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View Full Version : Hey TDD how'd that bet against the dollar...


01WhiteCobra
04-30-2006, 01:54 PM
go for ya'. I'm so glad Big Ben came to his senses about interest rates. I love it when the government says, "We're for the strong dollar" and the printing press is working overtime.

Had positions in the Euro and Swiss Franc since last two weeks ago. Finally paid off big time on Friday.

Phillip
04-30-2006, 04:23 PM
what charting service do you use, I use Q-charts, and yours looks similar to mine.
Is there a particular technique you use to trade?

TexasDevilDog
04-30-2006, 04:30 PM
Nice. gold touch $655, 25 year high. Inflation adjusted peak in the earily 80s was over $2,000. If Iran shuts off the oil tap, watch out dollar.

USD$ index at
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?jav=adv&vol=Y&grid=Y&late=y&org=stk&sym=%24DXY&data=A&code=BSTK&evnt=adv

01WhiteCobra
04-30-2006, 05:03 PM
what charting service do you use, I use Q-charts, and yours looks similar to mine.
Is there a particular technique you use to trade?

That is MetaTrader. If you download it from http://www.strategybuilderfx.com/ they have a demo account that doesn't expire. For cash market FX I use www.forex.com.

Typically with currencies it is about following the trend and letting it move. I don't day-trade currencies way too much volality in the day and I don't want to watch it 24 hours a day. :D So I attempt to pick the overall trend and let it ride out the waves. I use a small enough percentage of total capital that I can ride out the waves without regard to margin calls.

So... once the Fed started talking like "Well... maybe we won't need to tighten too much more" I knew the dollar was gonna tank.

For US equities I use TeleCharts at http://www.worden.com for nightly scanning of stocks. I use Real Tick for real-time. I swing trade equities (been sucky lately) but look to find pullbacks from definite trends. A good example of my type of trading is ZOLT recently. You can see the pullbacks in its 20 point march from January until now. I let the stock pullback and start its uptrend (or reverse when shorting) again and jump in for the ride. Probably about a 60% success rate.

It's been a bitch lately because there is no trend to the market.

So... in short for US equities what I do is:

1. Determine overall market trend
2. Look for sectors that also are in the market direction
3. Look for stocks in the sector that are experiencing the same as 1 and 2.

But without a trending market (SP 500 has been range bound for almost 2 months now) it's been a pain in the ass.

While I wait for a defined trend I'm looking for pullbacks from energies and metals to go long in and pullbacks in real-estate to go short in. But after this weekend's scans I've found nothing of interest.

Lastly I play stock options looking that are setup using candlesticks analysis to try and pick bottom. I'm about 50-50 right now but only added options into the mix about 3 months ago.

TexasDevilDog
04-30-2006, 09:19 PM
So... once the Fed started talking like "Well... maybe we won't need to tighten too much more" I knew the dollar was gonna tank.

I think the FED maybe jaw boning the market to talk down the dollar. Seeing how the Chinese's currency is pegged to the dollar, they fall against everyone else. The more the USD falls the more pressure will come to bear on China to float their currency.

Plus the US trade deficit is over 6% gdp. Most countries don't survive being over 3%, but the USD is the world reserve currency. A falling dollar will help toward correcting that.

TexasDevilDog
04-30-2006, 11:16 PM
Gold touched $660 in Asia. USD losing again vs. Yen and Euro. :)

TexasDevilDog
05-02-2006, 11:24 AM
Gold spot touched $665 today.

In New York trading, the euro strengthened to $1.2642, up 0.6%. The dollar weakened to 113.24 yen, down 0.4%. The British pound was fetching $1.8383, up 0.9%, while the dollar changed hands at 1.2353 Swiss francs, down 0.6%.

Dollar is just going to keep falling until Bernanke raises interest rates to mop up the excess USDs. As the dollar falls commodities will go up, yep that includes oil which is up .45 to $74.15.

01WhiteCobra
05-02-2006, 01:56 PM
Gold spot touched $665 today.



Dollar is just going to keep falling until Bernanke raises interest rates to mop up the excess USDs. As the dollar falls commodities will go up, yep that includes oil which is up .45 to $74.15.

Closed at a 25 year high today.

TexasDevilDog
05-03-2006, 07:16 AM
Aussies did a surprise interest rate hike over night. It spiked the AU$ up. Gold spot touched $677 this morning. :)

TexasDevilDog
05-04-2006, 01:38 PM
UD$ index is current down .65% today.

Gold spot just touched $681/oz or about 220 gallons of gas per once. :)

I wish I would have filled up the back of my truck with gold a couple years ago.

32VfromHell
05-21-2006, 12:28 AM
01 White Cobra, darn, your PM box was full,but i wanted to ask you something about a threat im not sure i got to see your respone on, it was in a thread about indian-US relations, by-the-by, and i cant find the thread it was posted in via search as i had no idea what it was titled, =(

Thank ya