Tenn-Auburn

[HookEm]

Tenn 14, Auburn 21, 9:39 left in the 3rd

[greenrebel]

Hook'em is this good, bad, or doesn't do shit for UT?

[HookEm]

Hook'em is this good, bad, or doesn't do shit for UT?

An Auburn loss would put Texas in the BCS, so very good for Texas, and good for Ags, as it would put them in the Cotton.


full explanation from hornfans.com:
If Tennessee stuns Auburn on Saturday, I am 99.9% confident that Texas will go to the BCS.

The "Wedge" Issue
It's pretty simple. An Auburn loss means that Texas, Cal, and Auburn are all in the same boat. They are all one-loss teams. While the humans will punish the Tigers and almost unanimously put Auburn below both Texas and Cal (due to the recency of their loss, and the nature of their loss), the computers will not necessarily do the same.

If a computer spits out the following ranking (leave Utah constant, whether they are ahead of Cal or not, doesn't matter)
3 Texas
4 Cal
5 (or below) Auburn

it does Texas little good. Both Texas and Cal gain a computer spot, and nothing really changes. But if the following happens:

3 Texas
4 Auburn
5 Cal

That makes a very big difference. Texas gains a full computer ranking on Cal, and if it happens in a couple of the computers, it creates an essentially insurmountalbe computer lead.

So, if Auburn "wedges" between Texas and Cal in a computer poll, it is good. I'll indicate good "wedge" candidates in green, and bad ones (not likely to wedge) in red.

Sagarin gives very little love for Auburns SOS (#72) vs Cal (#13). It seems likely an Auburn loss sends them below both Texas and Cal.

Likewise with Massey. Auburn's schedule is #44, Cal's is #14. Auburn loss puts the Tigers behind both the Horns and the Bears.

A&H currently says Auburns' SOS is #47, vs Cal's at #44. It seems highly likely, aftern Aub plays Tenn, and Cal plays USM, that Auburn will be viewed as a stronger SOS. Therefore, I think Aub would fall below Texas in A&H if they lose, but not below Cal.

RB gives Cal a very low ranking, so its likely thrown out anyway. But we'll assume, for conservatism, that Aub falls below both Cal and Tex.

Colley already ranks Auburns schedule (#42) higher than Cal (#47). So this one's easy, and Auburn likely "wedges" between Texas and Cal here with a loss.

Wolfe is tricky, because it doesn't say (on the web at least) how each teams' schedule ranks. What may be encouraging is that Utah is already wedged between Texas and Cal here, so that makes the chances better that Auburn could also wedge between Texas and Cal.

So, what does this mean?

Wolfe "Wedge" Happens

3 Texas 0.8552
4 Cal 0.8464 a difference of 0.0087!!

(that would require 21/22 voters to favor Cal over Texas in their new point allocation, which is HIGHLY unlikely!)

Wolfe "Wedge" Doesn't Happen

3 Texas 0.8552
4 Cal 0.8498 still a difference of 0.0054!!

(that would require 13/14 voters to favor Cal over Texas in their new point allocation, which also seems HIGHLY unlikely!)

Why am I so confident a pro 13/14 voter swing in favor of Cal relative to Texas is unlikely? Because the voters are already about as "pro-Cal" as they can get (look at today's Statesman if you don't believe me). The only way it doesn't happen is if human voters are willing to wedge Auburn between Cal and Texas, which is not only wrong, it should be illegal. No sane voter would rank Auburn ahead of Texas (or Cal) after losing its most recent game to a far lower ranked Tennessee team, while Cal and Texas have both won 6 straight, and suffered their only losses to undefeated top teams.

[HookEm]

21-21 6:05 left in 3rd

[HookEm]

err...28-21, Auburn, 3:45 3rd

[greenrebel]

Well Tenn is screwed, we're out

[midnight]

Looks like UT vs UT in a bowl game.

[HookEm]

maybe, maybe not.

Cal is struggling, and Texas is just .013 of a pointbehidn them in the BCS. All it takes is a net drop of 4 in the puter polls, or for 3 voters to fli flop cal and texas.


But Auburn should be playing OU for the MNC.

USC is an overrated joke.

[HookEm]

Well Tenn is screwed, we're out

All USM has to do is play Cal close....and they're doing that, and more. Cal is up by 7, 14 min in the 4th, with USM driving.

[midnight]

maybe, maybe not.

Cal is struggling, and Texas is just .013 of a pointbehidn them in the BCS. All it takes is a net drop of 4 in the puter polls, or for 3 voters to fli flop cal and texas.


But Auburn should be playing OU for the MNC.

USC is an overrated joke.

I totally agree. Their receiving pity for what happened to them last year.

[HookEm]

I totally agree. Their receiving pity for what happened to them last year.

F them. Their conference is a joke.
We were a few bounces away from a TX OU MNC.