Nouriel Roubini: America's economy risks the mother of all meltdowns - DFWstangs Forums
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
post #1 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-19-2008, 03:19 PM Thread Starter
IA2
 
mikeb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 22,413
Exclamation Nouriel Roubini: America's economy risks the mother of all meltdowns

Maybe some of you financial guys can translate this to english for us mere mortal people. Sure sounds troubling.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080219/...6c_RfR1f0E1vAI
mikeb is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-19-2008, 05:16 PM
Married Man on 14Feb2010
 
TexasDevilDog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Fort Worth, Texas (North Side)
Posts: 14,140
Basically, the Federal Reserve is trying to save the banks. It can not let them fail or we will be in a depression. They are cutting the interest rate and making it cheaper for them to borrow money to maintain reserve requirements and liquitiy. But the Federal can not force banks to lower the cost of loans to us or even give loans at all. Banks are raising rates and standards to get loans. They want to keep their money short term invested to stem losses when they have to write down more loans.

Even though the Fed is cutting short term rates, the long term rates are going up. The 10yrd treasury is at the highest since Jan 2nd 2008. Mortgage rates are going up. New York port authority had a bond sale fail this week and its interest rates went to 20%. Wisconsin had its bond go to 10%.

The Fed will have to cut rate again soon and deeper. As the Fed lowers rates it will cause the dollar to fall more. That will cause everything we import (oil) to go up in price. This is the invisible inflation tax on everyone to spread the pain around.
TexasDevilDog is offline  
post #3 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-19-2008, 05:26 PM
Lifer
 
Ylw 98~~SNAKE~~'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: DFW
Posts: 13,083
hmmm that doesnt sound to good

98 Brokra
Ylw 98~~SNAKE~~ is offline  
 
post #4 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-19-2008, 05:36 PM
Worship me
 
AL P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 34,345
Then after the pricks in the banking industry feel like they are covered the Fed will have to come in and raise rates like crazy to kill the inflation they have created. Hello 1983.

The article is interesting but one step involves a commercial property meltdown and that just isn't happening right now. Mostly there are people who are sitting on assets to see what happens. Of course we'll have some that can't get refinanced and will have to sell eventually.
AL P is offline  
post #5 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-19-2008, 05:53 PM
Married Man on 14Feb2010
 
TexasDevilDog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Fort Worth, Texas (North Side)
Posts: 14,140
The Federal Reserve fears deflation

Most people don't know that Japan went through stock market bubble bust in 1990 and a real estate bubble bust in 1991. Housing prices declined year after year, turning the economy in to a deflationary spirl. The houses prices declined for 13 or 14 years in a row, losing 60-some% of their values.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-in-sight.html

The Japanese market (NIKKEI 225) that is at 13,757-ish peaked in 1990 at 40,000-something.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my
TexasDevilDog is offline  
post #6 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-19-2008, 10:33 PM Thread Starter
IA2
 
mikeb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 22,413
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasDevilDog
Most people don't know that Japan went through stock market bubble bust in 1990 and a real estate bubble bust in 1991. Housing prices declined year after year, turning the economy in to a deflationary spirl. The houses prices declined for 13 or 14 years in a row, losing 60-some% of their values.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-in-sight.html

The Japanese market (NIKKEI 225) that is at 13,757-ish peaked in 1990 at 40,000-something.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my
"the lost decade"
mikeb is offline  
post #7 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-19-2008, 10:41 PM
No Cerveza... No Trabajo
 
01WhiteCobra's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Where's my beer?
Posts: 21,924
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasDevilDog
Most people don't know that Japan went through stock market bubble bust in 1990 and a real estate bubble bust in 1991. Housing prices declined year after year, turning the economy in to a deflationary spirl. The houses prices declined for 13 or 14 years in a row, losing 60-some% of their values.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-in-sight.html

The Japanese market (NIKKEI 225) that is at 13,757-ish peaked in 1990 at 40,000-something.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EN225&t=my
Not to mention they have the largest population over 65 of any industrialized nation and the lowest birth rate. In fact I think the net birth figure is negative (more people in Japan die each day then are born)

My 401K is now a 400K (was 301K)
01WhiteCobra is offline  
post #8 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 04:58 AM
Lifer
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Ellis County
Posts: 18,370
Quote:
Originally Posted by 01WhiteCobra
Not to mention they have the largest population over 65 of any industrialized nation and the lowest birth rate. In fact I think the net birth figure is negative (more people in Japan die each day then are born)
A shrinking populace doesn't promote "new-home" sales at all.

CHL holder and Conservative...AKA "Domestic Terrorist"
Vertnut is offline  
post #9 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 08:21 AM
Lifer
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,249
Does anyone expect home loan rates to continue to rise over the next 2 months?
FSON is offline  
post #10 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 10:07 AM
Lifer
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Ellis County
Posts: 18,370
I do. They've gained .5% in the last 2 weeks.

CHL holder and Conservative...AKA "Domestic Terrorist"
Vertnut is offline  
post #11 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 11:05 AM
Worship me
 
AL P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 34,345
It is really a question of "how much will lenders try and fuck people".

Keep in mind they want to cash in on the refinance boom.
AL P is offline  
post #12 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 12:26 PM
Frequent Flyer
 
AdamLX's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Frisco, TX
Posts: 9,148
Quote:
Originally Posted by AL P
It is really a question of "how much will lenders try and fuck people".

Keep in mind they want to cash in on the refinance boom.
Bingo.

I will tell you this, I watch the 10 yr T-Bill and expect rate flucuations accordingly. However, I've watched rates increase without much movement of the yield and now with the yield staying steady, they have actually cut our rates down a little bit today (twice actually).

What I'm getting at is I believe a larger margin is being established and they are going to slowly cut down the rate until they see applications pick back up and find a happy medium to which they can make back lost revenue.

Basically, only putting it half way in the consumer's collective ass.
AdamLX is offline  
post #13 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 07:14 PM
Secular Dogooderist
 
Zarathustra's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: The Hive
Posts: 3,031
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamLX
Bingo.

I will tell you this, I watch the 10 yr T-Bill and expect rate flucuations accordingly. However, I've watched rates increase without much movement of the yield and now with the yield staying steady, they have actually cut our rates down a little bit today (twice actually).

What I'm getting at is I believe a larger margin is being established and they are going to slowly cut down the rate until they see applications pick back up and find a happy medium to which they can make back lost revenue.

Basically, only putting it half way in the consumer's collective ass.
That's okay though, just the tip will do just fine.

Keep in mind here guys, the federal reserve, or federal bank, is NOT part of the federal government. Many people will mistake if for a government entity, whereas in reality it is run by the nations most elite corporate fascists. Discuss...

Thus Spoke Zarathustra
---
This will help everyone out, check it.
It is time we acknowledged a basic feature of human discourse: when considering the truth of a proposition, one is either engaged in an honest appraisal of the evidence and logical arguments, or one is not. Religion is the one area of our lives where people imagine that some other standard of intellectual integrity applies.
-Sam Harris
Zarathustra is offline  
post #14 of 14 (permalink) Old 02-20-2008, 07:28 PM
Aspiring Bean Counter.
 
Slowhand's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Howard Johnson's Earthlight Room
Posts: 12,279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zarathustra
That's okay though, just the tip will do just fine.

Keep in mind here guys, the federal reserve, or federal bank, is NOT part of the federal government. Many people will mistake if for a government entity, whereas in reality it is run by the nations most elite corporate fascists. Discuss...
lmao! i'm not even sure what to say that. being someone who is extremely fond of academia, I'm surprised that you're not praising the virtues of those in control of the Fed. they're often among the top of their fields in the academic world.

not to mention that the fed is a private/government entity, so I don't know where you're going with your statement. it generally operates generally independently of the government and receives no congressional funding, but the government has plenty of say in what goes on.

please, tell me more about your conspiracy theory of how 'elite coporate fascists run the Fed'. I'm open to ideas, but I'm not going to blindly follow like you do.

Slowhand is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Reply

Bookmarks

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the DFWstangs Forums forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in










Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode



Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome