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post #1 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 08:47 PM Thread Starter
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Front page WSJ tommorrow

Return of stagflation? Hope not but some of the young "life is good" peeps may want to do some history reading.

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The U.S. faces an unwelcome combination of looming recession and persistent inflation that is reviving angst about "stagflation," a condition not seen since the 1970s.

Inflation is rising. Yesterday the Labor Department said consumer prices in the U.S. jumped 0.4% in January and are up 4.3% over the past 12 months, near a 16-year high. Even stripping out sharply rising food and energy costs, prices rose 0.3% in January, driven by education, medical care, clothing and hotels. They are up by 2.5% from the previous year, a 10-month high.

The same day brought news that sparked worries of a deepening recession. The Federal Reserve disclosed that its policymakers lowered their forecast for economic growth this year to between 1.3% and 2%, half a percentage point below the level of their previous forecast, in October. They blamed a further intensification on the slump in housing prices, tighter lending standards and higher oil prices. They warned that should the economy's performance differ from its revised forecast, it would be more likely to fall short than outperform.

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post #2 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 09:57 PM
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Not again....

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post #3 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 11:01 PM
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post #4 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 11:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Return of stagflation? Hope not but some of the young "life is good" peeps may want to do some history reading.
Shit, I can tell you that dark times are ahead. Problem is, 98% of people period, young are just going to ignore it as long as possible.

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post #5 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 11:04 PM
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The economy has definitely hit a plateau in the last few months.

Are we in a recession?

The US Economy will go into Recession during 2008 contracts on Intrade closed up 2.3 points today, to end at 65.9.

It still seems like there may be some value there.

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post #6 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 11:14 PM
 
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"But... but... Sean Hannity told me the Bush economy is thriving." Laughed Bill Clinton.
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post #7 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-21-2008, 12:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpamp
"But... but... Sean Hannity told me the Bush economy is thriving." Laughed Bill Clinton.
Yeah, and the guy in your sig there wants to raise taxes. Raising taxes in rough economic times...sure, sounds great!
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post #8 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-21-2008, 12:18 AM
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we need to increase war spending
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post #9 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 02:53 PM
 
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Originally Posted by slow99
Yeah, and the guy in your sig there wants to raise taxes. Raising taxes in rough economic times...sure, sounds great!
But thats always the answer..raise taxes especially on the wealthy and people who invest! Then take the extra money and fund more government programs because those always work also! CHANGE CHANGE! thats what everyone will be left with from their paycheck when he gets done with it
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post #10 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 02:57 PM
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I hoped it was just a word that I learned in economics.
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post #11 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 03:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slow99
Yeah, and the guy in your sig there wants to raise taxes. Raising taxes in rough economic times...sure, sounds great!
Especially on the rich, that make over $50k a year.

1/19/09, the last day of Free America.
Pericles "Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it. "

"[T]he people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government and to reform, alter, or totally change the same when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it." --Samuel Adams


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post #12 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 03:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slow99
Yeah, and the guy in your sig there wants to raise taxes. Raising taxes in rough economic times...sure, sounds great!
Don't start talking economics to any of the youngsters on here, their eyes start to glaze over when you do that. I got a feeling that they are about to get educated though.

As for Obama, you got that shit right. Part of the thing that bothers me about the guy is who is the question of WHO going to pay for all this healthcare? That idea might be fine when the economy is booming and the feds are running a budget surplus.
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post #13 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 03:27 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P
Don't start talking economics to any of the youngsters on here, their eyes start to glaze over when you do that. I got a feeling that they are about to get educated though.

As for Obama, you got that shit right. Part of the thing that bothers me about the guy is who is going to pay for all this healthcare. That idea might be fine when the economy is booming and the feds are running a budget surplus.
I was talking to a bond dude this morning about the auction rate munis. Seems the state of NJ just got done paying 20-23% on their short term notes. lol

I think I'm going to float some money over to the munis. Default rate under 1% but all the bonds have been termed "sub-prime." lol.

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post #14 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 03:30 PM
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Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
I was talking to a bond dude this morning about the auction rate munis. Seems the state of NJ just got done paying 20-23% on their short term notes. lol

I think I'm going to float some money over to the munis. Default rate under 1% but all the bonds have been termed "sub-prime." lol.
Man that is an excellent idea.
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post #15 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 03:44 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P
Man that is an excellent idea.
Yea, my prosper.com portfolio is at 12% for A-/B paper and the default rate is about 4%.

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post #16 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 03:46 PM
 
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The funniest part is, is that McCain SAYS that he's not going to raise taxes, and you people buy it. Would you rather Obama lie? And did McCain not get the memo from George H. W. Bush, not to say anything about "no new taxes"? Learn a lesson, John.

(taxes will be raised. the war needs money.)
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post #17 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 03:47 PM
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So what do I need to do with my 401K guys? Right now I'm about 70% high risk...
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post #18 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 03:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpamp
The funniest part is, is that McCain SAYS that he's not going to raise taxes, and you people buy it. Would you rather Obama lie? And did McCain not get the memo from George H. W. Bush, not to say anything about "no new taxes"? Learn a lesson, John.

(taxes will be raised. the war needs money.)
Difference being that Obama thinks it is a GOOD IDEA to raise taxes to fund more government hand outs. Forget that part? Call me crazy but I am against government handouts during a recession. I'm sure you haven't thought about all that though.
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post #19 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Yea, my prosper.com portfolio is at 12% for A-/B paper and the default rate is about 4%.
You doing good over there? I been considering moving some money over there and taking a shot at it. What standards does the bank of 01WC use to determine creditworthiness over there?
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post #20 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 04:01 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpamp
The funniest part is, is that McCain SAYS that he's not going to raise taxes, and you people buy it. Would you rather Obama lie? And did McCain not get the memo from George H. W. Bush, not to say anything about "no new taxes"? Learn a lesson, John.

(taxes will be raised. the war needs money.)
ya' know what? I won't mind additional taxes if they are met with an offsetting reduction in government expenditures.

Not that I hate all democraps. Actually, in terms of economic policy, Clinton was pretty fucking good. He realized he had no clue and let the people that knew run the show. He sat back and got blow jobs.

Greenspan thought he was pretty good too during his tenure as far as the economy was concerned.

(note to all the neos... I'm talking economic policy here. Not sex in the oval office, military shit, or anything else.)

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post #21 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 04:05 PM
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Awesome advise guys. Thank you.
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post #22 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 04:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
I won't mind additional taxes if they are met with an offsetting reduction in government expenditures.
I kind of just gave up on that....
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post #23 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Fox466
Awesome advise guys. Thank you.
LOL

Leave it or buy more if the funds you are in have been performing fairly well recently. By the time you retire this shit will be just a blip on the chart.
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post #24 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 04:07 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P
Difference being that Obama thinks it is a GOOD IDEA to raise taxes to fund more government hand outs. Forget that part? Call me crazy but I am against government handouts during a recession. I'm sure you haven't thought about all that though.
Thank you! Beat me to it, there is a difference in raising taxes for a viable cause and raising taxes for a crack pot scheme gov't program that will do more harm then good.

If someone were to make me choose between raising taxes and not raising taxes obviously id pick not too! But if it had to be either raise taxes for cleansing the middle east of terrorism and raising taxes for a bullshit healthcare system...the choice is clear. I think every youngster just wants to feel like the hippies with vietnam..they want to feel like they matter when they really dont (atleast I can admit it lol). Get the fuck back in school and work towards helping society as a whole and not bitching about things that you cant quite understand. Its unfortunate that we have to help make the world a better place but someone has to..if every country does as they please we see take-overs, genocides, terrorism etc etc and eventually it makes its way to our land. So sit back and wait...or take initiative?
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post #25 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 04:07 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P
You doing good over there? I been considering moving some money over there and taking a shot at it. What standards does the bank of 01WC use to determine creditworthiness over there?
They do it all for you. I tend to stay with the AA/A/B paper and C/D I'll take a small shot on. I haven't taken a shot on the E/HR paper yet.

I think the key, for me at least, is to carry many loans. I never give out more than $250 per loan and spread it over 50-100 loans at a time. I'm currently sitting at 45 active loans and have 2 that defaulted (both were C paper).

It's fun shit that makes me feel like some important banker or something. lol.

I started about 18 months ago (?) with $50 per loan and slowly moved up. Prosper.com does all the credit reports (which you don't see but they rate the paper for you) and if they default they actually collect for you.

Here are some stats for you and you can see how lenders break up their portfolio. But, you will see that highest ROIs tend to have the shortest time there (their loans haven't defaulted yet, haha). You will also tend to see where the lenders with negative ROIs tend to have an average credit grade under C.

http://www.ericscc.com/index.php?page=lenders_by_roi2

I love the whole free market aspect of it.

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post #26 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 04:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
They do it all for you. I tend to stay with the AA/A/B paper and C/D I'll take a small shot on. I haven't taken a shot on the E/HR paper yet.

I think the key, for me at least, is to carry many loans. I never give out more than $250 per loan and spread it over 50-100 loans at a time. I'm currently sitting at 45 active loans and have 2 that defaulted (both were C paper).

It's fun shit that makes me feel like some important banker or something. lol.

I started about 18 months ago (?) with $50 per loan and slowly moved up. Prosper.com does all the credit reports (which you don't see but they rate the paper for you) and if they default they actually collect for you.

Here are some stats for you and you can see how lenders break up their portfolio. But, you will see that highest ROIs tend to have the shortest time there (their loans haven't defaulted yet, haha). You will also tend to see where the lenders with negative ROIs tend to have an average credit grade under C.

http://www.ericscc.com/index.php?page=lenders_by_roi2

I love the whole free market aspect of it.
Yea, i knew they did the collecting for you and the credit grading but wasn't sure if you applied a bullshit factor to their story or anything beyond those rankings.

I'll probably send a little change over there and try it out.
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post #27 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 06:02 PM
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That answered the question Al. I was talking with a guy who lived the last round of the 'stagflation' cycle and he indicates that it got esceedingly tight. I didn't really figure it would matter a great deal, but when it comes to the financial sector my lack of education is definitely a hindrance...
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post #28 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 07:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fox466
That answered the question Al. I was talking with a guy who lived the last round of the 'stagflation' cycle and he indicates that it got esceedingly tight. I didn't really figure it would matter a great deal, but when it comes to the financial sector my lack of education is definitely a hindrance...
Some of us lived thru it during the carter administration. You wanna talk about depressing times.....
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post #29 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 07:30 PM
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Some of us lived thru it during the carter administration. You wanna talk about depressing times.....

No shit. I remember sitting in the gas line all day to just get five gallons. Those days are coming again. And soon I'm afraid.
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post #30 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 11:01 PM
 
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No shit. I remember sitting in the gas line all day to just get five gallons. Those days are coming again. And soon I'm afraid.
No way, those days aren't coming again. The economy under the Bush administration has FLOURISHED!! It's wonderful!

What will be nice, is... since the Conservative talking heads blamed a bum economy on Clinton for the first 4 years of the Bush administration (some STILL blame Clinton), we can put the next 4 years on Bush no matter what! Weeee!

And I remember the Carter days, too. I remember being 4, and thinking about the economy.
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post #31 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 11:22 PM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpamp
No way, those days aren't coming again. The economy under the Bush administration has FLOURISHED!! It's wonderful!

What will be nice, is... since the Conservative talking heads blamed a bum economy on Clinton for the first 4 years of the Bush administration (some STILL blame Clinton), we can put the next 4 years on Bush no matter what! Weeee!

And I remember the Carter days, too. I remember being 4, and thinking about the economy.
Like I said, Bill "I need a blow job" Clinton did a good job with the economy because he stepped aside. He actually was smart.

Carter was smart because he continued Ford's deregulation of industry (those that are old enough will remember every fucking industry was regulated back then.)

What I will say is... who ever is elected over the next four years is... well... fucked. Seriously fucked. Because there isn't anything the next President will be able to do (Bernanke isn't gonna be able to do crap, Greenspan knew when to get out.)

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post #32 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-22-2008, 11:29 PM
 
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Didn't Greenspan say something about investing in the Euro?

I met a girl the other day who's dad owns a plant that makes lubricants for wires. He's selling it to someone in Germany, because it's cheaper to own and do it all here, than with the Euro that's worth more (the German company will be saving a TON).

America is the new India. haha
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post #33 of 33 (permalink) Old 02-23-2008, 12:00 AM Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gpamp
Didn't Greenspan say something about investing in the Euro?

I met a girl the other day who's dad owns a plant that makes lubricants for wires. He's selling it to someone in Germany, because it's cheaper to own and do it all here, than with the Euro that's worth more (the German company will be saving a TON).

America is the new India. haha
I haven't heard about Greenspan and the Euro, but in 08 I wouldn't touch the Euro against the dolla.

Although I've seen some signs that Europe may be decoupling from the US. If I feel it has fully decoupled I've move some dollars to Euro. Euro has had quite a run over the past 5 or so years... might be time for some stabilization.l

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