pattern that it follows. It's not the temperatures here that means shit, really, look at the chain's temperatures. I wish I could explain it better, but without walking it through with a map, it's hard as hell. We're going to be wet in no time, for quite a while. Most of the Mid-West, actually.
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post #9 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Denny
Al Gore is going to straighten everything out... no worries. Pickens severly underestimates the brilliance behind the innerweb.

No, seriously, the water will be there. Let me let you in on a little secret. Have you not noticed the change in the wind over, say, the last year or two? It's become stronger and more prevailing, right? You guys want to talk about climate change and everyone looks at overall average temperature rises. You all are barking up the wrong tree. Watch the change in the winds. That is what controls the cloud movement, which brings rain. The wind is caused by a chain of temperature from the poles to the equator. It is an obvious pattern that it follows. It's not the temperatures here that means shit, really, look at the chain's temperatures. I wish I could explain it better, but without walking it through with a map, it's hard as hell. We're going to be wet in no time, for quite a while. Most of the Mid-West, actually.
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post #10 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny
Al Gore is going to straighten everything out... no worries. Pickens severly underestimates the brilliance behind the innerweb.

No, seriously, the water will be there. Let me let you in on a little secret. Have you not noticed the change in the wind over, say, the last year or two? It's become stronger and more prevailing, right? You guys want to talk about climate change and everyone looks at overall average temperature rises. You all are barking up the wrong tree. Watch the change in the winds. That is what controls the cloud movement, which brings rain. The wind is caused by a chain of temperature from the poles to the equator. It is an obvious pattern that it follows. It's not the temperatures here that means shit, really, look at the chain's temperatures. I wish I could explain it better, but without walking it through with a map, it's hard as hell. We're going to be wet in no time, for quite a while. Most of the Mid-West, actually.
Forget about climate for the moment and look at population growth.

On average, water consumption goes up 6 times with every doubling of the population of an area.

We don't have new water supplies in North Texas or any significant new capacity in North Texas.

Great example, 2006 was a drought. Lake Lavon dried up to nothing. Boats stuck in the mud nothing.

The next year we had an above average rain, the lakes flooded. Lake Lavon was releasing millions down stream to Hubbard. Hubbard was releasing millions down stream into the Trinity and eventually it all went into the Gulf.

It could triple rain every year and we don't have the capacity to maintain and must drain off.
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post #11 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Geor!
Denny Dungan.
People laugh more at that than my end of the world spiel.
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post #12 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Forget about climate for the moment and look at population growth.

On average, water consumption goes up 6 times with every doubling of the population of an area.

We don't have new water supplies in North Texas or any significant new capacity in North Texas.

Great example, 2006 was a drought. Lake Lavon dried up to nothing. Boats stuck in the mud nothing.

The next year we had an above average rain, the lakes flooded. Lake Lavon was releasing millions down stream to Hubbard. Hubbard was releasing millions down stream into the Trinity and eventually it all went into the Gulf.

It could triple rain every year and we don't have the capacity to maintain and must drain off.

Should have tapped into the miss. river last month, we would be set for the rest of '08

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post #13 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Forget about climate for the moment and look at population growth.

On average, water consumption goes up 6 times with every doubling of the population of an area.

We don't have new water supplies in North Texas or any significant new capacity in North Texas.

Great example, 2006 was a drought. Lake Lavon dried up to nothing. Boats stuck in the mud nothing.

The next year we had an above average rain, the lakes flooded. Lake Lavon was releasing millions down stream to Hubbard. Hubbard was releasing millions down stream into the Trinity and eventually it all went into the Gulf.

It could triple rain every year and we don't have the capacity to maintain and must drain off.
And you're looking at the population in 10 years? I don't think you'll be having to worry about that for that time-frame.
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post #14 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:19 PM
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And you're looking at the population in 10 years? I don't think you'll be having to worry about that for that time-frame.
According to you it doesn't matter what Pickens, or any of us do before 2012. It's all going to shit anyway.

I'd rather prepare that your vision of 2012 doesn't happen and have it happen than vice versa.
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post #15 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:21 PM
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According to you it doesn't matter what Pickens, or any of us do before 2012. It's all going to shit anyway.

I'd rather prepare that your vision of 2012 doesn't happen and have it happen than vice versa.
I'm not doing the whole 2012 thing, even though I find it odd that the timing is coinciding rather well. And I'm not saying this world will just end either. It's just going to be a shitty ride for a while.
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post #16 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Forget about climate for the moment and look at population growth.

On average, water consumption goes up 6 times with every doubling of the population of an area.

We don't have new water supplies in North Texas or any significant new capacity in North Texas.

Great example, 2006 was a drought. Lake Lavon dried up to nothing. Boats stuck in the mud nothing.

The next year we had an above average rain, the lakes flooded. Lake Lavon was releasing millions down stream to Hubbard. Hubbard was releasing millions down stream into the Trinity and eventually it all went into the Gulf.

It could triple rain every year and we don't have the capacity to maintain and must drain off.
under contract with the city of dallas lake lavon has to give them a certain amount of water each year. Why not give it to them when you have to much instead of when you dont have any. Lavons damn has also been damaged for the last ten years so they cant hold at full for very long.

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post #17 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:35 PM
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Al Gore is going to straighten everything out... no worries. Pickens severly underestimates the brilliance behind the innerweb.

No, seriously, the water will be there. Let me let you in on a little secret. Have you not noticed the change in the wind over, say, the last year or two? It's become stronger and more prevailing, right? You guys want to talk about climate change and everyone looks at overall average temperature rises. You all are barking up the wrong tree. Watch the change in the winds. That is what controls the cloud movement, which brings rain. The wind is caused by a chain of temperature from the poles to the equator. It is an obvious pattern that it follows. It's not the temperatures here that means shit, really, look at the chain's temperatures. I wish I could explain it better, but without walking it through with a map, it's hard as hell. We're going to be wet in no time, for quite a while. Most of the Mid-West, actually.

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post #18 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by 67camino
under contract with the city of dallas lake lavon has to give them a certain amount of water each year. Why not give it to them when you have to much instead of when you dont have any. Lavons damn has also been damaged for the last ten years so they cant hold at full for very long.
Where are they gonna put it?

As far as the dam at Lavon, it's been holding full for well over a year now. In fact it was holding over 500 feet (normal 492) for a couple of months last year.

Dallas doesn't get their water from Lavon but from Hubbard, Grapevine, Lewisville, Roberts and Tawakoni. Dallas owns Hubbard.

They release Lavon water to insure Hubbard is at a constant level and it doesn't matter what Lavon is.
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post #19 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 04:02 PM
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I don't know about the whole water deal. They could always run a pipeline to the Red River and get a ton of water. Storage capacity, well that could be an issue so maybe it could hinge from not having a place to store it in the years where we get little rainfall.

One thing that I have talked about for a while here at work is the fact that D/FW will be the biggest metro area in the U.S. before too long. The reason is that we aren't land constrained in any way. The top three metro areas are land constrained, many of the other metro areas in the top ten are also land constrained. It is one of the reasons why our real estate here is so cheap.
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post #20 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 04:05 PM
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I don't know about the whole water deal. They could always run a pipeline to the Red River and get a ton of water. Storage capacity, well that could be an issue so maybe it could hinge from not having a place to store it in the years where we get little rainfall.

One thing that I have talked about for a while here at work is the fact that D/FW will be the biggest metro area in the U.S. before too long. The reason is that we aren't land constrained in any way. The top three metro areas are land constrained, many of the other metro areas in the top ten are also land constrained. It is one of the reasons why our real estate here is so cheap.
That's why I'm surprised the population/business development took as long as it has to get to this point.
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post #21 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 04:17 PM
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Getting back to oil prices, I did notice that they are down about $10 (from $145 ish to $135 ish) today. Something is definitely afoot.
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post #22 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 04:22 PM
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I don't know about the whole water deal. They could always run a pipeline to the Red River and get a ton of water. Storage capacity, well that could be an issue so maybe it could hinge from not having a place to store it in the years where we get little rainfall.

One thing that I have talked about for a while here at work is the fact that D/FW will be the biggest metro area in the U.S. before too long. The reason is that we aren't land constrained in any way. The top three metro areas are land constrained, many of the other metro areas in the top ten are also land constrained. It is one of the reasons why our real estate here is so cheap.

I could be wrong but it was my understanding that the Red River was to salty for human consumption. I remember reading this somewhere.

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post #23 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 04:54 PM
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Getting back to oil prices, I did notice that they are down about $10 (from $145 ish to $135 ish) today. Something is definitely afoot.
They are just reloading. Book the profit and let it start up again.
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post #24 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 04:58 PM
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I could be wrong but it was my understanding that the Red River was to salty for human consumption. I remember reading this somewhere.
Thats what i've heard as well. Hence the abundant striper population.

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post #25 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 05:05 PM
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Its not Dallas that is the problem as its population remains pretty constant it is all of the communities like little elm, McKinney, etc that are booming and all of them are pulling their water out of Lavon and Cooper. There was an article a few years back saying that Dallas could go a year without a drop of water. Unfortunately, everybody else in North Texas cannot.
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post #26 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 05:08 PM
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Thats what i've heard as well. Hence the abundant striper population.

It's easy to de-salinate......if we can do it with the seawater, I'd venture a guess that it could be done with the red river.

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post #27 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
They are just reloading. Book the profit and let it start up again.
Thats probably what they are doing . I got a PR this afternoon related to Ford about the price of oil going up next week and how the market is going to react . I hate fucking OIL !!!!
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post #28 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 05:24 PM
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"The world is now at the end of a 20-year energy cycle. From the mid-1980s to the middle of this decade, oil prices fell even as the world economy grew. A barrel of crude cost $68 in 1983 (adjusted for inflation) — and just $33 in 2003.

How did this happen? The high prices of the early 1980s gave producers an incentive to take more oil out of the ground and also gave consumers reason to use less of it. With supply growing quickly and demand growing less quickly, prices plummeted.

The low prices of the 1990s reversed those incentives. Americans fell in love with Hummers and pickup trucks, and the Chinese and Indian booms were fueled by cheap energy. Oil supplies, meanwhile, weren’t growing so quickly. To top it off, the decline of the dollar since 2001 has reduced Americans’ purchasing power. Without that fall, a barrel of oil would cost less than $110 today, rather than $141, according to Stephen P. A. Brown at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas."
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post #29 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 05:32 PM
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.
I'd believe all that shit if the price didn't just double in the last 12 months. If that was true we should have seen a gradual increase over the past 5 years which isn't the case.
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post #30 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 05:46 PM
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Originally Posted by AL P
I'd believe all that shit if the price didn't just double in the last 12 months. If that was true we should have seen a gradual increase over the past 5 years which isn't the case.
Pretty damn steady from 02 to 06. Man, Jan. 2002, rocked. lol

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post #31 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 05:51 PM
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Either way, speculative bubble or $ de-bubble, the end game is upon the oil market. Very similar action to the NASDAQ bubble. Steady increase, exponential increase, bubble pop, see ya'.




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post #32 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Pretty damn steady from 02 to 06. Man, Jan. 2002, rocked. lol

I was going to say, this chart only goes to 2006, I am interested in the last 12 months where it reached for the sky. That explosion has got to be going off anytime now. I wonder how far we need to drop before it happens. The $9 price drop is interesting but I think what we need is a fuckin panic.
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post #33 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 07:58 PM
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i can see that with how many people keep moving here...they should enforce the rules that they do in a drought (watering yards, etc), but as soon as it rains that goes out the window.
San Diego uses reuse water, reclaimed water. Insted of dumping reclaimed water in to a river or letting it evaperate they pump it back in to the community and people use it for outdoor use and landscape irrigation.
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post #34 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-08-2008, 10:04 PM
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San Diego uses reuse water, reclaimed water. Insted of dumping reclaimed water in to a river or letting it evaperate they pump it back in to the community and people use it for outdoor use and landscape irrigation.
Colorado does that too. "Greywater".

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post #35 of 35 (permalink) Old 07-09-2008, 10:15 AM
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Pickens has been behind the natural gas push for years and years, he is part of the reason you see all these natural gas wells poping up in DFW.

as far as the wind farms in west texas, its become big money out there.
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