A rather depressing economic assessment from pat buchanan

[mikeb]

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/staticarticles/article59693.html

Thoughts? Comments?

[89gt-stanger]

We already give enough money to "ILLEGAL" fucking immigrants. The damn government needs to kick them off fucking well-fare and make them get the fuck out of this country. If they don't want to come here the right way, then they can kiss Uncle Sam's ass all the way back across the border... oh wait, the government IS sending money over there too..... careless waste.

quite frankly, i absolutely HaTe the idea of the gov. taking MY money and giving it to poor people that can't make a living for them selves.

this is a democracy, not a god-damn socialist country

[mikeb]

We already give enough money to "ILLEGAL" fucking immigrants. The damn government needs to kick them off fucking well-fare and make them get the fuck out of this country. If they don't want to come here the right way, then they can kiss Uncle Sam's ass all the way back across the border... oh wait, the government IS sending money over there too..... careless waste.

quite frankly, i absolutely HaTe the idea of the gov. taking MY money and giving it to poor people that can't make a living for them selves.

this is a democracy, not a god-damn socialist country

While I agree with you, it's a little bigger than that.

It is a simple principle. Spend more than you make and eventually you wind up broke and owing money to someone. The US has done this with abandon and now we are in the position of owing a lot of money to a lot of countries, with a currency that is falling in value. The US dollar used to be the gold standard as far as safety, rock solid. No longer, and the current situation is not sustainable long term. When we default on the debt there is likely going to be a war, or economic chaos in the US. We are a debtor nation.

[89gt-stanger]

While I agree with you, it's a little bigger than that.

It is a simple principal. Spend more than you make and eventually you wind up broke and owing money to someone. The US has done this with abandon and now we are in the position of owing a lot of money to a lot of countries. Not sustainable. When we default on the debt there is likely going to be a war, or economic chaos in the US. We are a debtor nation.

We may owe a lot of $cash$, but I don't think that we neccesarily pay back in the form of 'tax-payer' dollars.

Yes we are definitely in the shitter when it comes to "debts" to others countries. But on the contrary, as i was saying, we are throwing away a lot of money for no benefit to use. We are basically inviting people to come in, work, not pay taxes, send it back to their country, and screw us.

and the guest woker program is a joke. This is when bush needs to be more republican.

[mikeb]

We may owe a lot of $cash$, but I don't think that we neccesarily pay back in the form of 'tax-payer' dollars.

Yes we are definitely in the shitter when it comes to "debts" to others countries. But on the contrary, as i was saying, we are throwing away a lot of money for no benefit to use. We are basically inviting people to come in, work, not pay taxes, send it back to their country, and screw us.

and the guest woker program is a joke. This is when bush needs to be more republican.

There is no doubt that the US is wasting tax dollars.

I disagree with you on a guest worker program. If they are going to be here then let's know who is in the country, and lets make the employers pay the appropriate taxes on them, instead of just handing them cash. In fact, my idea of a guest worker program is that the employer must carry health insurance for each guest worker and must supply transportation for each of them. A special levy should be imposed on the employer for each guest worker with a child in a public school. If the employers insist on this kind of labor, then make them cover the ancillary costs of them being here. The government should supply a way to document each worker; if an employer is found using workers that are not in the "system" then the workers are permanently kicked out of the country, and the employer gets punished with fines or license/permit revocation.

[89gt-stanger]

There is no doubt that the US is wasting tax dollars.

I disagree with you on a guest worker program. If they are going to be here then let's know who is in the country, and lets make the employers pay the appropriate taxes on them, instead of just handing them cash. In fact, my idea of a guest worker program is that the employer must carry health insurance for each guest worker and must supply transportation for each of them. A special levy should be imposed on the employer for each guest worker with a child in a public school. If the employers insist on this kind of labor, then make them cover the ancillary costs of them being here. The government should supply a way to document each worker; if an employer is found using workers that are not in the "system" then the workers are permanently kicked out of the country, and the employer gets punished with fines or license/permit revocation.

I see what your saying, but it is like making a nice salmon dinner out of a goldfish.

1. Employers are not going to "waste" there time over maybe 1-2 workers, i wouldn't.

2. Providing transportation is like becoming a parent. And if i had to pay for a car/moped/bus fare for a immigrant, i wouldn't.(just like you wouldn't for me)

3. on the note of kids, if they can't afford to live where they are and support a family, keep your legs closed.

you said "If the employers insist on this kind of labor, then make them cover the ancillary costs of them being here."

this makes sense, like you say, if the employer wants to spend all this x-tra cash on a worker.

i will now tell you mainly why this won't work.

say you work at a McDonalds franchise. You had just come from lets say..morocco. You have 4 children.

(implying that your program is in effect) a illegal guest worker starts to work there. Yalls boss give this illegal alien a car, money for his kids, (on top of gov. aid), and some costs of living.

and you, the law abiding citizen, wanting to do right, get no benifits. how fair is that. Basically, it is rewarding "bad" behavior.

[Geor!]

Scary.
Real.

[black01gt]

There is no doubt that the US is wasting tax dollars.

I disagree with you on a guest worker program. If they are going to be here then let's know who is in the country, and lets make the employers pay the appropriate taxes on them, instead of just handing them cash. In fact, my idea of a guest worker program is that the employer must carry health insurance for each guest worker and must supply transportation for each of them. A special levy should be imposed on the employer for each guest worker with a child in a public school. If the employers insist on this kind of labor, then make them cover the ancillary costs of them being here. The government should supply a way to document each worker; if an employer is found using workers that are not in the "system" then the workers are permanently kicked out of the country, and the employer gets punished with fines or license/permit revocation.
Hmmm...you just solved the illegal immigration crisis.

Employer accountability = no cheap labor
no cheap labor = no jobs waiting
no jobs waiting = no need to cross the river

Adios muchachos!!!

[mikeb]

I see what your saying, but it is like making a nice salmon dinner out of a goldfish.

1. Employers are not going to "waste" there time over maybe 1-2 workers, i wouldn't.

2. Providing transportation is like becoming a parent. And if i had to pay for a car/moped/bus fare for a immigrant, i wouldn't.(just like you wouldn't for me)

3. on the note of kids, if they can't afford to live where they are and support a family, keep your legs closed.

you said "If the employers insist on this kind of labor, then make them cover the ancillary costs of them being here."

this makes sense, like you say, if the employer wants to spend all this x-tra cash on a worker.

i will now tell you mainly why this won't work.

say you work at a McDonalds franchise. You had just come from lets say..morocco. You have 4 children.

(implying that your program is in effect) a illegal guest worker starts to work there. Yalls boss give this illegal alien a car, money for his kids, (on top of gov. aid), and some costs of living.

and you, the law abiding citizen, wanting to do right, get no benifits. how fair is that. Basically, it is rewarding "bad" behavior.

Employers will toe the line when there is jail time involved for not toeing the line.

[mikeb]

Hmmm...you just solved the illegal immigration crisis.

Employer accountability = no cheap labor
no cheap labor = no jobs waiting
no jobs waiting = no need to cross the river

Adios muchachos!!!

Yep, make them pay closer to the true cost of the labor and maybe it is not so attractive after all :)

[89gt-stanger]

Employers will toe the line when there is jail time involved for not toeing the line.

most employers don't wanna dick around with the illegals. Would you? especially if there is no profit lol

[89gt-stanger]

Hmmm...you just solved the illegal immigration crisis.

Employer accountability = no cheap labor
no cheap labor = no jobs waiting
no jobs waiting = no need to cross the river

Adios muchachos!!!

So what does your smart-ass think about this?

[black01gt]

So what does your smart-ass think about this?
I wrote it. What do you think I think about it? It's the "cheap labor" part that our government can't give up. Doesn't bode well for us does it?

[89gt-stanger]

I wrote it. It's the "cheap labor" that our government can't get over. Doesn't bode well for us does it?


sorry, i thought you were being smart-ass and shit. still, s a buisness man myself, i wouldn't mess with that area of "illegal"s

[mikeb]

most employers don't wanna dick around with the illegals. Would you? especially if there is no profit lol

Well, someone is employing them since they keep coming. That is why I think that a government guest worker verification program is important. It serves to immunize employers who abide by the program's rules, and verifies potential employees before putting them to work (ie: the guest workers are registered in the program, and the employer is guaranteed immunity because they checked the worker). We know what guest workers are working on US soil. The stick is that if such a program existed then the employer would be well advised to participate in it at the risk of severe fines or jail time if caught employing illegal labor. My idea of forcing the employers to subsidize health care and transportation is a kind of stick to make domestic labor more attractive, and to help fund the cost of having a guest worker here should they choose to use that kind of labor.

As a business owner all I want is a fair playing field. An employer that is using illegal labor gets a price break over one that is playing by the rules, and pockets the difference in "profit". That is rotten, and unfair in my book.

[black01gt]

sorry, i thought you were being smart-ass and shit. still, s a buisness man myself, i wouldn't mess with that area of "illegal"s
My company employs documented immigrants and they're good workers. Not a problem.
Every immigrant in this country HAS to be located and documented. When they become citizens then they should have entitlements. Not until.

Birthright citizenship should also be no more.

[89gt-stanger]

Birthright citizenship should also be no more.

100% agreed.

[mikeb]

I might also add that if we had a guest worker program then any guest worker caught operating outside of the program would be banned for life from ever participating in the program, would be evicted from the US, and would be subject to jail time if caught on US soil again. This is the stick for the workers in the program, and should encourage participation in the program.

[black01gt]

I might also add that if we had a guest worker program then any guest worker caught operating outside of the program would be banned for life from ever participating in the program, would be evicted from the US, and would be subject to jail time if caught on US soil again. This is the stick for the workers in the program, and should encourage participation in the program.
If our government continues to say these laws can't be enforced they are admitting to being over run by forigners. Step aside amatuers!!! :cool: We're taking our country back.

[32VfromHell]

Since it began to give credit ratings to nations in 1917, Moody's has rated the United States triple-A. U.S. Treasury bonds have been seen as the most secure investment on earth. When crises erupt, nervous money seeks out the world's great safe harbor, the United States. That reputation is now in peril.

Last week, Moody's warned that if the United States fails to rein in the soaring cost of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the nation's credit rating will be down-graded within a decade.

Our political parties seem oblivious. Republicans, save Ron Paul, are all promising to expand the U.S. military and maintain all of our worldwide commitments to defend and subsidize scores of nations.

Democrats, with entitlement costs drowning the federal budget in red ink, are proposing a new entitlement – universal health coverage for the near 50 million who do not have it – another magnet for illegal aliens. Moody's is telling America it needs a time of austerity, while the U.S. government is behaving like the governments we used to bail out.

California has already hit the wall. With an economy as large as a G-8 nation, the Golden State is looking at a $14 billion deficit in 2009 and a $3 billion shortfall in 2008. Gov. Schwarzenegger has called for slashing prison staff by 6,000, including 2,000 guards, early release of 22,000 inmates, closing four dozen state parks and a 10 percent across-the-board cut in all state agencies. The Democratic legislature is demanding tax hikes, which would drive more taxpayers back over the mountains whence their fathers came.

Meanwhile, Washington drifts mindlessly toward the maelstrom. With the dollar sinking, oil surging to $100 a barrel, the Dow having its worst January in memory, foreclosures mounting, credit card debt going rotten, and consumers and businesses unable or unwilling to borrow, we appear headed into recession.

If so, tax revenue will fall and spending on unemployment will surge. The price of the stimulus packages both parties are preparing will further add to the deficit and further imperil the U.S. credit rating. This all comes in the year that the first of the baby boomers, born in 1946, reach early retirement and eligibility for Social Security.

To stave off recession, the Fed appears anxious to slash interest rates another half-point, if not more. That will further weaken the dollar and raise the costs of the imports to which we have become addicted. While all this is bad news for the Republicans, it is worse news for the republic. As we save nothing, we must borrow both to pay for the imported oil and foreign manufactures upon which we have become dependent.

We are thus in the position of having to borrow from Europe to defend Europe, of having to borrow from China and Japan to defend Chinese and Japanese access to Gulf oil, and of having to borrow from Arab emirs, sultans and monarchs to make Iraq safe for democracy.

We borrow from the nations we defend so that we may continue to defend them. To question this is an unpardonable heresy called "isolationism."

And the chickens of globalism are coming home to roost.

We let Europe to get away with imposing value-added taxes averaging 15 percent on our exports to them, while they rebate that value-added tax on their exports to us. Thus, the euro has almost doubled in value against the dollar in the Bush years, as NATO Europe begins to bail out on Iraq and Afghanistan.

We sat still as Japan protected her markets and dumped high quality goods into ours and China undervalued its currency to suck jobs, technology and factories out of the United States. Now, China and Japan have $2 trillion in cash reserves. The Arabs have an equal amount of petrodollars. Both are headed here to spend their depreciating dollars snapping up U.S. assets – banks, ports, highways, defense contractors.

America, to pay her bills, has begun to sell herself to the world.

Its balance sheet gutted by the subprime mortgage crisis, Citicorp got a $7.5 billion injection from Abu Dhabi and is now fishing for $1 billion from Kuwait and $9 billion from China. Beijing has put $5 billion into Morgan Stanley and bought heavily into Barclays Bank.

Merrill-Lynch, ravaged by subprime mortgage losses, sold part of itself to Singapore for $7.5 billion and is seeking another $3 billion to $4 billion from the Arabs. Swiss-based UBS, taking a near $15 billion write-down in subprime mortgages, has gotten an infusion of $10 billion from Singapore.

Bain Capital is partnering with China's Huawei Technologies in a buyout of 3Com, the U.S. company that provides the technology that protects Pentagon computers from Chinese hackers.

This self-indulgent generation has borrowed itself into unpayable debt. Now the folks from whom we borrowed to buy all that oil and all those cars, electronics and clothes are coming to buy the country we inherited. We are prodigal sons, and the day of reckoning approaches.

(thats the article to those who cant view the link, and i completely agree. its sobering)

[01WhiteCobra]

We already give enough money to "ILLEGAL" fucking immigrants. The damn government needs to kick them off fucking well-fare and make them get the fuck out of this country. If they don't want to come here the right way, then they can kiss Uncle Sam's ass all the way back across the border... oh wait, the government IS sending money over there too..... careless waste.

quite frankly, i absolutely HaTe the idea of the gov. taking MY money and giving it to poor people that can't make a living for them selves.

this is a democracy, not a god-damn socialist country

Read my gold thread. It has nothing to do with the "fucking illegals". If anything the "fucking illegals" have kept the farce going.

Shit happened along time ago. Jose ain't got nothing to do with it.

[01WhiteCobra]

89gt-stanger, forgot one thing. Sometimes it is best to just not type instead of making yourself looking clueless.

[01WhiteCobra]

Oh, last thing for this thread. One of the last people I'd take economic advice from is Pat Fucking Buchanan.

If you want a no-nonsense, non-political view of the economy... read this daily.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

Here is the bio of the writer:


Hi, I'm Barry Ritholtz. I'm the CEO and Director for Equity Research for Fusion IQ, an independent quant research firm.

The topics under our watchful gaze include digital media, retail, energy, technology, and other related topics.

In addition to this blog, I publish regularly at TheStreet.com. I am a guest blogger at Roubini's Global Economics, and our research is also carried on Seeking Alpha.

If I'd enjoyed writing dry, unimaginative prose . . . well, than I'd still be practicing law. So if you're looking for dry, run-of-the-mill market observations, you've come to the wrong place -- Expect the unexpected.

If you stopped by to peruse the archives of those very same market comments, they are linked. Looking for my biography, professional resume, or other writings? They're also linked nearby.

In addition to my financial writings, I address a wide range of other issues -- technology, music, automobiles, politics, modern society -- just about anything that gets me going is fair game.

This modest blog started as an experiment; You can look forward to sharp graphics and zero multimedia. (Hey, your time is valuable). As long as you're here anyway, you might as well click around a bit.

If you've got something to say, then by all means please do.

[mikeb]

Oh, last thing for this thread. One of the last people I'd take economic advice from is Pat Fucking Buchanan.

If you want a no-nonsense, non-political view of the economy... read this daily.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

Here is the bio of the writer:

Yeah, pat has his agenda but I ran across that on drudge and thought it might make for some interesting discussion here.

[KJ94GT]

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/staticarticles/article59693.html

Thoughts? Comments?
I think the article was well-written, regardless of who wrote it. It's full of good information and from what I know, most of what is written in their is true.

It's definitely a scary time. We need to stop importing everything, put more Americans to work in American factories on American soil and move to an isolationist mindset. Most won't like this, but it's really the only way we can sustain our way of life.

The part about borrowing from Europe to defend Europe... borrowing from China to defend China's oil rights in the Middle East, etc... WTF? They should be paying us to do these things.

[01WhiteCobra]

Another... non-angle article concerning the current situation which coincides with what I was writing about in the gold analysis thread. Without a gold standard, the standard of living is created via credit. Time to pay the piper for 30+ years of expanding money supply and credit.

Americans pay for housing boom's excess
Wednesday, January 16, 2008 3:42:00 PM


NEW YORK (AP) - The bill for America's excessive borrowing during the housing boom has arrived, and more people are having trouble paying it.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., two of the nation's biggest banks, on Wednesday joined a growing chorus warning that the subprime mortgage mess is just the start of a sweeping lending crisis. And some fear that consumers falling behind on all kinds of loan payments could tip the economy's scale toward recession.

Strapped consumers are having a tough time making payments on credit cards, home-equity loans, and even for their cars. This has caused three of the top five U.S. commercial banks that have already reported damaging fourth-quarter results to set aside some $12.5 billion to cover future loan losses -- and that number will likely grow as the year wears on.

Problems in the subprime mortgage market are rapidly spilling over into other areas of the economy. No matter what the experts call it -- a recession, slowdown or even the makings of a depression -- it's clear banks are under mounting pressure to be more cautious about lending.

'If consumption growth stagnates, the odds of a recession are incredibly high,' said Andrew Bernard, director of the Center for International Business at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. 'All the pieces of household financial health are starting to be shakier, especially at the low end.'

He and others are paying close attention to what top U.S. banks say about their customers' payment habits. Many view this as an early indicator about where the overall economy is headed, but there are other signs that are troublesome.

The stock market has had its worst start to the year in three decades, with investors rattled by signs from the Labor Department that unemployment is on the rise and retail sales are on the decline. Further, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that higher costs for energy and food in 2007 pushed inflation for the year up by the largest amount in 17 years.

There was no sign of a turnaround in the last few months of the year. The Federal Reserve reported that the economy grew at a slower pace in late November and December as credit problems intensified and consumers tightened their spending.

To some, it appears that the Fed came to its rate-cutting decision in August a bit too late. Others point to the falling dollar and surging oil prices, factors that usually prevent the central bank from easing its monetary policy.

While debate persists about the Fed's timing and the extent of the slowdown, bank executives -- who have scrambled to prepare for another tumble in home prices and higher unemployment in 2008, feel academic definitions are beside the point.

'We're not predicting a recession -- it's not our job -- but we're prepared,' JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told analysts after the nation's third-largest bank wrote down $1.3 billion and said profit dropped 34 percent.

His financial institution didn't do all that bad. Rival Citigroup Inc. fared the worst during the fourth quarter, losing $9.83 billion after writing down the value of its portfolio of mortgage and mortgage-backed products by $18.1 billion.

Wells Fargo, a more traditional bank that avoided last year's trading woes, saw its profit fall 38 percent due to troubles with home equity loan and mortgage defaults.

JPMorgan is girding for home prices to decline further in 2008 by 5 percent to 10 percent; Citigroup's estimate of 7 percent falls within that range, too.

'The banks are the infrastructure for everything, the heartbeat of the market,' said Chris Johnson, president of Johnson Research Group. 'They need to be fixed before the market, and economy, can move forward with confidence. They need to get all their dirty laundry out there.'

Banks and card companies like American Express Co. -- which warned last week that it would add $440 million to loan loss provisions -- said in the regions where home prices are declining, card default rates are rising faster. The same goes for auto loans, subprime mortgages and home equity loans in these areas, which include Florida, Michigan and California.

A big reason for the rise in credit card default rates is that they are returning to more usual levels following a change in bankruptcy law that sent rates lower for a time. But the fact that more losses are being seen in the weaker parts of the country shows the increase is economically driven as well.

Analysts believe this means one thing: Consumers will be the ones paying for years of lax lending standards by U.S. financial institutions. Many will become more restrictive about who gets credit in a bid to stem future losses -- and that could curb consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.

'We've pushed the envelope,' Johnson said. 'Along with the joy of a market that goes as high as ours is the agony of when it starts to correct itself.'

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[Sean88gt]

If you allow it to depress you it will. We've managed to grow in a down economy and are still moving forward as if we are going to continue to grow. We are also still small enough that we can take a hit and continue. I'm getting ready to build a house as well.

PB makes some valid points, but at the end of the article you want to pull the dirt over your head. It doesn't inspire confidence, it harvests fear. We are in a mess right now as a country and we have to dig ourselves out.

[01WhiteCobra]

If you allow it to depress you it will. We've managed to grow in a down economy and are still moving forward as if we are going to continue to grow. We are also still small enough that we can take a hit and continue. I'm getting ready to build a house as well.

PB makes some valid points, but at the end of the article you want to pull the dirt over your head. It doesn't inspire confidence, it harvests fear. We are in a mess right now as a country and we have to dig ourselves out.

We're not contracting either and we're 100% B2B and largely automotive (at least yet!)

We'll develop some new products this year and put them in the market so we'll get a little boost.

The warning signs have been around for quite some time.

[Sean88gt]

We're not contracting either and we're 100% B2B and largely automotive (at least yet!)

We'll develop some new products this year and put them in the market so we'll get a little boost.

The warning signs have been around for quite some time.

We've managed to not get any loans to this point and have built this business on a cash basis. We buy equipment, pay for buildings, improvements, etc out of our corporate pocket. We are still developing new products and moving forward. The economy needs to correct itself, and if left alone, it will! Due to some horrific decisions when I was younger, my wife and I lived on a cash basis. If we couldn't afford it, we didn't buy it. This is not a bad thing. A lot of people will go through this and after the initial hit it will balance out. Everyone just needs to let it happen, prepare for the worst, hope for the best and it won't be near as bad as it is being made out to be.

[01WhiteCobra]

We've managed to not get any loans to this point and have built this business on a cash basis. We buy equipment, pay for buildings, improvements, etc out of our corporate pocket. We are still developing new products and moving forward. The economy needs to correct itself, and if left alone, it will! Due to some horrific decisions when I was younger, my wife and I lived on a cash basis. If we couldn't afford it, we didn't buy it. This is not a bad thing. A lot of people will go through this and after the initial hit it will balance out. Everyone just needs to let it happen, prepare for the worst, hope for the best and it won't be near as bad as it is being made out to be.

Yep. For the meantime the US consumer is king in the world.

I'm just trying to figure out how to take advantage of the shakeout which I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. Still alot of secrets being held...

[mikeb]

One of my business partners made the observation that it is an election year and that the press is liberal, it is in their best interest to print gloom and doom articles to make the economy be an election year item to help the dems. I hadn't thought of that, but I could certainly see it being a possibility.

Our generation has never seen truly hard economic times, instead we complain about not being able to find a wii and that we hate our jobs. When I look back on what people had to deal with during the great depression it is obvious to me that our generation is not made of what those people were made of. If the bottom does ever fall out of the economy we may get to learn some of the lessons that the depression people learned, and we may begin to appreciate the important things in life like health, having a roof over our heads, having a job, having close family ties, and having food to eat. Hopefully we'll never get to that point in our lives, but I have to wonder what point we will get to given the ever increasing US debt level.

[Sean88gt]

Short the dow;)

I know where you are coming from. I'm trying to formulate a plan to profit off of the fear.

[01WhiteCobra]

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/14/business/20080114_SPEND_GRAPHIC.jpg

[Sean88gt]

One of my business partners made the observation that it is an election year and that the press is liberal, it is in their best interest to print gloom and doom articles to make the economy be an election year item to help the dems. I hadn't thought of that, but I could certainly see it being a possibility.

Our generation has never seen truly hard economic times, instead we complain about not being able to find a wii and that we hate our jobs. When I look back on what people had to deal with during the great depression it is obvious to me that our generation is not made of what those people were made of. If the bottom does ever fall out of the economy we may get to learn some of the lessons that the depression people learned, and we may begin to appreciate the important things in life like health, having a roof over our heads, having a job, having close family ties, and having food to eat. Hopefully that will never happen, but I have to wonder what might happen given the ever increasing US debt level.

I could see that being the case. And the best way to teach people to be the greatest generation is to force them to build character. Character is built by learning how to deal with and overcome hard situations.

The only choice a lot people would have is to give up or push through. I think small business owners learn in a very hard environment how to push through, how to fight, how to not give up when that is all you want to do.

[mikeb]

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/14/business/20080114_SPEND_GRAPHIC.jpg

The individual increasing rate of each item is quite interesting. You would think that people would pay their mortgages before their credit cards, unless they know that they need the card to keep living off of I guess.

[mikeb]

The only choice a lot people would have is to give up or push hrough. I think small business owners learn in a very hard environment how to push through, how to fight, how to not give up when that is all you want to do.

I know that i'm still learning lessons in this area :o But we have made it through some horribly tough times over the years by tightening up the old belt a few notches.

[01WhiteCobra]

One of my business partners made the observation that it is an election year and that the press is liberal, it is in their best interest to print gloom and doom articles to make the economy be an election year item to help the dems. I hadn't thought of that, but I could certainly see it being a possibility.

Our generation has never seen truly hard economic times, instead we complain about not being able to find a wii and that we hate our jobs. When I look back on what people had to deal with during the great depression it is obvious to me that our generation is not made of what those people were made of. If the bottom does ever fall out of the economy we may get to learn some of the lessons that the depression people learned, and we may begin to appreciate the important things in life like health, having a roof over our heads, having a job, having close family ties, and having food to eat. Hopefully we'll never get to that point in our lives, but I have to wonder what point we will get to given the ever increasing US debt level.

But, we haven't felt hard economic times because of readily available credit and an ever increasing money supply. Hell, I had a neighbor finance their 120K backyard extravaganza by getting their home re-appraised for 150K more than they purchased it for 3 years prior. Regarding of what the hell they put in their backyard they are underwater on their mortgage at the moment.

We were going to do the backyard this past year but I put it off another year because something tells me I'll be paying about 25% less than the current going rates.

In order to pay off the debt you can do it one of two ways... deflate the debt (painful) and push the money armagedeon button and increase supply to the point you reinflate making debt cheaper (less painful in the near term)

Eventually things have to balance out and we're about to catch a wave of it in 08-09.

I feel sorry for who ever gets elected in November because there isn't much they'll be able to do.

The rest of the world is already bailing out the US consumer and they've been financing the US consumer for quite some time. The reason being if they don't their economies go to the shitter as well.

Hopefully the solution can be reached without too much pain. I'll stand on the sidelines and watch what is happening and adjust accordingly although I'm leaning towards a general reinflation of currencies which would mean a global debasement of currencies against gold.

Gold took a decent hit today when the USD rallied across the board on the Eurobank's statements they maybe be turning dovish (decrease interest rates to stave off economic slowdown) from being very hawkish (steady rates or increasing rates to stave off inflation).

[mikeb]

But, we haven't felt hard economic times because of readily available credit and an ever increasing money supply.


I agree with this. I've always said we would never have $100k houses and $40k cars if it were not for easy credit.

[01WhiteCobra]

I agree with this. I've always said we would never have $100k houses and $40k cars if it were not for easy credit.

Eventually it gotta go down. :D

Edit: the chart dies after awhile. Here is a link to the site where you can re-create the graph.

http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/frbg19/mh01

http://www.economagic.com/gif/g76018507801171702636461122967004.gif

[mikeb]

Eventually it gotta go down. :D

http://www.economagic.com/gif/g76018507801171702636461122967004.gif

It's like when you play monopoly for too long and the bank runs out of money :)

[AL P]

To me the mortgage delinquency rate trend says it all. People value their homes less than credit cards and cars in that graph. It is a sign of modern times to be in that mindset. After all, you simply "can't live" without a car or some credit cards but you can always rent an apartment. This mindset is what has got us to where we are today.

You only have to drive around Plano and see all of the 50, 60, 70 even 80 thousand dollar cars that are driven on a daily basis to realize the mindset of people. Granted, some of the people have money to burn but i don't think that begins to justify what you see driving down the road. It's all built on credit. Someone already made the point that cheap, easy credit has driven houses and car prices higher and higher. And that is correct, it's driven this economy for years. 01Whitecobra has made the case that credit in general can't keep going like it has. On a more micro scale think of it like this...will people buy a $30K Honda Accord when they can't finance it for 2%? I don't think they will, I think that lack of consumption on a more grand scale, in everything from cars to appliances, will lead to a huge crash of the overall economy the minute people can't finance whatever it is they want.

We've already seen this effect in commercial real estate. The lack of cheap easy money means things are devalued. And it happened overnight. Literally. Transactions are down a little but things are just worth less. What happens when that effect is seen at Best Buy or Wal-mart?

The music is going to stop. Don't get me wrong, it may not be in 2008/09 but it has to some time. Those charts can't keep going up.

And yes, of course, the question is "how can I capitalize?". I'll let you know when I think of something.

[Mustangman_2000]

We actually have unanimity in the Government regarding the economy. It's nice to see there is a stimulus package in the works, but I wonder what the sacrifice will ultimately be and in what sectors.

[ayzo]

We can't really stimulate or rate cut our way out of this mess, its what got us here in the first place. Chances are that the proposed tax rebate is only going to make things worse because it will just make our trade deficit much higher. It will help out a few banks with delinquent credit card customers but my bet is people buy plasma tvs made in Japan, ipods made in China, and new shoes made in Taiwan. Expect a few home builders, banks, and lenders to get wiped out, the rest will be dependent on foreign money.

[mikeb]

We can't really stimulate or rate cut our way out of this mess, its what got us here in the first place. Chances are that the proposed tax rebate is only going to make things worse because it will just make our trade deficit much higher. It will help out a few banks with delinquent credit card customers but my bet is people buy plasma tvs made in Japan, ipods made in China, and new shoes made in Taiwan. Expect a few home builders, banks, and lenders to get wiped out, the rest will be dependent on foreign money.

I see bush's ideas of giving people small checks as similar (and as worthless as) pissing on a gasoline fire. People will just spend it on worthless crap like beer and cigarettes, and will be in exactly the same situation as they were in before. It is not enough money to allow people to modify their debt situation, which is what would help people more.

The ideas for tax cuts and incentives for business investment make me happier.

This generation has no incentive to save a dime and lives on debt, and as the US population goes so does the US itself. I believe that the US is about to find out the true cost of that strategy.

[AL P]

Market is getting destroyed, have the chickens finally come home to roost?

[01WhiteCobra]

I think if we quit giving money to other countries ewach month for "aide" we wouldn't be in this so called debt to other countries. Hell we give something like 100 million each month to Palestine!!! Rediculous if you ask me, I mean we give and give and now they are talking about cashing in on other debts we "owe" them. (Just generally speaking about countries all over not Palestine in particular there.)

Where do you get that figure? The US has averaged 85 million a year to Palestine since the 93 Declaration of Principles.

But forgetting aide at the moment we are in debt to countries like Japan and China because we import more than we export. Our debt is created by trade imbalances.

But yes, eventually China and Japan are gonna want a return on their investment in the US consumer.

In other news, Bush detailed his plan for economic stimulation and the markets promptly turned from being positive for the day to negative for the day.

[aggie97]

This generation has no incentive to save a dime and lives on debt, and as the US population goes so does the US itself. I believe that the US is about to find out the true cost of that strategy.

Yep, because you can just "walk away" from unsecured debt....and why not? Why pay $800 in debt off when you can get a new plasma that is YOURS?! :rolleyes:

I agree that the spending/credit habits of the US citizen are what is dooming this situation. toss in the aid we throw away, illegal immigration costs, the fact that corporations are chasing quick money instead of long term stability so Officers can pad their multi-million dollar salaries, and the general fact the us consumer makes ZERO attempts to end the cycle of endless buying....to say we are fucked is an understatement.

It's high time that the US Gov get run like a corporation instead of a sympathetic bankrupt charity with untrained monkeys at the helm... :mad:

[shlby123]

Who decides Social Security? It's a federal bag right? Since the majority of guys in the upper offices are all geriatrics, doesnt it make it more than a little unfair and biased. We;d never get a change there because those fogeys want to "get theirs" me? They can keep every fucking penny I've had to give up to them...just stop taking now! fuck! :o

[mikeb]

Who decides Social Security? It's a federal bag right? Since the majority of guys in the upper offices are all geriatrics, doesnt it make it more than a little unfair and biased. We;d never get a change there because those fogeys want to "get theirs" me? They can keep every fucking penny I've had to give up to them...just stop taking now! fuck! :o

{speculation ahead}

When social security finally crosses that line where it begins to cause pain to the feds IMO you'll see a "means test" enacted that they'll use to decide who to pay and how much. I suspect that a portion of that test will be whether theoretically you "should" have been able to save for retirement, but if you didn't save you'll be ineligible to collect social security. Note that this leaves open the door to continue to give government money to the "poor and disenfranchised", who of course will continue to vote democrat.

{/end speculation}

[32VfromHell]

Yep, because you can just "walk away" from unsecured debt....and why not? Why pay $800 in debt off when you can get a new plasma that is YOURS?! :rolleyes:

I agree that the spending/credit habits of the US citizen are what is dooming this situation. toss in the aid we throw away, illegal immigration costs, the fact that corporations are chasing quick money instead of long term stability so Officers can pad their multi-million dollar salaries, and the general fact the us consumer makes ZERO attempts to end the cycle of endless buying....to say we are fucked is an understatement.

It's high time that the US Gov get run like a corporation instead of a sympathetic bankrupt charity with untrained monkeys at the helm... :mad:


If the US consumer makes an attempt to stop the cycle of spending, this economy crumbles like a house of cards.

[aggie97]

If the US consumer makes an attempt to stop the cycle of spending, this economy crumbles like a house of cards.

that already fell...? Keep in mind the spending they are doing is primarily on credit they will NEVER pay off....so they are paying interest back to the banks who aren't even breaking even any more...not eliminating debt by paying it off. The bankruptcy laws were re-written to prevent a lot of this but it was too little too late. The damage had already been done.

If they stop buying on credit for bling, the banks have fewer write downs and get healthy again. I don't mind people paying cash for shit, it's the buying on credit then walking away from the payment that is killing things.

[01WhiteCobra]

It's high time that the US Gov get run like a corporation instead of a sympathetic bankrupt charity with untrained monkeys at the helm... :mad:

Running a government like a corporation would implode any nation.

[32VfromHell]

that already fell...? Keep in mind the spending they are doing is primarily on credit they will NEVER pay off....so they are paying interest back to the banks who aren't even breaking even any more...not eliminating debt by paying it off. The bankruptcy laws were re-written to prevent a lot of this but it was too little too late. The damage had already been done.

If they stop buying on credit for bling, the banks have fewer write downs and get healthy again. I don't mind people paying cash for shit, it's the buying on credit then walking away from the payment that is killing things.


Our economy is focused on consumer spending. The hiccups we have seen the past year is nothing compared to a radical change in consumer spending and what that would do. :(

[01WhiteCobra]

If they stop buying on credit for bling, the banks have fewer write downs and get healthy again. I don't mind people paying cash for shit, it's the buying on credit then walking away from the payment that is killing things.

Dude, you just wrote about why America has been successful for at least the past 3 decades.

Time to pay the piper.

I'm not saying its right or wrong, someone alot smarter than me can debate that, I'm just looking to take advantage of the situation and profit from it.

[aggie97]

Running a government like a corporation would implode any nation.

We can dream can't we...? :o

Hell, I work for the Postal Service and we are a government agency, however are run like a corporation. We operate purely off of what we take in from sales, but are held to GSA standards for everything (Huge overhead costs) AND have a retirement program probably better than the UAW to pay for... If we don't have money to fix buildings...they don't get fixed.


There are HUGELY valid points all throughout this thread which just proves that this is a multi-faceted 50 headed monster clusterfuck waiting to explode...all the while being steered by a group that doesn't know HOW to fix it or have the desire to do so anyway because it isn't in their best interest or they would be out of a job.

You are right...it's time to eat the big shit sandwich and just bear through it. However, too many people will complain and get appeased with band aid fixes and it will only get worse over time till it becomes even more painful. Wait till gas goes over $4/gal this summer! Americans have been lazy to accept change and innovation for decades where as the Japanese and others have embraced it along the way and looked ahead to be prosperous for the next 100 years. Were fucked for the next 15 years and longer if wholesale changes to the way we live and conduct ourselves aren't made now.

I too sit around and brain storm for ways to keep putting food on my table and keep the nice things I have. I stopped looking for the high paying jobs that come and go and took a decent job with the PO...they will never get rid of junk mail and that is what pays the bills around here so I am pretty safe. Add to the fact that most of my co-workers have 30+ years and are about to retire and the term job security is actually not a concept, but reality once again!

Ah, buy lots of firearms and live your own little life while rest of the world goes to shit...in other words, survive. :rolleyes:

[01WhiteCobra]

We can dream can't we...? :o

Hell, I work for the Postal Service and we are a government agency, however are run like a corporation. We operate purely off of what we take in from sales, but are held to GSA standards for everything (Huge overhead costs) AND have a retirement program probably better than the UAW to pay for... If we don't have money to fix buildings...they don't get fixed.


There are HUGELY valid points all throughout this thread which just proves that this is a multi-faceted 50 headed monster clusterfuck waiting to explode...all the while being steered by a group that doesn't know HOW to fix it or have the desire to do so anyway because it isn't in their best interest or they would be out of a job.

You are right...it's time to eat the big shit sandwich and just bear through it. However, too many people will complain and get appeased with band aid fixes and it will only get worse over time till it becomes even more painful. Wait till gas goes over $4/gal this summer! Americans have been lazy to accept change and innovation for decades where as the Japanese and others have embraced it along the way and looked ahead to be prosperous for the next 100 years. Were fucked for the next 15 years and longer if wholesale changes to the way we live and conduct ourselves aren't made now.

I too sit around and brain storm for ways to keep putting food on my table and keep the nice things I have. I stopped looking for the high paying jobs that come and go and took a decent job with the PO...they will never get rid of junk mail and that is what pays the bills around here so I am pretty safe. Add to the fact that most of my co-workers have 30+ years and are about to retire and the term job security is actually not a concept, but reality once again!

Ah, buy lots of firearms and live your own little life while rest of the world goes to shit...in other words, survive. :rolleyes:

I knew the post service was gonna come up. You are absolutely correct. Hell, the fact I can put a (what now, 45 cents stamp or something?) on an envelope and it can get anywhere in the country in a few days is awesome. Hell, I might even pay more!

Lol at the lots of firearms things. I know someone who is doing just that. Someone I thought was a little more grounded.

World ain't bad. Just have a little pain to go through. Sort of like a woman giving child birth except we're going to give birth to another bull run expansion.

Lots of analogies... were about to wake up with a hell of a hangover (but it gets better as the day goes on), child birth (massive pain but you love the kid after its here)...

Just have to stay flexible and watch and see what happens and figure out a way to take advantage of it.

I'm been in cash with my equities day trading account for almost 3 months now just waiting for the markets to tell me what to do. While my SEP-IRA is taking a little beating its up over the long term but while I'm waiting for the equities to let me in on an direction I've been playing currencies on a day to day basis for the past couple of months.

My SEP-IRA (mostly index funds in US and foreign markets) is down about 10% this year so far. As a constrast (I'm seriously not bragging I just want to show there is always money to be made somewhere) here are my percentage changes in my currency trading account each trading day I've traded so far this year:

7.46%, 18.99%, 9.71%, 1.50%, -3.34% (WTF? haha), 1.08%, 4.66%, 2.56%, 3.67%, 6.11%, 4.08%, 7.86%, 11.15%

For a 104.95% increase (on total account not just trades) in 2008.

The funny thing is most of the money was made being LONG the US Dollar and short other currencies. Was up 18.36% in December although I didn't trade the last 1/2 of the month because of the holidays.

For all the doom and goom about the greenback it has freakin' rocked against other currencies in the world. I'm not saying I'm George Soros or anything but, damn, I know what markets are volatile (good for day trading) and what the hell a chart is telling me about price.

[shlby123]

World ain't bad. Just have a little pain to go through. Sort of like a woman giving child birth except we're going to give birth to another bull run expansion.



That's what keeps me motivated. I make take years and years but when the bull is ready, I'll be ready to ride the waves of money where ever it may lead.

[01WhiteCobra]

LMAO! Just saw this while watching Kudlow and Co. on CNBC.

http://www.feedthepig.org/

[TexasDevilDog]

JPMorgan is girding for home prices to decline further in 2008 by 5 percent to 10 percent; Citigroup's estimate of 7 percent falls within that range, too.

I just got back from Denver. I could throw a rock and hit three forclosed properties from my ex's house.

[66Deuce]

Read my gold thread. It has nothing to do with the "fucking illegals". If anything the "fucking illegals" have kept the farce going.

Shit happened along time ago. Jose ain't got nothing to do with it.

I bet if you asked most city-dwelling people during the great depression if they would rather have gold or food, they would choose the food.

Are you saying that the illegals don't add to a downward economy? Do you feel like our current immigration policies should be left alone or forgone?

[01WhiteCobra]

I bet if you asked most city-dwelling people during the great depression if they would rather have gold or food, they would choose the food.

Are you saying that the illegals don't add to a downward economy? Do you feel like our current immigration policies should be left alone or forgone?

Yep, I'm saying this country was fucked well before the illegals. In fact, the illegals helped keep the farce going a little longer.

I bet if you asked most city dwelling people during the depression if they would have rather had gold instead of the bullshit money they were receiving at the time in order to survive they would have picked gold.

Those that owned the gold said.. Depression? What depression?

What I'm saying is step beyond the political bullshit that is being said and look for the real problems in the US. It ain't immigration. The same problems we are experiencing today existed in the 70s, 80s and 90s. Messicans ain't got nothing to do with it.

[Sean88gt]

Currency pimp.

Can I bring my laptop and come trade next to you?:D

[01WhiteCobra]

Can I bring my laptop and come trade next to you?:D

I can show you a rather easy way to trade the Pound against the Dollar (and vice versa.) Good for about 200+ points a month (on average for the past year.) Sometimes ya' got to wake up in the middle of the night but its worth it.

Depending on leverage you can make $10-$50 per point (anything over you have to deal with slippage that will change results). Drawn down could be between $200-500 but it hasn't had a losing month in over a year.

Not a get rich quick scheme but it works.

[Sean88gt]

I don't sleep anymore and I don't try to get rich quick or borrow my way to appearing wealthy:o

I just want to 1) do it because I enjoy it and 2) have a side way to make some cash that I can hide from the wife.

What kind of investment are we talking?

[01WhiteCobra]

I don't sleep anymore and I don't try to get rich quick or borrow my way to appearing wealthy:o

I just want to 1) do it because I enjoy it and 2) have a side way to make some cash that I can hide from the wife.

What kind of investment are we talking?

Spot currency. You can start small and build up. PM if you are interested and I'll set you up.

[66Deuce]

Yep, I'm saying this country was fucked well before the illegals. In fact, the illegals helped keep the farce going a little longer.

I bet if you asked most city dwelling people during the depression if they would have rather had gold instead of the bullshit money they were receiving at the time in order to survive they would have picked gold.

Those that owned the gold said.. Depression? What depression?

What I'm saying is step beyond the political bullshit that is being said and look for the real problems in the US. It ain't immigration. The same problems we are experiencing today existed in the 70s, 80s and 90s. Messicans ain't got nothing to do with it.

You don't see a problem with illegals sponging free healthcare and sending money back home instead of spending it here?

Wow.

[Sean88gt]

You don't see a problem with illegals sponging free healthcare and sending money back home instead of spending it here?

Wow.

I don't think he is saying that at all. It is a problem, but the foundation had eroded long before.

[01WhiteCobra]

You don't see a problem with illegals sponging free healthcare and sending money back home instead of spending it here?

Wow.

I'm saying you could fix that problem and the real problem with America still isn't solved.

Wow.

[66Deuce]

I'm saying you could fix that problem and the real problem with America still isn't solved.

Wow.

What exactly do you consider the "real problem"? If this country is so fucked, why stay? Are you being held here against your will?

[black01gt]

What exactly do you consider the "real problem"? If this country is so fucked, why stay? Are you being held here against your will?
Now THAT'S "cut and run". Where ya gonna go anyway?

Costa Rica for me...shhhhh

[01WhiteCobra]

What exactly do you consider the "real problem"? If this country is so fucked, why stay? Are you being held here against your will?

When the fuck did I say I didn't like this country?

Country is fine. Illegal immigration ain't the biggest fucking problem we face.

Which part of this statement don't you understand?

Yee-fucking-ha redneck.

The real problem is we've been growing this country since WWII by inflating currency by printing money and having easy credit. Would you like to discuss it and I can show you how the illegal immigration problem is nothing but a piss stain on a pair of jeans compared to it? Or is that too much information for your little brain?

[01WhiteCobra]

Now THAT'S "cut and run". Where ya gonna go anyway?

Costa Rica for me...shhhhh

Duece is just one of the mindless little dolts that the politicians prey on.

But, yea, a nice offshore Costa Rican company doesn't sound like a bad idea. Hmmm... little off-shore hedge fund action... not that I'm working on that.

[black01gt]

But, yea, a nice offshore Costa Rican company doesn't sound like a bad idea. Hmmm... little off-shore hedge fund action... not that I'm working on that.
Cut me in on what you're not working on... ;)

warning: I'm a finanancial planning retard.

On a side note. I've been reworking the look for my Stang. What do you think?

http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c205/FeatMike/DonkStang.jpg

[66Deuce]

When the fuck did I say I didn't like this country?

Country is fine. Illegal immigration ain't the biggest fucking problem we face.

Which part of this statement don't you understand?

Yee-fucking-ha redneck.

The real problem is we've been growing this country since WWII by inflating currency by printing money and having easy credit. Would you like to discuss it and I can show you how the illegal immigration problem is nothing but a piss stain on a pair of jeans compared to it? Or is that too much information for your little brain?

First you say the country is fucked, now you say it's fine. You need to get conscious. Or maybe you need to take a class on how to post on the internet?

[aggie97]

First you say the country is fucked, now you say it's fine. You need to get conscious. Or maybe you need to take a class on how to post on the internet?

you are a fucking moron. :rolleyes:

[66Deuce]

you are a fucking moron. :rolleyes:

Coming from someone who believes an inferior motor such as a mod motor is better than a pushrod motor?

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

Mod motors cannot pull in enough air naturally aspriated! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[aggie97]

Coming from someone who believes an inferior motor such as a mod motor is better than a pushrod motor?

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!

Mod motors cannot pull in enough air naturally aspriated! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thank you for proving my point. :rolleyes:

[66Deuce]

Thank you for proving my point. :rolleyes:

Don't you have a sequential turn signal kit to install on something you polesmoker?

[aggie97]

Don't you have a sequential turn signal kit to install on something you polesmoker?

You are on a roll...care to make yourself look even more stupid?!

[66Deuce]

You are on a roll...care to make yourself look even more stupid?!

Are you going to make an attempt at a point or just keep jumping in to make your useless judgements?

[aggie97]

Are you going to make an attempt at a point or just keep jumping in to make your useless judgements?

YOU made my point that you are a fucking moron. I didn't have to say shit to make that apparent. :rolleyes:

[AL P]

Asian markets destroyed overnight. Thank god for MLK day and the markets being closed. Hopefully they will come up overnight tonight, if not tomorrow is going to be really, really rough.

[AL P]

I'm betting the Fed will lower rates before the next meeting. I can totally see a disaster tomorrow, margin calls for everyone. A lot of crying on Wall St. He's going to be under tremendous pressure to pull a Greenspan...

[ayzo]

I'm betting the Fed will lower rates before the next meeting. I can totally see a disaster tomorrow, margin calls for everyone. A lot of crying on Wall St. He's going to be under tremendous pressure to pull a Greenspan...

Of course he'll cut but it won't do anything to help the market because the money has already been lost. I still don't understand why investors can't get it inside their heads that people aren't going to stick around and pay a mortgage for $300,000 when their house is really worth $200,000. Anybody with half a brain would walk away and tell the bank to either foreclose or negotiate a new mortgage at a lower value. No matter which way you slice it they lose money, and when banks can't afford to lend out money our credit based economy gets dragged down as well. 218 lenders have already gone under and by the time this is all done many more will go and probably a major bank or two.

[01WhiteCobra]

First you say the country is fucked, now you say it's fine. You need to get conscious. Or maybe you need to take a class on how to post on the internet?

The country is fine and its fucked at the same time. Those who are fucked are about to take it up the ass very bad.

Those who realized what was happening are gonna be fine. Which one are you?

Maybe you should take a course in basic economics.

Every world currency is about to go through a major reflation (with maybe the exception of the Australian dollar where the economy is actually still pretty heated and will benefit from the price of gold rising)

[01WhiteCobra]

I'm betting the Fed will lower rates before the next meeting. I can totally see a disaster tomorrow, margin calls for everyone. A lot of crying on Wall St. He's going to be under tremendous pressure to pull a Greenspan...

But where is he gonna pull it? Tech is gone. Housing is gone. Where do you reinflate wealth now?

[01WhiteCobra]

And 66Deuce... at the worst estimates illegals cost us 100 billion a year.

A few TRILLION was lost in capitalization in the world over the PAST MONTH. Hell, 400 billion was lost in the global markets today. Pretty sure the US markets will come close to matching that tomorrow.

The US is an 11 Trillion dollar economy which makes illegals, at worst, 1% of the economy.

Do you really think the US should spend that much time on illegals? The housing market meltdown will be worth over a trillion dollars in fucked over people over the next year.

The economy is going into recession (if it isn't already, no one knows) and the illegal problem is about to correct itself without any intervention. No reason to come to the states if there isn't any work.

If big numbers scare you, I'll put it in context for you. If you make 11,000 a year, the illegal "problem", at worst estimates, amounts to $100. The housing implosion is worth about $1,000.

[AL P]

But where is he gonna pull it? Tech is gone. Housing is gone. Where do you reinflate wealth now?

Not only that but oil related stocks are taking a dump too.

It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow, that is for sure!!

[Strychnine]

So someone spell this out simply for me...

The markets tank tomorrow. What happens to me?

[AL P]

So someone spell this out simply for me...

The markets tank tomorrow. What happens to me?

You get a live snake shoved up your ass...

[mikeb]

Not only that but oil related stocks are taking a dump too.

It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow, that is for sure!!

I just checked nymex oil future and it's at $88.64. A far cry from $99+ we were seeing just a few weeks ago. Hopefully some speculators are getting it up the ass on oil right now :D

[01WhiteCobra]

I just checked nymex oil future and it's at $88.64. A far cry from $99+ we were seeing just a few weeks ago. Hopefully some speculators are getting it up the ass on oil right now :D

I think they will be.

Slumping global economy doesn't bode well for oil demand.

[slow99]

I think they will be.

Slumping global economy doesn't bode well for oil demand.

Where do you have the DJIA futures closing? Was it the 11,753, off 353, I'm seeing? I can't find it on Yahoo and Fidelity for some reason.

[Strychnine]

You get a live snake shoved up your ass...


Venomous?

[01WhiteCobra]

Where do you have the DJIA futures closing? Was it the 11,753, off 353, I'm seeing? I can't find it on Yahoo and Fidelity for some reason.

Sorry, didn't see this yesterday. At that time Globex was quoting down around 500.

The emergency rate cut helped a little but all it did was slow down selling a little.

On the charts I can see a DOW at 11,100 looking at the technical charts. But it doesn't mean it will happen. Alot of earning reports this week which could make the market go either way.

[jyro]

The steel plant is rolling one of it's largest rebar rollings in recent years, over 5000 tons of rebar and 90% pre-sold. The cement plant has hundreds of trucks a day waiting to load when I pass through at 6:15 every morning .

Where is this recession? Frys is loaded with people buying new TV's to be ready for digital. At the local Walmart parking lot I can never find a parking spot within 15 cars of the front on any row.

You really want to know what I think.
Saul Alinsky was the subject of Hillary's senior thesis at Wellesley College

I'm sure Billary, as well as the Democratic party, in conjunction with the liberal media, adoped this statement as their plan to acheive change.

"They must feel so frustrated, so defeated, so lost, so futureless in the prevailing system that they are willing to let go of the past and chance the future. This acceptance is the reformation essential to any revolution."

this is the guiding light of modern democrats, IMHO

Democrats have been doing exactly this statement in the media as well as most every speech to the public in the last 7 years to regain their power.

The liberal media aids them in their efforts. This one statement explains why Democrats are acting like America's doomed.

They try with every action to convince the American public that America is broke, defeated, powerless, and voting for Democrats is the only possible way to save us, when , the truth is, it's not bad at all, economy is great, we are winning the war, we are near having a missle shield, we have a all volunteer military, more people that ever own homes, there is next to no unemployment, the air is cleaner now than it has been in 20 years, ect.

[01WhiteCobra]

jyro, keep the faith... I mean the Fed did an emergency rate cut for the fun of it just to see what it could do. Retail sales didn't suck during the Christmas season, seriously. You saw the cars.

[01WhiteCobra]

If you don't know who Bill Gross is... you should if you have any money invested in the markets. I'll even go out on a limb and say that the market will listen to Bill Gross more than any of the Fed Chairmen/women.

"It's a sad testament to think the Fed has to cut interest rates eight days in front of a meeting to salvage the equity markets. The U.S. economy is in a rather sad state of affairs in that it depends on housing and stock prices to keep going.''

-Bill Gross, founder and chief investment officer, Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO)

[AL P]

Jyro, the thing you have to remember is that the consumer buying the TV is what drives the economy, not the concrete factory. Remember there are a lot more TVs (or cars or widgets or whatever) sold than concrete.

No one is saying that TVs aren't being sold, all they are saying is that there aren't as many being sold. A 20% reduction in consumer spending is huge. That's not something you can really see unless you surveyed things on a large scale. IE, visited every Wal-mart in Dallas and counted the cars and compared them to the cars that were there a year ago.

At the end of the day I see your big point which is the fact that to a lot of us this doesn't mean shit. Right now the only thing I see is a lower balance in my e-trade account.

And I do agree about the liberal media hyping this thing up. No one wants to talk about the earnings of Pfizer, Johnson & johnson, or anything like that. We got no time for positive news, we are in a recession damn it!!

[White trash wagon]

They try with every action to convince the American public that America is broke, defeated, powerless, and voting for Democrats is the only possible way to save us, when , the truth is, it's not bad at all, economy is great, we are winning the war, we are near having a missle shield, we have a all volunteer military, more people that ever own homes, there is next to no unemployment, the air is cleaner now than it has been in 20 years, ect.

Wow, you think the Democratic party has the power to cause stock market drops all over the planet? Did they cause the sub-prime and SIV fiasco's too? Put on your tin foil hat........... Those clowns couldn't pull that off if they wanted to.

The current mess was caused by a simple fact..... GREED. Greed on the part of the lenders putting people in mortagages they couldn't possibly afford, and greed on the part of the people who signed these mortgages trying to live a bling bling lifestyle they can't afford.

We as a nation live FAR beyond our means, in both public life and government life. Consumers borrow money for things they can't afford, and this has come home to roost. Our government borrows trillions of dollars for things they can't afford, that will come home to roost too.

Scott

[jyro]

Wow, you think the Democratic party has the power to cause stock market drops all over the planet? Did they cause the sub-prime and SIV fiasco's too? Scott

The REPUBLICAN congress and Bill Clinton repealed the Glass-Steagall act that had been put in place after the great depression:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/glass_steagall_act.asp
"The Glass-Steagall Act was enacted during the Great Depression. It protected bank depositors from the additional risks associated with security transactions. The act was dismantled in 1999. Consequently, the distinction between commercial banks and brokerage firms has blurred; many banks own brokerage firms and provide investment services. "

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/would-glass-steagall-save-day-credit/story.aspx?guid=%7B3AA33D85-AD38-41B4-B300-033235B5734A%7D
"Glass-Steagall was passed by Congress to prohibit banks from owning full-service brokerage firms and vice versa so investment banking activities, such as underwriting corporate or municipal securities, couldn't be called into question and also to insulate bank depositors from the risks of a stock market collapse such as the one that precipitated the Great Depression. "

http://40yrs.blogspot.com/2008/01/bill-clinton-and-repeal-of-glass.html
"Over the past few years it has appeared that the every single rollback of Depression Era regulations has been a mistake."

[01WhiteCobra]

Indymac's CEO just said mortgage re-fi is soaring this month. "Rates locked in a long long time..." according to the CEO.

[Denny]

Indymac's CEO just said mortgage re-fi is soaring this month. "Rates locked in a long long time..." according to the CEO.
Little cushion for CFC (and the like)... for now.

[01WhiteCobra]

Little cushion for CFC (and the like)... for now.


Load up the truck

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=IMB